NH -CNN/WMUR poll release Tuesday 12/8/15 ( Rand @ 2%)

[francisco]

New Hampshire Poll which appears to meet criteria for inclusion in average for eligibility in the 12/15/2015 CNN Debate in Las Vegas, Nevada

(REPUBLICAN PRIMARY VOTERS ONLY "I’m going to read you the names of the candidates who are either running or considering running for the Republican nomination. If the Republican primary for president were held today, which of the following would you support for the Republican nomination Jeb Bush … Ben Carson … Chris Christie … Ted Cruz … Carly Fiorina … Jim Gilmore … Lindsey Graham … Mike Huckabee … John Kasich … George Pataki … Rand Paul … Marco Rubio … Rick Santorum … Donald Trump … or someone else?" ROTATE CANDIDATES

June 2015/ Sept.2015 / Dec. 2015

DONALD TRUMP 11% 26% 32%
MARCO RUBIO 6% 9% 14%
CHRIS CHRISTIE 5% 5% 9%
JEB BUSH 16% 7% 8%
JOHN KASICH 2% 7% 7%
TED CRUZ 3% 5% 6%
BEN CARSON 5% 8% 5%
CARLY FIORINA 6% 16% 5%
RAND PAUL 9% 3% 2%
LINDSEY GRAHAM 1% 1% 1%
MIKE HUCKABEE 2% * 1%
JIM GILMORE 0% 1% *
RICK SANTORUM 0% * *
GEORGE PATAKI 1% * 0%
BOB EHRLICH 0% --- ---
MARK EVERSON --- 0% ---
BOBBY JINDAL * 0% ---
PETER KING 0% --- ---
RICK PERRY 4% --- ---
SCOTT WALKER 8% * ---
SOMEONE ELSE – SPECIFY 1% * 0%
DK / NOT SURE 21% 11% 9%

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2015/images/12/08/relnh3.-.republicans.pdf

 

[NapoleonIII]

So this effectively means Rand is out of the main debate?

 

[CPUd]

So this effectively means Rand is out of the main debate?

No, he's just not qualified for it at this time, and this poll makes it a bit harder.

 

[Dianne]

Damn, this is so disappointing .

 

[francisco]

Rand's best shot for inclusion in main debate is to get some good results in Iowa. One poll at 6% would do it. Perhaps there will be a Des Moines Register poll that gets released by Sunday that meets the need. Or, two polls that average 5% would do it. *Fingers crossed*.

Meanwhile, it looks like Fiorina, Kasich, and Christie will all make main debate on basis of NH polls.

Looks like Huckabee and Santorum will not make the main debate, but definitely make it into the undercard.

There is a slight ambiguity in the rules, but it looks like Pataki and Graham will make it into the undercard. (Each has a total of more than 4 polls at 1% or more, within the group of all accepted National, IA, and NH polls). Gilmore will not make either the main or undercard debate.

So, Rand is the candidate most on the bubble. It looks like there will be either 8 or 9 candidates in the main debate, and either 4 or 5 candidates in the undercard.

 

[Liberty74]

Looks like Carson is pretty much toast. No traction in NH and fading fast in Iowa. And his support going to Rubio and/or Cruz in those states.

Still time and let's hope Rand does a sneak attack. Something has to change before Feb whether it be more people drop out or his message or some unforeseen event that allows Rand to rise...

 

[jllundqu]

Sad to think that it all rests on a few polls...

People can say "wait til they vote" all day... but if we are out of the main debate... it's over.

 

[francisco]

Sad to think that it all rests on a few polls...

People can say "wait til they vote" all day... but if we are out of the main debate... it's over.

I'm not sure if that's true. Rand could make a breakout appearance in the undercard, with more time to speak, and the ability to draw stark contrasts against Santorum and Graham. Could be a very vibrant FP debate. I'm actually torn in my thinking, about which debate would be better for Rand.

 

[NapoleonIII]

I'm not sure if that's true. Rand could make a breakout appearance in the undercard, with more time to speak, and the ability to draw stark contrasts against Santorum and Graham. Could be a very vibrant FP debate. I'm actually torn in my thinking, about which debate would be better for Rand.

Does the undercard debate even get any viewers?

 

[francisco]

Does the undercard debate even get any viewers?

Yes. Not as many as the main debate, to be sure. But if there are fireworks, there will be lots of news coverage, including immediately before the main debate. It could even frame the questions in the main debate.

Additional supporting evidence: Fiorina used her initial undercard appearance to launch her rise. Christie resurrected his campaign in the last undercard.

If Rand misses the cut into the main debate, he absolutely should seek to make sure he creates fireworks in the undercard.

 

[CPUd]

Some interesting plots:

 

[luctor-et-emergo]

Some interesting plots:

From that top graphic;

"and voters who are 65 and older (37%) are more likely to say they wouldn't vote for Trump under any circumstances."

So.. The 'old people', median age 68, that watch Fox News are more likely to NOT like Trump than others ?

Had to slap myself in the face a couple times, WHAT ? ?