New Paul/Conway Poll to be released ... UPDATE: Rand Paul up 5%

[Thargok]

We were both wrong. I gave the registered voters, but here is the actual numbers (from KY SOS - the CNN exit poll you referenced was wrong).

Party Turnout
Dem- 57.9%
Rep- 37%
Ind- 5.2%

This poll is:
Dem - 54%
Rep - 39%
Ind - 7%

So, actually this assumes the Dems will turn out at 3.9% lower, and Reps 2% higher. But the end comparison is the same. This poll assumes a GOP +5.9% swing.

So, still seems accurate to me.

It seems like they bumped the 3rd Congressional District up where Conway was winning and bumped down the 5th where Rand is winning coal votes.

 

[tangent4ronpaul]

Nothing like a poll paid for by someone who has endorsed your candidate's opponent....

LOL! - no kidding!

-t

 

[LibertyBrews]

I don't think Democratic turnout will be 54%, more like 49 to 51%. I think we can add about 3% to Paul's lead.

Also Conman has a net unfavourables of -4, while Paul has +5, also Conman has a high rate of neutrals 33%, Paul only 21%, that can only mean that more people are uncertain on Conman than on Paul, Paul has to show these neutrals what Conman's all about.

 

[klamath]

All Rand has to do is have a little over 2% of the undecideds break for him and he has it locked.

 

[ItsTime]

http://www.elect.ky.gov/NR/rdonlyre...5-5E9E438B2C7F/176733/turnoutSUMMARYGEN08.txt

Here's more precise numbers.

2008 Turnout

Dem - 1,076,583/1,861,577 = 57.8318%
Rep - 688,561/1,861,577 = 36.9880%
Indy - 96,433/1,861,577 = 5.1802

what about 2006?

 

[thomas-in-ky]

There are so many variables at play here. In KY, this is a local election year too. Every 4th year, we elect local offices. All politics is local, and the local races will affect turnout in various counties differently depending on the local dynamics in each county. But it would be fair to look at 2006. That was a "local election year" like 2010.

 

[LibertyEagle]

Get to calling. That's what you can do.

 

[sailingaway]

I actually didn't get all into the cross tabs this time, but Jake at pageone did. Did you see Rand's favorables are higher than McConnells (so much for a standard GOP candidate would be running better!) and positive, while Conway's are worse than both Rand's and McConnell's and are upside down?

From Jake, quoting the cross tabs:

"42% favorable for Rand Paul, 37% unfavorable, 21% neutral
40% favorable for Mitch McConnell, 33% unfavorable, 27% neutral
31% favorable for Jack Conway, 35% unfavorable, 33% neutral"

There is more.

http://pageonekentucky.com/2010/10/20/h-l-poll-rand-paul-48-jack-conway-43/

 

[Romulus]

That's how most polls are done.

I didnt know that... I figured they would be a little more in depth than that.

 

[UKJRC]

WKYT news in Lexington just said that Rand Paul's anti washington message was resonanting with voters and that Conway's attacks have had no positive effect on Conway's numbers. Tomorrow they said they would have more poll numbers shedding light onto the questions of whether Jack Conway was too closely associated with Obama And if Dr. Paul's views where out of touch with Kentucky.

 

[sailingaway]

WKYT news in Lexington just said that Rand Paul's anti washington message was resonanting with voters and that Conway's attacks have had no positive effect on Conway's numbers. Tomorrow they said they would have more poll numbers shedding light onto the questions of whether Jack Conway was too closely associated with Obama And if Dr. Paul's views where out of touch with Kentucky.

I'm hearing all sorts of rumors. I guess we'll find out tomorrow.

 

[UKJRC]

I'm hearing all sorts of rumors. I guess we'll find out tomorrow.

What are you hearing?

 

[UKJRC]

Also I don't know if the campaign senses an opening or something, but CONway has absolutely been getting slaughtered on all the ads for the evening news in Lexington. I kept switching back and forth between WLEX and WKYT and I counted 8 Paul commercials (2 false witness, 1 chamber of commerce, 3 cap and trades, and 2 RSCC utility ) and 4 Conway commercials (2 aqua buddha's and 2 medicare deductibles).

 

[specsaregood]

I didnt know that... I figured they would be a little more in depth than that.

It has nothing to do with "more in depth" and everything to do with math. You know how they get that "margin of error"? It is due to the sample size. This poll had a MOE (confidence interval of 4%) For a population size of 1,827,586 (everybody that voted in the 2008 election.) you need to poll 600 voters. So 625 is right on target.

Here is a fancy online calculator that will tell you how many you need to poll for the population to get a margin of error.
http://www.surveysystem.com/sscalc.htm