I think pollsters were just being very careless in aug/sept. I mean, CNN/time in september said its a tie, rasumssen said its +15. Maybe both were using poor, careless methodologies back then since it doesn't matter what the results are, and maybe the truth is that it has consistenly only been Rand by 5-10 for a while. Now that polls count for their ratings, we are seeing more careful polling and less undecided voters.
New Paul/Conway Poll to be released ... UPDATE: Rand Paul up 5%
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RonPaulFanInGA
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Mason-Dixon is a really good pollster.
low preference guy
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and we're up by 5, after all that Conway threw at Rand. it seems really hard for Conway to win at this point. they would have to have a perfect campaign and attack ads after attack ads (something better than AB), and at the same time Rand's campaign would have to respond awfully. that's the only chance Conway has. I don't think Rand is going to allow it.
one important thing: with the aqua buddha scandal, I expect independents to leave Conway in droves. so the possible effectiveness of the AB ad to encourage religious voters to stay home will likely be outweighed by the shift among independents.
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low preference guy
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all the leaks he published in this campaign have been right so far
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Paul under 50 is concerning, but let's put things in perspective. Even Conway's internal poll had Rand at 47%, so I think we can assume that that's his floor in this race. In looking at the polls, 4 of the last 6 non internal polls have shown Conway at either the high 30's or low 40's, including the recent Rasmussen. If this new number is accurate, Conway would still be at 43%. The fact is, Conway is having a very hard time getting past that 43% in non internal polling, while Paul in the same timeframe has polled as low as 46(In the poll taken the first week of September, and likely the most inaccurate poll) And as high as 54%. He's likely below 50 now, but I think it's safe to assume he's in the high 40's, while Jack is in the low 40's. So he definitely has the edge in this race.
Right now, I'd say most of the undecided voters are probably conservatives who want to vote for Rand but have misgiving based on what they may have heard. Even with all the attacks, these voters are not really going to Conway, and I don't think they will. Come election day they'll either suck it up and vote for Rand or perhaps not vote at all, but if they're not sold on Conway at this point, I don't think he can win them over. Based on all this, Paul should win the undecided's enough to gain a victory of 52-54% or so, that's my prediction.
Right now, I'd say most of the undecided voters are probably conservatives who want to vote for Rand but have misgiving based on what they may have heard. Even with all the attacks, these voters are not really going to Conway, and I don't think they will. Come election day they'll either suck it up and vote for Rand or perhaps not vote at all, but if they're not sold on Conway at this point, I don't think he can win them over. Based on all this, Paul should win the undecided's enough to gain a victory of 52-54% or so, that's my prediction.
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sailingaway
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I don't know that I'm that excited. It is only 5 points. Granted it is 5 in the right direction, and explains why Conway sent out that 'Dem internal poll' in a preemptive move to the WaPo.
sailingaway
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Rand has said his polls were showing something like 8-11 consistently, so that makes sense.
I think the Libertarian Party of Kentucky should man up and endorse Rand. I don't understand why they think he is sooo far apart from them, and all their votes could amount to a few thousand in Rand's favor, if the race happened to be tight. I read an article where the other day where they only give Rand a "slight edge", and say there is no difference between Conway and Rand on military policy, which is completely untrue. Are they waiting for someone to run on the platform of Ludwig Von mises??
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trey4sports
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If Rand didnt have the "Paul" last name, and he was just another guy running for office I don't know if i'd be able to identify him as one of "us." He has had to run this race from the middle. I'll give him the benefit of the doubt though.
Absolutely! I mean come on, the corrupt politicians like Jack say and do anything to get elected all the time. Rand has to do what he has to do in order to get elected and then we can hold his feet to the fire once he's in there. But having Dad right down the street I'd say he'll keep him in line for the most part
MRoCkEd
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sailingaway
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I didn't even bother checking. But I guess I want to see the cross tabs.
amisspelledword
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9% undecided is still a lot
how do we win those in the next few days?
how do we win those in the next few days?
AuH20
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I'm scared of potential fraud in the 3rd and 6th districts. I think they'll put out the stops.
True, that's why we need to start hitting Conman with about 5 different things to drive up his negatives and then let him try and respond with only 10 days before the election. His tactics are BS and needs dealt with fiercely!
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