New NBC/WSJ National Poll (Dec 6 to 9)

[Robrank]

MoE: 4.9% for 400 respondents

Name New Poll% (Oct 29 Poll)

Trump 27% (23)
Cruz 22% (10)
Rubio 15% (11)
Carson 11% (29)
Bush 7% (8)
Fiorina 5% (3)
Huckabee 3% (3)
Christie 3% (3)
Paul 2% (2)
Kasich 2% (3)
All other candiates: NA

http://www.scribd.com/mobile/doc/293151693/15564-NBCWSJ-December-Poll-12-13-15-GOP-Ballot-Release-1

 

[hells_unicorn]

Utterly pointless and meaningless national poll, per usual. Everyone from Bush down to Kasich is within the margin of error of each other. Not to mention that most of these people are probably not strong supporters and will likely drift around to other candidates between now and Iowa, let alone afterward.

Nothing to see here, move along.

 

[PaleoPaul]

How the HELL is that know-nothing Fiorina doing better than Rand?! I get that Paris and San Bernardino changed the foreign policy and national security narratives, but even many of my neo-con friends say she's an empty suit!

 

[Mr.NoSmile]

Utterly pointless and meaningless national poll, per usual. Everyone from Bush down to Kasich is within the margin of error of each other. Not to mention that most of these people are probably not strong supporters and will likely drift around to other candidates between now and Iowa, let alone afterward.

Nothing to see here, move along.

Right, pointless because Paul isn't higher up. Well done.

 

[hells_unicorn]

Right, pointless because Paul isn't higher up. Well done.

If you want to cry about me not worshiping polling companies and noting flaws in their methods and very purpose, I am in a position to provide several boxes of tissues.

 

[Dianne]

How the HELL is that know-nothing Fiorina doing better than Rand?! I get that Paris and San Bernardino changed the foreign policy and national security narratives, but even many of my neo-con friends say she's an empty suit!

Probably because FOX has her on almost every day as though she is an authority on ISIS and the economy. They did the same thing to pump Christie up. It's either Fiorina, Christie or Bush on a daily basis.

If Rand wants to go up 10 points in the polls overnight, he should introduce a bill to begin impeachment proceedings against Obozo. Heaven knows, there are numerous laws he has intentionally broken and the Congress does nothing to get rid of him.

 

[Jan2017]

Crazy volatility between Cruz and Carson shows these polls are less level of confidence than the simplistic statistics 101 -
volatility shows all these polls can not be same level of confidence 95%

400 respondents (8 people average per state or would it be about 100 Californians and 2 Iowans based on population and electoral vote)
is all in this poll to predict the nation electorate of some N= 100 million (?)/or some 50 million GOP voters ?

How does it have a margin of error of 4.9% (?) - it is probably over +/- 10 % pts.

It is just like the averaging and now the whining about that and even using polling to decide a debate stage -
but it all is never based on the hard data published, the msm here is rounding the 400 respondents to predict how 50 million will vote,
then take that and don't round but simple average different margin of errors ?