New Hampshire poll: Trump surging

[YesI'mALiberal]

[h=1]NH GOP Poll Shows Bush the Early Leader, While Trump Advances[/h]
June 23, 2015

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (14 percent) leads businessman Donald Trump (11 percent) in the New Hampshire Republican presidential primary contest, according to a poll from the Suffolk University Political Research Center.
With the primary seven months away, the rest of the crowded GOP field remains in single digits, with Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker at 8 percent; Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) 7 percent; retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, 6 percent; and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, 5 percent. Following closely behind Christie were Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas); and businesswoman Carly Fiorina, who were tied at 4 percent each. Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and Ohio Gov. John Kasich were tied at 2 percent, while six other candidates, including former New York Gov. George Pataki, former Texas Gov. Rick Perry, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), and former Maryland Gov. Bob Ehrlich combined for 4 percent. A significant 29 percent were undecided.

more: https://www.suffolk.edu/news/60149.php

 

[Warlord]

Donald Trump surging

In New Hampshire:

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2015/...y-in-n-h-taking-second-place-in-suffolk-poll/

The poll has Rand Paul at 4%. I find that highly suspicious

 

[jj-]

The less interventionists have Trump and Rand. The pro-borders have Cruz (if by perception) and Trump. So Trump I think takes away from both Paul and Cruz.

 

[LawnWake]

It'll die down, his hair can't handle the surge.

 

[William Tell]

Republicans sure can be stupid, I see lots of them defending Trumps past support for Clinton's because essentially 'he's rich and he has to give them money'.

They don't have any respect for poor Clinton supporters though, lol.

I think all Clinton supporters are the same though.

 

[kbs021]

I think trump helps us in Iowa and NH. Once his stance on guns gets brought up, people won't vote for him just because he sounds tough on mexico. I think he is going to eventually be shown to be more establishment which shouldn't dilute Rand's vote. I think he will hurt walker, cruz, etc. much much more.

 

[libertyplz]

Dave Weigel isn't too convinced either

Either way, likely just a temp. bump then he will start trending back towards irrelevance.

 

[acptulsa]

Statement of Methodology: This survey of 500 likely Republican Primary voters was conducted between June 18 and June 22, 2015, and is based on live telephone interviews of adults who indicated they were planning to vote in the Republican presidential primary. Each area’s quota and demographic information -- including race and age -- were determined from 2010 Census data. Samples of both standard landline (65 percent) and cell phones (35 percent) were called using a probability-proportionate-to-size method, which means that the phone numbers assigned to each county were proportional to the number of likely voters expected based on similar open Republican primaries in past elections. New Hampshire’s 10 counties were grouped into four general regions. Respondents in the household were selected by initially asking for the youngest adult. The margin of sampling error for results based on the total sample is plus or minus 4.4 percentage points. Error margins increase for smaller subgroups in the cross-tabulation document which follows. All surveys may be subject to other sources of error, including, but not limited to coverage error and measurement error.

http://www.suffolk.edu/academics/10738.php

 

[juleswin]

The less interventionists have Trump and Rand. The pro-borders have Cruz (if by perception) and Trump. So Trump I think takes away from both Paul and Cruz.

We seriously need some way to tell when someone is using sarcasm on this site, maybe a sarcasm emojin tag. I get confused with posts like this. Is he serious or is he just using sarcasm? I really cant tell.

 

[luctor-et-emergo]

http://www.suffolk.edu/academics/10738.php

Respondents in the household were selected by initially asking for the youngest adult.

Odd, isn't Rand doing well among younger people ?

 

[luctor-et-emergo]

(copied this post (my post) from a duplicate thread)

http://www.suffolk.edu/academics/10738.php

Respondents in the household were selected by initially asking for the youngest adult.

Odd, isn't Rand doing well among younger people ?

 

[LatinsforPaul]

We seriously need some way to tell when someone is using sarcasm on this site, maybe a sarcasm emojin tag. I get confused with posts like this. Is he serious or is he just using sarcasm? I really cant tell.

No, he's serious because he has been spamming it all over the forums.

 

[LatinsforPaul]

more: https://www.suffolk.edu/news/60149.php

Great news for your Hillary.

 

[YesI'mALiberal]

Odd, isn't Rand doing well among younger people ?

Not really. Rand has never done better with young people, despite expectations. It's obvious why - young folks are flocking to Bernie.

 

[juleswin]

Not really. Rand has never done better with young people, despite expectations. It's obvious why - young folks are flocking to Bernie.

But we are talking about household that say they would vote in the republican primaries. The has the issue of NSA cornered which young people supposedly care about. I hate to be one to cheer a poll when I like the result and dismiss it when I don't like the result. But I think this poll got it wrong. Maybe it was bad sampling but something is off about it

 

[Sola_Fide]

Not really. Rand has never done better with young people, despite expectations. It's obvious why - young folks are flocking to Bernie.

Never? In your dreams dude. Hillary is going to crush Bernie like a cockroach. Rand will continue to do well with younger people.

 

[YesI'mALiberal]

Never? In your dreams dude. Hillary is going to crush Bernie like a cockroach. Rand will continue to do well with younger people.

I never said anything about Bernie winning - you must have dreamed that. But he will - and is - attract huge adoring and enthusiastic crowds of mainly young people *, but will get trounced in the elections. Like Ron Paul.



* including first time voters who, because of Bernie, will tell pollsters they're not going to vote in the GOP primary and therefore not show up in polls of GOP voters, juleswin

 

[juleswin]

Never? In your dreams dude. Hillary is going to crush Bernie like a cockroach. Rand will continue to do well with younger people.

I think the last poll that came out had Hillary at 75% and Bernie at 17%. Ron Paul did 100x better than him in a very crowded republican primary. Bernie unlike Paul have less than 0 chance of winning and when he loses, he will concede immediately and support the very corporatist big govt, big war candidate in Hillary. Bernie is bring the disaffected in for slaughter. He is the pied piper for the mainstream Democratic Party

 

[YesI'mALiberal]

Rand will continue to do well with younger people.

So far, Paul isn’t doing much better among young voters than the Republican nominee in 2012, Mitt Romney, or than Chris Christie, the New Jersey governor, is currently doing.

Since the beginning of the year, there have been eight live-interviewnational polls that detail results among young voters (ages 18 to 29 or 18 to 34), and matched Paul against former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Together, these polls give us the views of more than 1,000 young voters. The same polls matched Clinton against Christie. The surveys show that young voters don’t see any difference between Paul and other Republican politicians.

more here: http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-rand-paul-will-win-over-young-voters-myth/

 

[Sola_Fide]

more here: http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/the-rand-paul-will-win-over-young-voters-myth/

There's no doubt that liberalism and socialism are very popular with younger people, mostly because they are idiots that don't know the first thing about economics, business, or life itself. Some people grow up and unlearn their state-worship, but many don't.