New ARG Poll just out Rand beating Bush by 1%
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Yes, cutoff is 23 hours later in relative terms this time.
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"So the media won't let me be, or let me be me so let me see, they try to shut me down on FNC but it feels so empty without me!"
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http://www.quinnipiac.edu/news-and-events/quinnipiac-university-poll/
atleast one more coming out tomorrow. Has fox used quinnipiac before?
atleast one more coming out tomorrow. Has fox used quinnipiac before?
Yes, as basis for both National and Iowa averages for debate qualifications
Last Iowa Quinnipiac was 1/5 thru 1/10 and had Rand 2, Bush 3
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I can see why Rand campaign thinks they are in
if Quinnipiac comes in, even if Rand gets 2%, what it does is drops KBUR where Bush has 7% and Rand has 3%. (This is a huge poll for Rand to have drop off in a good way)
so even if Bush gets 6% and Rand gets 2% - but I doubt that Bush even jumps to 4% or 5% when every metric has him nose diving in Iowa - Rand would still be in.
Rand has been up in every poll in Iowa as far as I can tell
if Quinnipiac comes in, even if Rand gets 2%, what it does is drops KBUR where Bush has 7% and Rand has 3%. (This is a huge poll for Rand to have drop off in a good way)
so even if Bush gets 6% and Rand gets 2% - but I doubt that Bush even jumps to 4% or 5% when every metric has him nose diving in Iowa - Rand would still be in.
Rand has been up in every poll in Iowa as far as I can tell
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Unfortunately, Quinnipiac if it comes in and is used displaces the Des Moines Register (Rand +1 versus Bush) poll
Regardless of outcome with Quinnipiac (or other polls), If KBUR is used, we’re likely screwed because that one is a very bad outlier with Rand at -4 versus Bush. Note that the Campaign’s Chip Englander did not mention this poll in today’s tweet and presumably does not think it meets the standard for inclusion.
The current order of already-released Iowa polls that are possible candidates for inclusion, from most recent to least recent, with score versus Bush shown in parentheses, are:
ARG (Rand +1)
Fox (Rand +2)
CNN/ORC (Rand -1)
KBUR (Rand -4) (Campaign’s Chip Englander does not think this one meets standard for inclusion)
Loras (Rand -3)
Des Moines Register (Rand +1)
Therefore we want Quinnipiac, if it comes in before deadline, to be +1 or better versus Bush for Rand
Another possible saving grace might be the WHO-HD / Iowa State University poll which isn’t shown yet on RCP but appears to meet the standard for using live interviews. That poll is +3 for Rand versus Bush. Obviously if this one was included it kicks out DMR but improves Rand’s net score, to in fact beat (not merely tie) Bush.
Regardless of outcome with Quinnipiac (or other polls), If KBUR is used, we’re likely screwed because that one is a very bad outlier with Rand at -4 versus Bush. Note that the Campaign’s Chip Englander did not mention this poll in today’s tweet and presumably does not think it meets the standard for inclusion.
The current order of already-released Iowa polls that are possible candidates for inclusion, from most recent to least recent, with score versus Bush shown in parentheses, are:
ARG (Rand +1)
Fox (Rand +2)
CNN/ORC (Rand -1)
KBUR (Rand -4) (Campaign’s Chip Englander does not think this one meets standard for inclusion)
Loras (Rand -3)
Des Moines Register (Rand +1)
Therefore we want Quinnipiac, if it comes in before deadline, to be +1 or better versus Bush for Rand
Another possible saving grace might be the WHO-HD / Iowa State University poll which isn’t shown yet on RCP but appears to meet the standard for using live interviews. That poll is +3 for Rand versus Bush. Obviously if this one was included it kicks out DMR but improves Rand’s net score, to in fact beat (not merely tie) Bush.
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