NBC polls today 1/10

[limequat]

new polls out today

Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus
NBC News/Marist Cruz 28, Trump 24, Rubio 13, Carson 11, Bush 4, Paul 5, Christie 3, Huckabee 2, Fiorina 3, Kasich 2, Graham, Santorum 0, Pataki
Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus
NBC News/Marist Clinton 48, Sanders 45, O'Malley 5 Clinton +3
New Hampshire Republican Presidential Primary
NBC News/Marist Trump 30, Rubio 14, Cruz 10, Bush 9, Christie 12, Kasich 9, Paul 5, Carson 4, Fiorina 3, Santorum 0, Huckabee 0 Trump +16
New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary NBC News/Marist Sanders 50, Clinton 46, O'Malley 1 Sanders +4

 

[TheNewYorker]

//

 

[Jan2017]

http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/poll-neck-neck-2016-races-iowa-new-hampshire-n493361

The NBC/WSJ/Marist polls were conducted Jan. 2-7. In Iowa, the poll measured 2,821 registered voters (+/- 1.8), 1,094 potential GOP caucus-goers (+/- 3.0%), 456 likely GOP caucus-goers (+/- 4.6%), 977 potential Democratic caucus-goers (+/- 3.1%) and 422 likely Dem caucus-goers (+/- 4.8%)

In New Hampshire, the poll measured 1,888 registered voters (+/- 2.3%), 887 potential GOP primary voters (+/- 3.3%), 569 likely GOP primary voters (+/- 4.1%), 690 potential Dem primary voters (+/- 3.7%) and 425 likely Dem primary voters (+/- 4.8%).

These polls seem like bigger sample sizes, so would get proportionally weighted even by 4th grade mathematicians - but maybe not Fox.

 

[PCKY]

new polls out today

Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus
NBC News/Marist Cruz 28, Trump 24, Rubio 13, Carson 11, Bush 4, Paul 5, Christie 3, Huckabee 2, Fiorina 3, Kasich 2, Graham, Santorum 0, Pataki
Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus
NBC News/Marist Clinton 48, Sanders 45, O'Malley 5 Clinton +3
New Hampshire Republican Presidential Primary
NBC News/Marist Trump 30, Rubio 14, Cruz 10, Bush 9, Christie 12, Kasich 9, Paul 5, Carson 4, Fiorina 3, Santorum 0, Huckabee 0 Trump +16
New Hampshire 2016 Democratic Primary NBC News/Marist Sanders 50, Clinton 46, O'Malley 1 Sanders +4

So Bush is listed ahead of Paul even though his number is higher?

 

[Jan2017]

Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus
NBC News/Marist Cruz 28, Trump 24, Rubio 13, Carson 11, Paul 5, Bush 4, Christie 3, Huckabee 2, Fiorina 3, Kasich 2, Graham, Santorum 0, Pataki

This has Rand in 5th in Iowa doesn't it ? . . . with bigger sample size than other previous Iowa polling as well.

 

[limequat]

So Bush is listed ahead of Paul even though his number is higher?

Yes, this was a cut-paste from RCP. BUsh's RCP average is still higher and that's how they're listed.

 

[limequat]

This has Rand in 5th in Iowa doesn't it ? . . . with bigger sample size than others as well.

Yes.

 

[Joeinmo]

But the RCP average is unknown, because we don't know what the qualifying polling orgs are yet.

you can use past examples that Fox allows, Marist is one they always use, but some of those on RCP haven't always been used

 

[PCKY]

Yes, this was a cut-paste from RCP. BUsh's RCP average is still higher and that's how they're listed.

Ok, got it. But that's visually hard to deal with...it visually implies that the poll lists Rand below Bush but the opposite is true. Ugh.

 

[invisible]

Ok, got it. But that's visually hard to deal with...it visually implies that the poll lists Rand below Bush but the opposite is true. Ugh.

I noticed this as well. An initial quick glance seems to place bush ahead of Rand. Then a closer look reveals that their positions are reversed. I don't recall this being done with any other candidate. More subtle bias and propaganda.

 

[Jonderdonk]

I noticed this as well. An initial quick glance seems to place bush ahead of Rand. Then a closer look reveals that their positions are reversed. I don't recall this being done with any other candidate. More subtle bias and propaganda.

No, it's copied and pasted from RCP, where Bush has a higher average. The candidates are ordered based on RCP average, not in accordance with any particular poll. Hence the reversal of positions.

 

[presence]

So Bush is listed ahead of Paul even though his number is higher?

lol, he got ron'ed

 

[limequat]

There's enough bias in other places, we don't have to look for it where there is none.
Here's a link to RCP's complete Iowa data.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...iowa_republican_presidential_caucus-3194.html