NBC/Marist Poll released 7/26 Iowa & NH

[Paulite]

Here's the link in case picture results dont show up
maristpoll.marist.edu/726-ia-walker-trump-vie-for-lead-nh-trump-leads-gop-sanders-closes-gap-against-clinton/

 

[RJB]

I'm surprised Rand Paul is polling better in Iowa than in New Hampshire.

 

[David Sadler]

Here's the link in case picture results dont show up
maristpoll.marist.edu/726-ia-walker-trump-vie-for-lead-nh-trump-leads-gop-sanders-closes-gap-against-clinton/

Rand's numbers are down, but he's still in the top 9 in NH and the top 6 in Iowa.

Trump is gaining ground on Walker in Iowa after Walker's announcement bump. Trump's twitter feed is exposing some Walker vulnerabilities.

 

[boneyard bill]

Here's the link in case picture results dont show up
maristpoll.marist.edu/726-ia-walker-trump-vie-for-lead-nh-trump-leads-gop-sanders-closes-gap-against-clinton/

I find it hard to believe that Rand is polling only 4% in New Hampshire when his father garnered 25% of the vote against Romney in 2012. I realize that it's a much larger field now. Nonetheless, 4% seems absurdly low from the "live free or die" state.

 

[randomname]

ha, Rubio at 4-5%

 

[69360]

I don't see a lot of value in this. Obviously Trump's troll campaign will implode in a scandal, gaffe(s) or a bimbo explosion. Once that is over we will see where the numbers really fall.

 

[FreedomProsperityPeace]

The most distressing thing is that Cruz and even Kasich have jumped ahead of Rand in NH. WTH is happening?!

 

[Massachusetts]

The most distressing thing is that Cruz and even Kasich have jumped ahead of Rand in NH. WTH is happening?!

401 potential Republican voters - a standard poll has 500-1000 as a sample size. In Iowa, it was 342 potential Republican voters.

 

[Uriah]

The most distressing thing is that Cruz and even Kasich have jumped ahead of Rand in NH. WTH is happening?!

Depending on the source Kasich spent $1.5 to $3 million on tv ads in New Hampshire.

 

[ssunlimited]

If this poll is for real then I think we're in serious trouble.

 

[jkob]

I think people really have their head in the sand about the status of Rand's campaign

not seeing a path, looks like a huge waste of time

should just run for reelection

 

[jj-]

I think people really have their head in the sand about the status of Rand's campaign

not seeing a path, looks like a huge waste of time

should just run for reelection

He can do both. Wait till Iowa to make a further decision, I don't think he loses anything. What if Trump drops out a week before the caucus due to a sex scandal? It's very unstable at the moment.

 

[jkob]

He can do both. Wait till Iowa to make a further decision, I don't think he loses anything. What if Trump drops out a week before the caucus due to a sex scandal? It's very unstable at the moment.

I don't see why voters would go to Rand even if Trump implodes, pandering just isn't a winning strategy

 

[jj-]

I don't see why voters would go to Rand even if Trump implodes, pandering just isn't a winning strategy

Having name ID, being one of the candidates left, not being Bush, and having the others stumble.

That's actually how you win elections. This isn't a valedictorians contest.

 

[Wilf]

I don't see why voters would go to Rand even if Trump implodes, pandering just isn't a winning strategy

I can't see why they whould go after Cruz

 

[AuH20]

I don't see why voters would go to Rand even if Trump implodes, pandering just isn't a winning strategy

Rand's balls have submerged back into his abdomen. I don't see him picking up Trump type voters. I gave Rand plenty of money and I'm kinda shocked what I ended up buying. I thought this was going to be like the 2010 campaign but we got this compassionate conservative nonsense. If I wanted compassionate conservative I would have donated to Bush or Rubio.

 

[Peace&Freedom]

I don't yet see a path to a Rand victory in IA or NH, but neither do I see Trump leaving the race or "imploding" at this point, I think he's in through the spring at least. His presence in the race creates potential openings for Rand if he indeed has a "slow and steady wins the race" plan in mind. Because Trump is not being taken seriously by the media, his dominating the early contests devalues them and puts the primary race into limbo until the "true" front runner emerges. This may give Rand more time to pick up a victory somewhere. If he moves up enough to place at least third or even fourth in IA and/or NH, that may be enough to prove his viability.

By contrast, Trump's presence could spell disaster for Jeb, Walker and Rubio, if they can't make the top 3 or 4 in those two states. As it currently stands Huckabee or Carson could soon move past Bush in polls in both states for 3rd position. It's quite possible that Huckabee, Rand and Carson could climb above Bush in Iowa in the coming weeks or months, with the finish being Trump-Huck-Carson-Walker (Bush in 5th or worse position). In New Hampshire, it could end up Trump-Carson-Rand-Bush (Walker in 5th or worse position). With Rubio not even getting traction, and both Jeb and Walker flailing early on, it could be anybody's race.

 

[Paulite]

Besides rand is doing the same delegate game ron did in 2012.

 

[Keith and stuff]

In New Hampshire, it could end up Trump-Carson-Rand-Bush (Walker in 5th or worse position). With Rubio not even getting traction, and both Jeb and Walker flailing early on, it could be anybody's race.

I wouldn't count Walker out in NH. He has campaigned here perhaps less than any other candidate. He made 3 public stops, only answering question from the audience at 1 of the stops. Candidates like Christie, Fiorina, Pataki, and Paul have made dozens of public campaign stops in NH. Though, that doesn't seem to be helping any of them in this poll.