Nate Silver has Ron Paul in 3rd in S.C with 16.4% (possibly as high as 30%)

[trey4sports]

Dream scenario would be a super crowded primary. 20% going 5 ways with Ron eeking it out. Highly unlikely but it would be sweet.

 

[FreeTraveler]

The critical bit of information here isn't the 3rd place / 16.4 percent.

See those little tabs further down the page labeled "Previous Vote Range Projections"?

There's where the meat is. Look at the four contenders. Now remember there's still over a week to go.

This is very, very excellent news. Romney and Santorum have both been sinking. Look at the uptick for Ron today.

 

[helmuth_hubener]

I think both Perry and Huntsman will drop after South Carolina for sure. I'm hoping Santorum gets 4th though so he considers dropping as well. Gingrich staying in won't be bad but we need Santorum and Perry out ASAP.

Santorum has sounded more determined to stay in, when reporters ask about it. Gingrich is used to winning and is not on a crusade like Paul -- he will be sick of losing if he loses South Carolina. He has gotten ZERO delegates so far! Plus, he's a southern boy, and so it makes him look way more bad to lose SC than it does Santorum. It would just be embarrassing. So I see Gingrich dropping out.

This is good for us.

I think we'd much rather have Santorum holding on than Gingrich, because Gingrich has national name-recognition, has gotten on the ballot in some places where Santorum has failed, and all-in-all is just a more plausible candidate. Santorum isn't on the ballot or hasn't qualified delegates in a bunch of places, still doesn't have a lot of money, and just seems very weak, to me.

Ideally they'd all drop out, but if someone stays in it'll be Santorum, I think. Perry is sick of losing, too. Huntsman, it's irrelevant whether he stays in or not, because from here on out he gets no votes.

 

[helmuth_hubener]

Dream scenario would be a super crowded primary. 20% going 5 ways with Ron eeking it out. Highly unlikely but it would be sweet.

That's what Lew Rockwell kept dangling out there as the dream last time, but as much as I love Lew, it didn't turn out to be correct. Dr. Paul pulled in much better percentages once it was down to just him, McCain, and Huckabee, and then just him and McCain. I think we want empty ballots and clear sailing, not lots of boats crashing into each other and distracting attention from our man. The more of these pretenders to the throne drop out, the better for us.

 

[Suzu]

I just having a feeling we may pull some huge upset here. Wishful thinking perhaps.

Not wishful thinking... Maybe precognition, or intuition, something like that.... Ron has now seen for himself that he can win the nomination, and having had that realization, he has decided that he will do it. With our help he will own SC by this time next week.

 

[Suzu]

Dream scenario would be a super crowded primary. 20% going 5 ways with Ron eeking it out. Highly unlikely but it would be sweet.

I think the following outcome would be ideal, and I believe it's very possible:

Paul 25%
Romney 22%
Gingrich 20%
Perry 15%
Santorum 12%
Huntsman 3.5%
Other 2.5%

 

[Xhin]

I agree that the Previous Vote Projection is very important.

Paul is the only one who has yet to go down (aside from Bachmann, and she dropped out). The most recent tick also shows Ron Paul surging more than any other candidate.

 

[ross11988]

I think the following outcome would be ideal, and I believe it's very possible:

Paul 25%
Romney 22%
Gingrich 20%
Perry 15%
Santorum 12%
Huntsman 3.5%
Other 2.5%

Switch Santorum with Perry, add some points to Huntsman and it looks like a great prediction to me.

Santorum has raised more than 3 million dollars in the past 2 weeks, which worries me.

 

[Shellshock1918]

Just don't have any expectations. I am looking forward to Nevada and other caucus states.

 

[HOLLYWOOD]

ROMNEY TANKING... according to plan.

Qautloos for everybody!

 

[White Bear Lake]

Romney's recent trend is looking disastrous. And as we found out with Santorum in Iowa, recent trends can become extremely exaggerated on election day. His support is very soft and could all come falling out at any point. Especially in a state like SC where he has a much smaller natural base than in NH.

 

[Kregisen]

Talk to your democrat friend and see if he can get more people on board too. What a win/win situation.

I asked him about it a couple days ago, he seemed open to it, it's just whether or not I can motivate him to actually drive over and do it. Ironically, his parents are Iranian haha. I'm gonna contact him a few days before it to get him to go.

My two cousins are both in for sure though. They've circled it on their calendars.

 

[BigByrd47119]

According to that article/poll, Huntsman and Paul are the only two on the rise (although very little) and everyone else is either steady or sinking. Man, Mitt got one hell of a bump in SC after Iowa...

 

[Dsylexic]

bump. i love talking about polls

 

[thoughtomator]

Gingrich will underdraw the polls. He's going negative and he always destroys his own positives in the process. If we keep Santorum down and hit him hard in SC we can take 1st if trends continue.

 

[akalucas]

i wonder why there is a lack of polls form SC after NH election. there has only been one...

 

[kill the banks]

hmmm encouraging

 

[unknown]

I live in Columbia and aside from Ron's Betrayal add ive seen nothing but anti Romney/Newt adds. It's getting nuclear. I'm talking like 3 different ads at a time

Interrrrresting.

 

[unknown]

Could you imagine Paul winning SC... IF he did that, the neo-cons would shit their pants. I mean, not only that but Newt, Rick S and Rick P and Huntsman would all drop out. Leaving the rest of the states to Paul and Romney.

RP is going to have to attack during the debates AND self promote, two things he hates doing.

He HAS to play up the chickenhawk/veteran angle.

Chickenhawks want you to go die.

The Veteran doesnt.

 

[RickyJ]

Red Bull is good for morale boosting.

It will dehydrate you fast. Drink plenty of water with Red Bull.