Can you summarize the points? It is a lengthy broadcast.
The problem that I see with the delegate strategy as it is described on RPF is that it is contingent upon unlikely scenarios that need to occur.
1) Romney does not accumulate enough delegates (bound and unbound) to total 1144 to win on the first ballot.
2) Ron Paul supporters make up 1144 of the 2286 delegates at the RNC.
Both of the above need to occur in order for Paul to win the nomination at the convention. I am not a statistician, but I would imagine that the chances of both scenarios occurring is in the low single digits.
Personally, I think the best that we can hope for at this point is that Paul has enough delegates at the convention to have influence over the VP nomination and/or the platform. This is essentially what Benton was alluding to in the interview he gave on MSNBC on the 11th.
If case #2 occurs then case 1# occurs by default (2286 - 1144 = 1142) so functionally there's really only one case presented there.
Second both 1&2 ignore case 3 (which is more likely than either of them) that no candidate has a clear majority going into Tampa.
Even Nate Silver's most pro Romney projections have Romney not pulling that number down until after the final states come in. And Silvers numbers get Romney through the gate only by assuming that the current AP
projection is the
actual delegate count which is demonstrably false.
There's quite a bit of anti-Romney sentiment out there and it's pulling votes and support from him, there
will be delegates at the RNC who have distaste for Romney and aren't Paul delegates. Even if current trends continue we wouldn't need
all of those delegates to secure the nomination only part of them which is a legitimate chance (no numbers on this because there are too many variables to provide any semblance of accuracy at this early stage).
Based on the projections of Mr. Silver even a 5% shift or under-performance by Romney would result in him requiring
two-thirds of the unbound & super delegate pool if he is to reach eleven forty four.
It's also worth noting that other political annalists like those at Real Clear Politics (and if memory serves Politico as well) have projections out which are
strikingly less favorable to Mr. Romney. And all of these projections reach their conclusion without applying any accounting for the Paul delegate strategy or including even a mention of things like Clark County et al the delegate race is a zero sum game and if Paul takes any delegates away from Willard then his mathematical chances become even lessor than those political projections. Presuming that Santorum and Gingrich supporters who have fought and voted against Willard throughout this race will suddenly embrace him with open arm at the RNC is groundless.
Some of them almost certainly will if their own candidate goes out, just as by the same token
some will
not. Right now how those individuals will brake is simply unknown because there are so many factors still up in the air. If it comes down to a second ballot (which more and more people are acknowledging is a real possibility, some annalists are even going so far as to say a
probability at this point) there will be a great deal of question about who is the strongest candidate against Obama, who has the most loyal support (matters for several reasons), and who is the least distasteful of a switch. While we know that Newt, Willard, and Rick are more or less the same on their policies most voters
do not see them that way and that will play a role as well (besides while he
may play ball we all know Newt has an ego and he has a personal grudge in this race against Romney which is yet another reason not to just
assume that Willard will gain support by default).
