US intervention, Not good:
On september 22nd, 15 minutes before Argentina’s foreign-exchange markets opened, America’s government made an intervention. “Argentina is a systemically important u.s. ally,” Scott Bessent, America’s treasury secretary, wrote on X, a social network. He added that the United States “stands ready to do what is needed” and that “all options for stabilization are on the table.” “Argentina will be Great Again.”
It is highly unusual for America to stand behind another country’s currency in this way. Mr Bessent’s declaration was prompted by intense and mounting pressure on the Argentine peso that threatens to derail the economic project of
Javier Milei, Argentina’s libertarian president. Last month, with his sister embroiled in a corruption scandal, Mr Milei badly lost a legislative election in the province of Buenos Aires. He then suffered a series of stinging legislative losses. Markets panicked, worried that the defeat signalled the end of popular support for Mr Milei’s economic-reform project, and the potential return of spendthrift Peronists. A sharp peso sell off began.
Since April, when the imf launched yet another programme in Argentina, the peso has been floating within an exchange-rate band, the limits of which the Argentine government has vowed to defend. By mid-September the peso’s official rate was testing the upper limit of that band, even briefly piercing it on September 17th to reach 1475 to the dollar. Over the following two days the Argentine central bank spent some $1bn of its scarce foreign-currency reserves to defend the currency.
chart: the economist
The bank does not have sufficient foreign reserves to keep up this level of spending for long. Drafting in the dollar-bazooka of the us Treasury should give Argentina the firepower to stabilise the peso, if needed. Mr Bessent, who went to Buenos Aires in April on his first official overseas trip, says the treasury is looking at “swap lines, direct currency purchases, and purchases of u.s. dollar-denominated government debt from Treasury’s Exchange Stabilization Fund”. The intent is to reassure markets that the band’s upper limit is backed by the might of the United States. Mr Bessent hopes the signal will be so powerful that the real extent of American support will never be tested. He promised more detail on September 23rd, when Mr Milei will meet with him and Donald Trump in New York.