Medina at 24% in PPP Poll!!!

[rp08orbust]

Could the Republican primary for Governor in Texas end up in a runoff between Rick Perry...and Debra Medina? Medina is coming on strong and polls now at 24%, just four points behind Kay Bailey Hutchison's 28%. Perry continues to hold a double digit advantage at 39%.

Medina is clearly riding the wave of discontent with the Republican establishment. Among primary voters who disapprove of the job the GOP in Congress is doing she actually leads with 37% to 32% for Perry and 22% for Hutchison. The problem for Medina is those folks only account for a third of the electorate and among the majority who are happy with the Republicans in Washington she's in a distant third at 17% to 48% for Perry and 27% for Hutchison. There may not end up being enough discontented Republican voters for her to move into the top two but she is nevertheless exceeding expectations.

Hutchison's issues are twofold: voters trust Washington politicians even less than usual right now and she's simply not connecting with the conservative voters who dominate a GOP primary electorate. Asked whether they have more faith in Washington politicians or Austin politicians to solve Texas' problems 78% said the state level ones to just 3% picking the national level. And while Hutchison has a commanding 49-29 lead over Perry with moderate voters, she is in last place with conservatives. Perry leads the pack at 42% followed by Medina at 25% and Hutchison at 23%. 76% of likely primary voters are conservatives to only 20% who are moderates.

Medina supporters say their second choice is Perry by a 43-39 margin over Hutchison, suggesting that if Perry does win by ten points but still end up in a runoff Hutchison's prospects for gaining ground on him are not that strong.

Hutchison actually has better approval numbers than Perry, pulling a 51/28 spread to his 50/36. But with Medina in the race the anti-Perry vote is splitting almost evenly with 46% going to Hutchison and 43% going to Medina. And in a huge shift from when PPP polled this race last February Perry is leading Hutchison 61-15 among voters who like both of them. A year ago Hutchison led 49-33 with those voters. At this point they seem to be sending a message that they'd like for both Perry and Hutchison to stay right where they are.

It'll be interesting to see if Medina continues to gain over these final three weeks- even getting to a runoff would have to be seen as a pretty big victory for the Tea Party crowd.

On the Democratic side Bill White leads with 49% to 19% for Farouk Shami and a total of 8% for the other five candidates.

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/02/medina-coming-on-strong.html

 

[LibertyEagle]

woohoo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[No1ButPaul08]

wow

 

[MRoCkEd]

wow wow wow

Only 4% behind Hutchison with 10% undecided!

 

[MsDoodahs]

 

[LibertyEagle]

In this one, every vote is going to count.

 

[MsDoodahs]

And don't forget every single dollar, too!

We should have a mini money bomb in honor of Deb's advance in the poll.

 

[TonySutton]

51% do not see Medina as favorable or unfavorable. This means she has a chance to open a lot of eyes in the next 3 weeks!

 

[MRoCkEd]

So close to forcing a runoff... between Perry and Medina!

What's the best strategy? Attracting Perry voters? Attracting Hutchison voters? Attracting the undecided voters? Attacking Kay?

Soooo close with so little time to hit second place.

 

[jblosser]

Please make sure any undecideds you know participate in the upcoming We Texans town halls: http://medinafortexas.com/townhall

 

[MsDoodahs]

Mark - attacking kay or rick is not necessary - they're tearing each other down plenty on the radio (and probably on the television, I'm guessing because I don't watch local tee vee).

 

[Eric21ND]

 

[rancher89]

and don't forget every single dollar, too!

We should have a mini money bomb in honor of deb's advance in the poll.

+1776

 

[Romulus]

Mark - attacking kay or rick is not necessary - they're tearing each other down plenty on the radio (and probably on the television, I'm guessing because I don't watch local tee vee).

agreed - Just get her name out there as the alternative to the status quo and that'll take hold. She needs publicity.

How about a mass phone/email action day to get her some press??

 

[TheState]

Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of Debra Medina?
Favorable........................................................ 40%
Unfavorable .................................................... 9%
Not Sure.......................................................... 51%

Wow! That is nuts.

Ideology
....................Base Liberal Moderate Conservative
Hutchison ....28% ...9%.......49%.........23%
Medina.........24% ..48%......14%.........25%
Perry ...........39% ..31%......29% ........42%
Undecided ...10% ..12% ......9% ........10%

Highest percentage of liberals approve? Good for general election.

 

[Jordan]

Its down to every last vote. Texans, its time to knock on some doors!

 

[Jordan]

Highest percentage of liberals approve? Good for general election.

The Republican primary is the general election in Texas.

 

[rp08orbust]

I stayed up until 3am here in Australia because I knew there would be Medina poll results today (though I was expecting Rasmussen before PPP), and now I'm so pumped I don't think I can sleep

If she wins this thing in November, I think the country will have its new Tea Party leader, a Sarah Palin with substance.

 

[thasre]

Is it weird that I just feel such joy at this news?

It reminds me of when Ron Paul really started getting some national prominence and attention... but the difference is that Debra might really win!

This is one of those rare circumstances where I want to shout "Yippee!" like a little kid!

 

[LibertyEagle]

I'm kind of surprised about the stats for ideology. Medina is BY FAR the most conservative.