Stocks: Market Crash Looming

[devil21]

+322

 

[Krugminator2]

Always somebody predicting a crash or pullback. This thread is a good example.

And for some context, why I combined the tax bill and 5%.

[h=1]20 Longest Stretches of DJIA Without 5% Corrections[/h]

 

[oyarde]

Up 6K from 52 week low ? 26,071

 

[afwjam]

I’m getting nervous, thinking about walking away with my gains.

 

[devil21]

I’m getting nervous, thinking about walking away with my gains.

Extended shutdown would make a good cover story for a large pull back. Better hope nothing bigger, like act of terrorism, occurs during the shutdown. Markets would flash crash.

 

[Madison320]

Extended shutdown would make a good cover story for a large pull back. Better hope nothing bigger, like act of terrorism, occurs during the shutdown. Markets would flash crash.

The dollar has been dropping a lot lately. The DXY is down to 89 and the 10 year is up to 2.65. I always figured the stock markets would crash first, then more QE, then the dollar would tank. Maybe the dollar goes first?

 

[devil21]

The dollar has been dropping a lot lately. The DXY is down to 89 and the 10 year is up to 2.65. I always figured the stock markets would crash first, then more QE, then the dollar would tank. Maybe the dollar goes first?

Well, if the goal is to implode the entire system for a reset (and that's very, very possible given global economic changes underway, dollar reserve being dismantled), blowing up the bond market is how to do it since everything else dollar denominated essentially originates from the bond market. Just my 0.02 but I think the Fed already raised the target rate again but hasn't announced it and it will be framed as a 'surprise' hike at the next public dissemination of FOMC meeting results.

What I wouldn't give to be a fly on the wall in Davos right now.

 

[Madison320]

Well, if the goal is to implode the entire system for a reset (and that's very, very possible given global economic changes underway, dollar reserve being dismantled), blowing up the bond market is how to do it since everything else dollar denominated essentially originates from the bond market. Just my 0.02 but I think the Fed already raised the target rate again but hasn't announced it and it will be framed as a 'surprise' hike at the next public dissemination of FOMC meeting results.

The Fed is terrified of inflation and loves deflation. Deflation is easy and fun to fix, just give out more free money. Inflation is extremely painful to fix, they have to take money away, crash the markets, crash the economy and bankrupt the banks. Given that I would guess that the Fed wants so make a big show out of it's teensy, little rate hikes to try to make it look like they are fighting inflation and to keep the dollar from sinking.

 

[ChristianAnarchist]

I've been waiting for the market crash for 40 years. I'm still waiting...

My wife on the other hand has been investing in the market and the "unrealized gains" are crazy. If we can cash it out before the big crash we will be sitting pretty but if the crash is sudden and deep we will lose...

 

[devil21]

Futures are looking uuuuuugly. 20% pop in VIX yesterday. Global markets are in sell-off mode, bond yields continue rising. Looks like a correction is finally underway. Whether it turns into a crash, I don't know.

 

[Madison320]

Futures are looking uuuuuugly. 20% pop in VIX yesterday. Global markets are in sell-off mode, bond yields continue rising. Looks like a correction is finally underway. Whether it turns into a crash, I don't know.

Normally a 1% drop is nothing but it really stands out now since it's been going up pretty much every day for a year and a half. I think we've only had one or two 1% daily drops in the last year and a half.

 

[Madison320]

I've been waiting for the market crash for 40 years. I'm still waiting......

There's been some pretty big crashes in the last 40 years.

 

[ChristianAnarchist]

There's been some pretty big crashes in the last 40 years.

Don't remember ever having to wait in a bread line. No, I'm talking about a REAL crash. A "wrath of God" crash. One that the FED and the goonerment don't recover from - EVER...

 

[Madison320]

Don't remember ever having to wait in a bread line. No, I'm talking about a REAL crash. A "wrath of God" crash. One that the FED and the goonerment don't recover from - EVER...

That'll be a dollar crash. Logically the dollar has to crash eventually. Otherwise we could just print our way out of every market crash.

 

[ChristianAnarchist]

That'll be a dollar crash. Logically the dollar has to crash eventually. Otherwise we could just print our way out of every market crash.

That's the one I'm still waiting for. When I was in my 20's I said that the pyramid scam would be over before I ever got a chance to collect any money I've put into it (social security in case I need to clarify). I'm 2 months away from qualifying so unless that crash happens in the next two months I'll have been wrong about that prediction. I'm actually already wrong because I thought the crash would have happened a long time ago. I'm certainly not saying that the crash is NOT coming but I am saying I was way off on when I thought it would happen.

 

[oyarde]

Don't remember ever having to wait in a bread line. No, I'm talking about a REAL crash. A "wrath of God" crash. One that the FED and the goonerment don't recover from - EVER...

We did not have bread line only because there were record number of millions on food stamps . The actual employment numbers were worse last crash than the Great Depression . Going from five people for each job available to 6 .

 

[Madison320]

That's the one I'm still waiting for. When I was in my 20's I said that the pyramid scam would be over before I ever got a chance to collect any money I've put into it (social security in case I need to clarify). I'm 2 months away from qualifying so unless that crash happens in the next two months I'll have been wrong about that prediction. I'm actually already wrong because I thought the crash would have happened a long time ago. I'm certainly not saying that the crash is NOT coming but I am saying I was way off on when I thought it would happen.

That's one reason most of my investments are inflation hedges. If I'm wrong I'll be able to live on SS, if I'm right my investments will go way up.

 

[Intoxiklown]

I've been waiting for the market crash for 40 years. I'm still waiting...

My wife on the other hand has been investing in the market and the "unrealized gains" are crazy. If we can cash it out before the big crash we will be sitting pretty but if the crash is sudden and deep we will lose...

My wife is the same, all though her approach isn't flashy as it is more safe. She is spread across several energy stocks with dividend pay outs regardless of performance, and has those dividends roll back into purchasing more of those stocks. LOL....she HOPES for corrections and crashes, as it leads to us owning more of those companies. So, when they rebound the totals jump.

 

[Brian4Liberty]

The question isn't whether a correction or crash will occur, it's how far down will it go? The big players want a correction because they are prepared to profit, but they will also want to turn it around quickly so they can then profit on the upside.

 

[Intoxiklown]

The question isn't whether a correction or crash will occur, it's how far down will it go? The big players want a correction because they are prepared to profit, but they will also want to turn it around quickly so they can then profit on the upside.

Yeah....sad but true. And I fully admit to the hypocrisy on my part that my wife has built our portfolio (albeit to a MUCH lesser degree than the ones you're speaking to) around the same premise.