Stocks: Market Crash Looming

[r3volution 3.0]

 

[r3volution 3.0]

 

[r3volution 3.0]

10Y UST 2.87(!)

Tommorow's going to be a bloodbath.

 

[r3volution 3.0]

Some bottom buying now, might be a headfake tomorrow...

 

[r3volution 3.0]

...or not, who knows, but the long term top's in, IMO.

Couple days, a week or two, a month.

Barring some change in fiscal policy from this government, the bond market's going down.

 

[r3volution 3.0]

Europe's about to open, looks ugly

 

[r3volution 3.0]

Europe opens a little over 1% lower, Dow futures follow, UST hangs out and does nothing (not really a good sign, should be "flight to quality")

 

[r3volution 3.0]

Dow futures back down to -200

I'm not saying tommorow's going to be another black Monday, but it's very possible, esp. if the bond market keeps shitting the bed.

Stocks are dumb money; they just follow bonds (slightly less dumb money).

 

[r3volution 3.0]

The key thing, that every Wall Street hooligan is watching right now is the 10Y.

If it breaks 2.9, watch out.

...it's currently flipping around in response to Europe.

 

[r3volution 3.0]

PM's now getting a bid

 

[r3volution 3.0]

$ down against the euro, pound, yen, swiss franc, CAD, everything...

This evening's action may or may not be important in itself, but I think the trends are interesting.

 

[Krugminator2]

Dow futures back down to -200

I'm not saying tommorow's going to be another black Monday, but it's very possible, esp. if the bond market keeps $#@!ting the bed.

Stocks are dumb money; they just follow bonds (slightly less dumb money).

Not very likely. Markets always give plenty of warning before something like that happens. Markets usually churn sideways and put in lower highs.

Buying an AM panic and holding for the first up close vs the previous day prints money. For example, there are a lot of variations of this but the basic idea of buying greater than usual weakness within an uptrend and selling into short term strength tests very well.

 

[oyarde]

If the Dow were to drop another 285 tomorrow it would be below 24955 . That ought to be enough to push gold past 1350 and silver past 17 1/3 .

 

[devil21]

Not very likely. Markets always give plenty of warning before something like that happens. Markets usually churn sideways and put in lower highs.

Buying an AM panic and holding for the first up close vs the previous day prints money. For example, there are a lot of variations of this but the basic idea of buying greater than usual weakness within an uptrend and selling into short term strength tests very well.

I think we saw the power of the Plunge Protection Team this morning.

But wait, that's just internet conspiracy theory


(INTEL WAS $13!!!!)

As soon as they stepped back out, it started tanking again today.

A week or so ago there was a notice that a few trading gateways were down (ZH had a short piece about it...wasn't exchanges or brokers, just IP addresses). The markets all nosedived UNTIL the issue was resolved, then boom, a reversal and back into green. I'll be the tinfoil guy and pose that it was a test to see what would happen when the PPT desks (Fed/Treas/ESF) were shut off entirely from the markets. I think they're holding the markets up and manipulating it to desired results, good or bad, even down to specific closing numbers. Whenever they back away, real market forces kick in and the overvalued nature of their manipulation visits reality.

No coincidence that the WH put out a statement this morning, at the same time as the PPT was working, about confidence in the economy and assuaging stock fears. It is the President's Working Group, after all.

 

[Madison320]

I think we saw the power of the Plunge Protection Team this morning.

But wait, that's just internet conspiracy theory

The PPT can influence the markets a little but I seriously doubt they can do it for long. They don't have enough capital. If it were that easy every market would do it.

 

[devil21]

The PPT can influence the markets a little but I seriously doubt they can do it for long. They don't have enough capital. If it were that easy every market would do it.

Uh what? The Exchange Stabilization Fund, the Fed and the US Treasury, don't have enough capital to stabilize (manipulate) the exchanges? I can't imagine what your line of reasoning is here.

Also, I edited my post you replied to. Check out extra info.

 

[Madison320]

Uh what? The Exchange Stabilization Fund, the Fed and the US Treasury, don't have enough capital to stabilize (manipulate) the exchanges? I can't imagine what your line of reasoning is here.

Also, I edited my post your replied to. Check out extra info.

Just the NYSE alone has a market cap of 21 trillion and trades about 200 billion a day. They'd probably have to have hundreds of billions of dollars to throw away to keep the markets from a big sell off. Plus it would be a huge risk. It would take a lot of people to pull it off and if the public found out either the markets or the dollar would crash to zero.

I'm not saying the PPT isn't trying to stabilize the markets, I'm just saying they can only have so much influence. If it were really possible to keep the markets constantly going up without an equal loss in the value of the currency every country would be rich and no one would have to work.

 

[r3volution 3.0]

DJIA -750 (off a low of -800 minutes ago)

What's especially interesting is that gold and silver are barely down and bonds are barely up.

 

[r3volution 3.0]

-1100

Correction, -1300 while typing (!)

 

[r3volution 3.0]

Make that -1400