Maine Caucus Predictions and Results Page
- Thread starter jllundqu
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I think that's mainly to steal delegates. Shouldn't have much of an effect on the popular vote (unless it's really close).
AngryCanadian
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Please enough of this intrade Nonsense.
Ron paul is going to do well in Manie as for Intrade its nothing more then people placing bets and there money on whose going to win so not a real prediction.
I have seen a thread result page where Ron paul is leading with 40%.
I believe the Romney team has info from the state GOP with the caucus results thus far and they are convinced he will win. Paul getting 2nd would not hurt near as bad if he busted his ass the final 72 hours and did all he could. Still, it might not have mattered much. Romney appears to be coasting to victory. 2nd place for Romney, with him attending several Maine caucuses on Saturday, would be a major blow to his candidacy. It would be a big news story. Romney team is confident.
yea, but by only 27 votes...majority of the votes will come Saturday....
RP Supporter
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Not necessarily. Romney's lost the last three contests. If he loses a 4th, especially to unelectable Ron Paul
of all people, the media will gleefully tear into him.At this point, he's pretty much in a tough position either way. He either has to try to ignore Maine and downplay it( which won't work) or desperately compete there and hope he can pull out a victory by getting enough establishment people out. A loss after he competes will be worse then ignoring the state, but Romney's in a position where he can't afford to lose another state and have the narrative be for half a month his declining strength. He has no choice but to make a play here.
As for my prediction, I expect Paul to win by mid to high single digits. And of course, the media will briefly credit him and then talk about how this proves Romney's a weak candidate.
"Will Santorum be able to capitalize on this?"
GraspingForPeace
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I see that there are multiple trolls on this forum...
AngryCanadian
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Yeah i see that lately.
GraspingForPeace
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So... you think that there is collusion between Romney and GOP officials?
braane
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Intrade is no doubt fun to speculate on. People throw down with limited information, but I do think you would find a mild correlation between Intrade and results. Not because intrade has an effect on the results, but because the results and perceived results affect Intrade.
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The_Ruffneck
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alaska , north dakota , washington
ironj221
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Actually, I quite like the "Not gonna win" comment. We keep raising expectations and then everyone's heart is always shattered the next day. I'd rather make everyone think we have no chance of winning and then blow it out of the water
I'm not going to predict and I hope none of us else predicts. We predicted first in Iowa and said it was impossible he finished 3rd....he finished 3rd. South Carolina the same except for 2nd/3rd. Nevada same 2nd...Minnesota predicted wins....
Then on the other hand you had people saying last in Nevada...last in Minnesota...3rd in New Hampshire...People are either overly optimistic or pessimistic. Let the cards fall where ever they do. Lets hope Ron wins.
Then on the other hand you had people saying last in Nevada...last in Minnesota...3rd in New Hampshire...People are either overly optimistic or pessimistic. Let the cards fall where ever they do. Lets hope Ron wins.
Gray Fullbuster
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Realism =/= Trolling
I support Ron Paul and have been Phoning from Home and making ads nonstop for him to get votes.
I don't think he'll win it tomorrow though. Me having an opinion is not a troll.
Please be a bit more respectful before yelling "troll."
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South Dakota too. The one and only poll (when bachman, perry, cain and huntsman were still in the race) had Paul leading. South Dakota is winner take all...would be huge.
Nobody here is a "troll."
Student Of Paulism
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I disagree with some saying Romney needed to go here to make a play. Romney is still seen by many within the party as the 'eventual nom' and 'the guy to beat'. He is still a frontrunner and a state like ME is meaningless for his campaign to bother with. Newt and Rick arent even there and of all people, Rick should be in ME when you think about it. He has the least chance of winning the nom/beating obama and should be up there trying to squeeze out every win possible. This just proves how unimportant it is to them.
Let's be honest here, they know Ron has a good chance of winning it, so once again, Romney gets a memo to head up there and cut down Ron's momentum. He is the only one close enough to Ron to do it, which another reason why the others arent bothering, they have no chance to catch him. Why on earth would Romney waste his time in ME, when he could be in MI/AZ/OK where he needs to be competing with Rick? The guy takes out an ad buy there at the last minute in a meaningless state? (Meaningless for HIM, not Ron). Pfff yea ok It is more obvious than ever he is just up there to fuck it all up, and since Ron and crew decided that taking 3 days vacation was a good idea and even let him get there BEFORE they did is even more inexplicable. Rumor has it now the GOP is trying to get Rick supporters to vote for Romney. Since it will be close, they will have all the leverage they need to 'screw with something' too. If he loses, msm has their excuse to use that Ron blew it by not being up there after MN.
It is really just a shame they are risking losing this state. No one else would have done this. His one chance to win and they just blow it off for days, and allow Mitt to don his Mighty Mouse cape to swoop in and save the day. So if they lose, the campaign has no one but themselves to blame. Had they been there all 3 days and did all they can, and lost, well at least you could say you did all you could, gave it all you had, etc. But losing now will only generate mass finger pointing, which in this case, would be more than justified.
Let's be honest here, they know Ron has a good chance of winning it, so once again, Romney gets a memo to head up there and cut down Ron's momentum. He is the only one close enough to Ron to do it, which another reason why the others arent bothering, they have no chance to catch him. Why on earth would Romney waste his time in ME, when he could be in MI/AZ/OK where he needs to be competing with Rick? The guy takes out an ad buy there at the last minute in a meaningless state? (Meaningless for HIM, not Ron). Pfff yea ok
It is more obvious than ever he is just up there to fuck it all up, and since Ron and crew decided that taking 3 days vacation was a good idea and even let him get there BEFORE they did is even more inexplicable. Rumor has it now the GOP is trying to get Rick supporters to vote for Romney. Since it will be close, they will have all the leverage they need to 'screw with something' too. If he loses, msm has their excuse to use that Ron blew it by not being up there after MN. It is really just a shame they are risking losing this state. No one else would have done this. His one chance to win and they just blow it off for days, and allow Mitt to don his Mighty Mouse cape to swoop in and save the day. So if they lose, the campaign has no one but themselves to blame. Had they been there all 3 days and did all they can, and lost, well at least you could say you did all you could, gave it all you had, etc. But losing now will only generate mass finger pointing, which in this case, would be more than justified.
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I agree completely. It's just sad that so many people here attack others simply for stating the obvious.
seapilot
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think Ron Paul is going to win the straw poll. Already there is a rumor that Newt supporters are throwing their vote to RP, I imagine some Santorum supporters would too. They know they do not have a chance in Maine and it is a two man race there. They likely do not see RP as a threat as much as Romney going forward even with a win. Romney ends up losing again in Maine it overall helps Santorum going into the next contests and Gingrich as well.
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