Lepard opinion of financial crisis
- Thread starter llepard
- Start date
jkm1864
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- Dec 30, 2007
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- 834
It's going to be worse than what You say it is. Imagine a society where gas is too expensive and the trucks just hang it up. There will be no food and no small farmers to help us out this time around. Who is preparing I mean it who is no one is except for us. My whole family thinks I'm funny and a little paranoid and I am constantly telling them buy food stock up. I am sure I'll be feeding their worthless asses real soon and whats sad is they have no where near the debt I have and could stock up alot faster than I could. I am sure I'll abandon my house and move in with the inlaws because there will be safety in numbers. I would say that would be the best bet take in You're relatives and make sure their all packing because the more people You have the better.
jonahtrainer
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- Jul 11, 2007
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I agree. Great post. The Summer Dollar Evaporation is underway.
Perry
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Thanks llepard.
The damage has already begun yet I can't help wonder if there will be something that triggers a huge one day collapse similar to what happened on black Thursday(Thursday, Monday & Tuesday) of 1929.
Actually I'm not even sure this is possible. If I remember correctly there are mechanisms in place that automatically stop the market.
I agree that this is a suckers rally. It has been done again and again and again over the years.
The damage has already begun yet I can't help wonder if there will be something that triggers a huge one day collapse similar to what happened on black Thursday(Thursday, Monday & Tuesday) of 1929.
Actually I'm not even sure this is possible. If I remember correctly there are mechanisms in place that automatically stop the market.
I agree that this is a suckers rally. It has been done again and again and again over the years.
Danke
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Why not. It is unsecured debt. How are they gonna collect if the SHTF? Heck, people walk away for credit card debt all the time now. And months later, they are getting offers in the mail. Go figure...
I work at a local bank in CHicago area. Although the bank has very strong fundamentals and didn't give out those bad loans, it's still affected since "the rich" clients can't sell their houses. To prepare and to deal with whatever happens, the banks just set aside 80% of their yearly earnings...
llepard
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Coins are better because the ETF's can go bankrupt and might be caught up in the derivatives mess. Having said that, I own some of the etf's in some accounts because they are more convenient than coins. Diversification. Coins would be better but some of each make sense.
WRellim
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- Sep 29, 2007
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Larry's advice is solid -- although I would call it as "conservative CAUTION" and a wise "battening down the hatches" before the storm rather than as a "PANIC" -- and I've been shifting in a similar "defensive" fashion for several months (well actually slowly over past 3 years... since before Bernanke got in but MUCH more so in past few moths).
I think the *key* thing to remember here is that what you are trying to do is PRESERVE your current "saved" wealth -- or as much as can be preserved through the current "upheaval" & any approaching "financial storm" (whether you picture it as a tsunami or hurricane ...or as a blizzard or "long-hard winter" or a biblical "seven years of famine" -- or perhaps a "wildfire" for those in California... whatever you want for a metaphor -- the goal is to endure it and come out the other side while suffering as little LOSS as possible).
Exactly what is currently happening -- Inflation? how much? Is it just the Fed or is it dollars being "repatriated" by foreigners buying American firms and other stateside assets? (More on this presently***).
Or conversely, we certainly have some "deflationary" tendencies as well -- banks trying to pull in reserves, tightening loans, etc. Industry & business cutting back or delaying purchases and investments, laying off workers or cutting hours & holding off on raises (squeezing the employees). I'm even seeing clients delaying payments of invoices again (something I haven't seen since 87 & 88).
So the thing is that you want REAL diversity of liquidity here -- not the "fake" diversity of mutual funds and 401K's indexed to the DJI -- but rather diversity that allows you to:
The FIRST goal means fill up the larder (with stuff you WILL consume ANYWAY) -- canned and dry foodstuff that your family typically uses are a solid idea here. Especially important are the things that are a) non-perishable, b) come from far away, or c) are likely to go WAY up once panic sets in... things like coffee, tobacco, canned (+ dried) meats & fruit, plus staples like sugar, flour & especially spices (!) etc.
The SECOND goal ...of "maintaining some comforts" means a lot of the consumable we all just "take for granted" that they'll be cheap -- everything from cleaning products (laundry soap, Lysol spray, etc) to things like Toilet Paper, Kleenex, Paper Towels & Napkins.
Plus "comfort" can also mean "standard" technology things that are now "bargains" (via the currently super-cheap imports) and whose REAL-WORLD inherent value will likely stay solid over time Microwave Ovens, Coffeemakers, etc (and as opposed to fast changing, quickly obsoleted things like computers or TV's).
And not to go "nuts" but making certain your major appliances (water heater, furnace, water softener, stove & refrigerator) are all in "top shape" and able to last the next 5 to 10 years. (Why? Simple, you can go buy an "extra" toaster or coffeemaker right now for $10... they are rather unlikely to get much cheaper, but very likely to go up dramatically, in 2 years that same $10 toaster or coffeemaker could easily cost $100 or more. Likewise, a new water heater might be $400 now, but will likely be two, three, five, or even ten times that price in a year or two).
The point of the above is NOT to become a huge "hoarder" of anything in particular (you're goal is NOT to buy enough inventory to open an appliance store in mid-depression) -- but rather to realize that "goods" maintain their value -- with the current US system of "Just-in-Time" and all businesses maintaining LOW levels of inventories (JIT literally "bites the big one" in a hyper-inflated economy, "inventory turns" are worthless unless you CAN restock immediately, wealth is STABLE commodities instead of DEVALUED currency units)... If and when the bottom drops out of the economy, and imports become expensive, replacing such items will become EXPENSIVE. Plus "extras" of these types of goods are easily useful for barter as well.
And the THIRD goal -- that of shifting about 50% of your LIQUID savings into things OTHER than US Dollar denominated things (i.e. into foreign currencies, gold & silver coin, food, "store-able consumables" & supplies, etc) will help you MAINTAIN the value of that 50% REGARDLESS of whether we have deflation/inflation or even (worst case) Weimar/Zimbabwe style hyperinflation.
And yet also... NOTHING is lost to you via the above steps even if NONE of the above "scary stuff" happens... if the Fed can somehow manage to "pull a rabbit from the hat" and we can avoid a crack-up and instead allow things to "slowly correct" over a few years (albeit with the demographic troubles ahead and a likely "NewNewDealDeal" via Obama/McInCain we still got MAJOR problems ahead) -- You will still be able to EAT all of that food, and USE any/all of those consumables, or replace the toaster or coffeemaker (the current ones will die eventually) with the "new" one from the attic... etc.
The worst is that you *might* have missed out on a small "recovery" increase in the stock market (say 5% or 10% increase).
And sure, there will likely be some people who will make gobs of money shorting the market, picking up real-estate cheap at foreclosures, or other assets and even businesses at "fire-sale" prices... but chances are YOU are *NOT* one of those people (and if you *try* to be you are MORE likely to mistime it and lose your shirt than you are to end up as the next "Mr. Potter" from "It's a Wonderful Life" ).
Again... goal is to weather the storm in a "calm" fashion... and come out the other side higher and drier than the neighbors that CHOOSE not to do likewise.
*** BTW, despite what others (or even THEY themselves may think) Bernanke and the "Fed" are *not* 100% in control of whether the dollar inflates anymore... anyone "holding" a major amount of US dollars can cause dramatic "inflation" and devaluation simply by either cutting back of their buying of Treasuries (remember value is "at the margin") or even choosing to "spend" some of those holdings back into the US Economy...
On the Timing of that... well, THIS IS SHEER SPECULATION ON MY PART, but I have long felt that China will reach a certain "tipping point" at which the U.S. will no longer be THAT important of a market to them -- a point at which they will have already absconded with the majority of the "family jewels" in the forms of engineering, technology, manufacturing equipment and "know-how" -- a point that they will want to "cut the apron strings" (or the proverbial "umbilical cord"). WHEN they have reached that point, while not wishing the US any harm (we will still be an important customer) -- they will no longer want to suffer the "loss" that their dollar holdings cause them. (To date, by buying and holding dollars... they have also "caught" our entire manufacturing, engineering & technology base... cheap at twice the price!)
My key point is that I think China has ALREADY reached that "tipping point" but has been purposefully "holding back" -- not for our sweet sake -- but rather because they want to be "accepted" as "having arrived" as THE major force in the world... which is the whole "goal" of their hosting the Olympics, and which they have been very UNWILLING to jeopardize. The 2008 Beijing Olympics are China's literal "Coming of Age Ball" -- and much like Nazi Germany's 1936 Olympiad (although with LESS antagonism) are intended as the showcase of their country to everyone else.
Once that has been completed... once they have "shown the world" then they will no longer need to maintain their "peg" against the dollar. They MAY still buy Treasury securities, but they will also want to "repatriate" a lot of those dollars... and a downturn in the US economy that would cause "fire-sale" prices on US Firms and assets would play right into that as an "extra benefit." And if China does it, Japan and other countries will follow suit -- better to get 50 or 75 cents on a dollar NOW than 10 or even only 5 cents later on -- they are like a pack of wolves circling a downed animal... once ONE of them goes for a chunk of meat, the others will go too, it's just that no one wants to be first.
I think the *key* thing to remember here is that what you are trying to do is PRESERVE your current "saved" wealth -- or as much as can be preserved through the current "upheaval" & any approaching "financial storm" (whether you picture it as a tsunami or hurricane ...or as a blizzard or "long-hard winter" or a biblical "seven years of famine" -- or perhaps a "wildfire" for those in California... whatever you want for a metaphor -- the goal is to endure it and come out the other side while suffering as little LOSS as possible).
Exactly what is currently happening -- Inflation? how much? Is it just the Fed or is it dollars being "repatriated" by foreigners buying American firms and other stateside assets? (More on this presently***).
Or conversely, we certainly have some "deflationary" tendencies as well -- banks trying to pull in reserves, tightening loans, etc. Industry & business cutting back or delaying purchases and investments, laying off workers or cutting hours & holding off on raises (squeezing the employees). I'm even seeing clients delaying payments of invoices again (something I haven't seen since 87 & 88).
So the thing is that you want REAL diversity of liquidity here -- not the "fake" diversity of mutual funds and 401K's indexed to the DJI -- but rather diversity that allows you to:
- Keep your head above water financially;
- As much as possible to "maintain some comforts" as well THROUGHOUT the storm.
- Preserve your savings -- shift about 50% of your saved wealth in things OTHER than US Dollar units; i.e. in something that is "un-hyper-inflatable."
The FIRST goal means fill up the larder (with stuff you WILL consume ANYWAY) -- canned and dry foodstuff that your family typically uses are a solid idea here. Especially important are the things that are a) non-perishable, b) come from far away, or c) are likely to go WAY up once panic sets in... things like coffee, tobacco, canned (+ dried) meats & fruit, plus staples like sugar, flour & especially spices (!) etc.
The SECOND goal ...of "maintaining some comforts" means a lot of the consumable we all just "take for granted" that they'll be cheap -- everything from cleaning products (laundry soap, Lysol spray, etc) to things like Toilet Paper, Kleenex, Paper Towels & Napkins.
Plus "comfort" can also mean "standard" technology things that are now "bargains" (via the currently super-cheap imports) and whose REAL-WORLD inherent value will likely stay solid over time Microwave Ovens, Coffeemakers, etc (and as opposed to fast changing, quickly obsoleted things like computers or TV's).
And not to go "nuts" but making certain your major appliances (water heater, furnace, water softener, stove & refrigerator) are all in "top shape" and able to last the next 5 to 10 years. (Why? Simple, you can go buy an "extra" toaster or coffeemaker right now for $10... they are rather unlikely to get much cheaper, but very likely to go up dramatically, in 2 years that same $10 toaster or coffeemaker could easily cost $100 or more. Likewise, a new water heater might be $400 now, but will likely be two, three, five, or even ten times that price in a year or two).
The point of the above is NOT to become a huge "hoarder" of anything in particular (you're goal is NOT to buy enough inventory to open an appliance store in mid-depression) -- but rather to realize that "goods" maintain their value -- with the current US system of "Just-in-Time" and all businesses maintaining LOW levels of inventories (JIT literally "bites the big one" in a hyper-inflated economy, "inventory turns" are worthless unless you CAN restock immediately, wealth is STABLE commodities instead of DEVALUED currency units)... If and when the bottom drops out of the economy, and imports become expensive, replacing such items will become EXPENSIVE. Plus "extras" of these types of goods are easily useful for barter as well.
And the THIRD goal -- that of shifting about 50% of your LIQUID savings into things OTHER than US Dollar denominated things (i.e. into foreign currencies, gold & silver coin, food, "store-able consumables" & supplies, etc) will help you MAINTAIN the value of that 50% REGARDLESS of whether we have deflation/inflation or even (worst case) Weimar/Zimbabwe style hyperinflation.
And yet also... NOTHING is lost to you via the above steps even if NONE of the above "scary stuff" happens... if the Fed can somehow manage to "pull a rabbit from the hat" and we can avoid a crack-up and instead allow things to "slowly correct" over a few years (albeit with the demographic troubles ahead and a likely "NewNewDealDeal" via Obama/McInCain we still got MAJOR problems ahead) -- You will still be able to EAT all of that food, and USE any/all of those consumables, or replace the toaster or coffeemaker (the current ones will die eventually) with the "new" one from the attic... etc.
The worst is that you *might* have missed out on a small "recovery" increase in the stock market (say 5% or 10% increase).
And sure, there will likely be some people who will make gobs of money shorting the market, picking up real-estate cheap at foreclosures, or other assets and even businesses at "fire-sale" prices... but chances are YOU are *NOT* one of those people (and if you *try* to be you are MORE likely to mistime it and lose your shirt than you are to end up as the next "Mr. Potter" from "It's a Wonderful Life" ).
Again... goal is to weather the storm in a "calm" fashion... and come out the other side higher and drier than the neighbors that CHOOSE not to do likewise.
*** BTW, despite what others (or even THEY themselves may think) Bernanke and the "Fed" are *not* 100% in control of whether the dollar inflates anymore... anyone "holding" a major amount of US dollars can cause dramatic "inflation" and devaluation simply by either cutting back of their buying of Treasuries (remember value is "at the margin") or even choosing to "spend" some of those holdings back into the US Economy...
On the Timing of that... well, THIS IS SHEER SPECULATION ON MY PART, but I have long felt that China will reach a certain "tipping point" at which the U.S. will no longer be THAT important of a market to them -- a point at which they will have already absconded with the majority of the "family jewels" in the forms of engineering, technology, manufacturing equipment and "know-how" -- a point that they will want to "cut the apron strings" (or the proverbial "umbilical cord"). WHEN they have reached that point, while not wishing the US any harm (we will still be an important customer) -- they will no longer want to suffer the "loss" that their dollar holdings cause them. (To date, by buying and holding dollars... they have also "caught" our entire manufacturing, engineering & technology base... cheap at twice the price!)
My key point is that I think China has ALREADY reached that "tipping point" but has been purposefully "holding back" -- not for our sweet sake -- but rather because they want to be "accepted" as "having arrived" as THE major force in the world... which is the whole "goal" of their hosting the Olympics, and which they have been very UNWILLING to jeopardize. The 2008 Beijing Olympics are China's literal "Coming of Age Ball" -- and much like Nazi Germany's 1936 Olympiad (although with LESS antagonism) are intended as the showcase of their country to everyone else.
Once that has been completed... once they have "shown the world" then they will no longer need to maintain their "peg" against the dollar. They MAY still buy Treasury securities, but they will also want to "repatriate" a lot of those dollars... and a downturn in the US economy that would cause "fire-sale" prices on US Firms and assets would play right into that as an "extra benefit." And if China does it, Japan and other countries will follow suit -- better to get 50 or 75 cents on a dollar NOW than 10 or even only 5 cents later on -- they are like a pack of wolves circling a downed animal... once ONE of them goes for a chunk of meat, the others will go too, it's just that no one wants to be first.
Last edited:
llepard
Member
- Joined
- May 16, 2007
- Messages
- 1,030
Brilliant!
Very well said WRellim. Thanks for elaborating on what I said. I agree 100% with all of these suggestions.
Excellent analaysis of the fact that it is out of the FED's control and excellent thoughts on the China timing angle. I had not thought of that and it fits perfectly with what I see which is a crash in the next few months.
I also love the pack of wolves analogy. So true.
People......listen up.....
WRellim has a very clear view of what is going to happen. Follow his steps.
LWL
Very well said WRellim. Thanks for elaborating on what I said. I agree 100% with all of these suggestions.
Excellent analaysis of the fact that it is out of the FED's control and excellent thoughts on the China timing angle. I had not thought of that and it fits perfectly with what I see which is a crash in the next few months.
I also love the pack of wolves analogy. So true.
People......listen up.....
WRellim has a very clear view of what is going to happen. Follow his steps.
LWL
Last edited:
** I began to write this before 
WRellim posted, many similar ideas contained herein. **
I'm addressing more towards those with little to invest, and/or a chaotic situation, - less towards a general economic downturn.
(I tried to make a quick read in bold)
For those with little to invest, start with the basics, food/water.
Don Harrold just made a 1:56 long video about mortgage debt. Basically says if you can't afford your mortgage, sell.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DRA1pdY7CCg
Home prices will likely continue to fall. Why be stuck paying for a $200,000 home when in time you can buy it back for $150,000? Or less.
Don describes it as, if you don't own your home out-right, you're not a homeowner, you're a "mortgage payer".
Most people are losing their financial arses because they're stuck paying a mortgage on a house that's higher than the house is worth.
One can always rent until the prices stabilize.
I suppose it comes down to how much equity you have. If the house is 85% paid off, probably best to keep it.
If it's 15% paid off and prices continue to fall, you'll possibly lose your equity relative to value, so, if you sell now, no loss.
At least you can pocket the extra equity now and use it to buy at the bottom.
~~~~~~~~~~~
In general think "survival". Prepare for the worse, hope for the best.
The previous posts/scenarios do not include the possibility of chaos in terms of an attack, false-flag or real, here in America.
If a nuke or two goes off, and/or an EMP weapon ect, who knows what happens? No electricity? No food in stores?
No communications? Martial Law?
Round-ups and shipment to the "Detention Facillities" Halliburtan are building?
http://www.corpwatch.org/article.php?id=13554
Some "inside" sources say Bush Co. have already decided to attack Iran sometime before January.
If so, then what? Retaliation on American soil? All-out WWIII/IV?
Pure economic collapse will be a cake-walk compared to war at home.
What to do? Think basics. Food, water, vitamins, candles/flashlights, wind-up/solar shortwave-capable radio with light.
~~~~~~~~
Cut-back expenditures:
Reduce expenses to the max. Every dollar you spend less per day equals a yearly savings of $365.
Pack your lunch, quit buying that daily soda/coffee at the convenience store. Quit buying "fast-food".
Who really needs - going to "the movies", "the bar", restaurants? Corporate music, video games, magazines. A fancy car, the "latest" fashions?
Entertain yourself naturally, not by buying artificial entertainment, what Hollywood and the "Establishment" is selling (and brainwashing with).
Find your happiness "inside", not from buying it.
As much as possible, buy, stock-up and eat only what's on sale at the grocery store. Pass up name-brand items.
Get proteins from items other than more expensive meat.
Keep in mind - do you "need it", or just "want it"?
Generally, reduce expenses till it hurts.
Billions of people around the world live on essentially rice, bread, or less.
And if you get used to living on less while you have the choice, the easier it'll be if/when you don't have a choice.
~~~~~~~~~~~
Investments ect:
1. Water - most basic need - if water is cut-off or contaminated, you won't last long without it.
Get quality water, not the crap they sell in small plastic bottles at the store,
and especially not the fluoride-poisoned polluted crap that comes out of the tap.
I use LeBleu.. distilled pure water. Comes in 5 gallon bottles for less than $8 each.
http://www.lebleu.com/
Estimate a gallon a day per person. Water may not be cut off, but if it is.. you'll need it more than anything.
Spending $75-$100 to get 50+ gallons of clean/pure water that'll keep a family of 4 alive for a few weeks is prudent.
Get a canteen(s) and/or plastic containers like the collapsible portable camping type for emergency travel.
2. Food - you can get dehydrated food that lasts for years and is good to eat even if nothing happens. http://www.efoodsdirect.com/
And vitamins to make up for loss of food nutritional value.
If/when you can't afford due to (hyper)inflation, or even get food in stores at all, you'll need a back-up supply to live,
$1000 or so spent now will buy you a few months of life, later it may buy you a few days.
Camping gear to cook with outside is good to have as well.
3. Power/light - generator, batteries, flashlights, radio, candles. If power goes out, your whole world will be rocked.
You can't get gas at the pumps if there's no power to pump it ect ect.
Imagine your world without electricity and prepare for it.
4. Clothes - basic outside-elements protective gear - if you're homeless for some reason, you'll need to be able to survive outside.
5. Shelter - got a tent?
6. Protection - If you have supplies, you may have to defend them.
7. Get in shape - you may have to run to get away from danger, you may have to walk for miles carrying things.
It's essential to be able to handle physical exertion.
6. Means of exchange - Some extra cash at home plus small value silver coins or other barter-able items people would trade for
for things you might need.
7. "Go" pack - If the SHTF, you may need to move fast.
Some kind of back-pack ect filled with a few days of essentials that you can grab-n-go is prudent to have prepared.
~~~~~~~~~
In other words -
-having electronic digits saved up in a bank or invested won't do you a bit of good if
- food supply/water supply/communications/electricity is shut-down.
First and foremost, you need essentials that you can physically touch.
And a person with only food and water will live a lot longer than a person with only gold and silver coins.
In fact, a little food and water could become more valuable than a little gold and silver.
Anything physical is better than electronic digits.
~~~~~~~~~
The cities could become a trap - no supplies, riots, martial law, targets in a war. Basically areas of general chaos.
Prepare an escape plan.
A few acres in the country, (owned or pre-identified) - with a hand-pump water well or other water supply -
that you can retreat/escape to for safety - may help you survive.
Kind of like a house fire escape plan...
if you plan ahead for how to leave population centers at a moments notice, and where to go,
you'll have a much better chance for escape and survival.
Then you won't waste time trying to figure out what to do, you'll know what to do.
~~~~~~~~~~
Short answer -
Storable water and food should be your first investment.
Electronic digits should be your last. (Bank accounts, stocks ect)
Initial investments should be things you'll need or would use anyway, no matter what happens.
If you don't have much money, first buy things that will ensure your survival short-term,
and that you - can/will - use/consume - in any case.
Remember, it never hurts to prepare for the worse, though, continue to work for and pray for the best.
Always - don't panic, stay calm - and keep your wits about you. You'll need a cool and calm head to survive.
I'm addressing more towards those with little to invest, and/or a chaotic situation, - less towards a general economic downturn.
(I tried to make a quick read in bold)
For those with little to invest, start with the basics, food/water.
Here's a question...what would you advise poor people to do? My family is young, my husband is a grad student...we don't have thousands of dollars anywhere. Buy food and hope that enough people's ships will be sinking that the mortgage company won't be in a hurry to boot us?
Don Harrold just made a 1:56 long video about mortgage debt. Basically says if you can't afford your mortgage, sell.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DRA1pdY7CCg
Home prices will likely continue to fall. Why be stuck paying for a $200,000 home when in time you can buy it back for $150,000? Or less.
Don describes it as, if you don't own your home out-right, you're not a homeowner, you're a "mortgage payer".
Most people are losing their financial arses because they're stuck paying a mortgage on a house that's higher than the house is worth.
One can always rent until the prices stabilize.
I suppose it comes down to how much equity you have. If the house is 85% paid off, probably best to keep it.
If it's 15% paid off and prices continue to fall, you'll possibly lose your equity relative to value, so, if you sell now, no loss.
At least you can pocket the extra equity now and use it to buy at the bottom.
~~~~~~~~~~~
In general think "survival". Prepare for the worse, hope for the best.
The previous posts/scenarios do not include the possibility of chaos in terms of an attack, false-flag or real, here in America.
If a nuke or two goes off, and/or an EMP weapon ect, who knows what happens? No electricity? No food in stores?
No communications? Martial Law?
Round-ups and shipment to the "Detention Facillities" Halliburtan are building?
http://www.corpwatch.org/article.php?id=13554
Some "inside" sources say Bush Co. have already decided to attack Iran sometime before January.
If so, then what? Retaliation on American soil? All-out WWIII/IV?
Pure economic collapse will be a cake-walk compared to war at home.
What to do? Think basics. Food, water, vitamins, candles/flashlights, wind-up/solar shortwave-capable radio with light.
~~~~~~~~
Cut-back expenditures:
Reduce expenses to the max. Every dollar you spend less per day equals a yearly savings of $365.
Pack your lunch, quit buying that daily soda/coffee at the convenience store. Quit buying "fast-food".
Who really needs - going to "the movies", "the bar", restaurants? Corporate music, video games, magazines. A fancy car, the "latest" fashions?
Entertain yourself naturally, not by buying artificial entertainment, what Hollywood and the "Establishment" is selling (and brainwashing with).
Find your happiness "inside", not from buying it.
As much as possible, buy, stock-up and eat only what's on sale at the grocery store. Pass up name-brand items.
Get proteins from items other than more expensive meat.
Keep in mind - do you "need it", or just "want it"?
Generally, reduce expenses till it hurts.
Billions of people around the world live on essentially rice, bread, or less.
And if you get used to living on less while you have the choice, the easier it'll be if/when you don't have a choice.
~~~~~~~~~~~
Investments ect:
1. Water - most basic need - if water is cut-off or contaminated, you won't last long without it.
Get quality water, not the crap they sell in small plastic bottles at the store,
and especially not the fluoride-poisoned polluted crap that comes out of the tap.
I use LeBleu.. distilled pure water. Comes in 5 gallon bottles for less than $8 each.
http://www.lebleu.com/
Estimate a gallon a day per person. Water may not be cut off, but if it is.. you'll need it more than anything.
Spending $75-$100 to get 50+ gallons of clean/pure water that'll keep a family of 4 alive for a few weeks is prudent.
Get a canteen(s) and/or plastic containers like the collapsible portable camping type for emergency travel.
2. Food - you can get dehydrated food that lasts for years and is good to eat even if nothing happens. http://www.efoodsdirect.com/
And vitamins to make up for loss of food nutritional value.
If/when you can't afford due to (hyper)inflation, or even get food in stores at all, you'll need a back-up supply to live,
$1000 or so spent now will buy you a few months of life, later it may buy you a few days.
Camping gear to cook with outside is good to have as well.
3. Power/light - generator, batteries, flashlights, radio, candles. If power goes out, your whole world will be rocked.
You can't get gas at the pumps if there's no power to pump it ect ect.
Imagine your world without electricity and prepare for it.
4. Clothes - basic outside-elements protective gear - if you're homeless for some reason, you'll need to be able to survive outside.
5. Shelter - got a tent?
6. Protection - If you have supplies, you may have to defend them.
7. Get in shape - you may have to run to get away from danger, you may have to walk for miles carrying things.
It's essential to be able to handle physical exertion.
6. Means of exchange - Some extra cash at home plus small value silver coins or other barter-able items people would trade for
for things you might need.
7. "Go" pack - If the SHTF, you may need to move fast.
Some kind of back-pack ect filled with a few days of essentials that you can grab-n-go is prudent to have prepared.
~~~~~~~~~
In other words -
-having electronic digits saved up in a bank or invested won't do you a bit of good if
- food supply/water supply/communications/electricity is shut-down.
First and foremost, you need essentials that you can physically touch.
And a person with only food and water will live a lot longer than a person with only gold and silver coins.
In fact, a little food and water could become more valuable than a little gold and silver.
Anything physical is better than electronic digits.
~~~~~~~~~
The cities could become a trap - no supplies, riots, martial law, targets in a war. Basically areas of general chaos.
Prepare an escape plan.
A few acres in the country, (owned or pre-identified) - with a hand-pump water well or other water supply -
that you can retreat/escape to for safety - may help you survive.
Kind of like a house fire escape plan...
if you plan ahead for how to leave population centers at a moments notice, and where to go,
you'll have a much better chance for escape and survival.
Then you won't waste time trying to figure out what to do, you'll know what to do.
~~~~~~~~~~
Short answer -
Storable water and food should be your first investment.
Electronic digits should be your last. (Bank accounts, stocks ect)
Initial investments should be things you'll need or would use anyway, no matter what happens.
If you don't have much money, first buy things that will ensure your survival short-term,
and that you - can/will - use/consume - in any case.
Remember, it never hurts to prepare for the worse, though, continue to work for and pray for the best.
Always - don't panic, stay calm - and keep your wits about you. You'll need a cool and calm head to survive.
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llepard
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Two excellent articles describing this financial situation today.
http://www.eurointelligence.com/#
See the articles by Satyajit Das.
http://www.eurointelligence.com/#
See the articles by Satyajit Das.
WRellim
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RE: China timing angle
The USA and European countries have hosted the Olympics so many times it's just a "ho-hum" thing to us (or in many cases a literal nuisance and annoyance!).
But the Chinese (people AND government) are a different story... they are really, REALLY excited about this, and have been working VERY hard for many YEARS now to put on the best possible "face".
This really can't be overemphasized. The Chinese REALLY want and need "Beijing 2008" to be the "kickoff" to a new "Chinese Century" (and let's be honest... they want a new Chinese dominated Millenium!)
Seriously, it is hard for us with our little +200 year history to envision the "mindset" of Chinese peoples regarding their own +3,500 to +5,000 to even +7,000 year history (from the time of the Pharoahs in Egypt straight through to modern days, different "dynasties" sure... but a continuous nearly-unbroken line of a "civilization" as a society and large nation.)
To the Chinese, their country *IS* (and always WAS) the dominant society on Earth -- it is the "Middle Kingdom" (between Heaven and Hell) ...and the last one hundred years or so, of China being a "third world country" are the real aberration.
Prior to that, China was for thousands of years, nearly always (within its own sphere) THE MOST IMPORTANT country; they were the largest, most innovative, highest technology, most organized, systematized, and (relatively) the most "peaceful" and prosperous civilization on the Earth.
They view the "west" and especially the US and Europe as the REAL "upstarts" -- when we think of them "stealing" our inventions of cars, computers, etc. -- well the Chinese think the opposite... "Hmmm, where did you get PAPER, PRINTING, GUNPOWDER, PORCELAIN, etc." -- literally we would not have toilets, much less toilet paper without the initial Chinese inventions, so the next time you ...well, thank the ancient Chinese inventors as well as Mr. John Crapper! (And before you talk about copyrights and patents... who exactly earns the royalties on Sun Tzu's "Art of War" or Lau Tzu's "Tao Te Ching" -- or how about the technology licenses for paper, gunpowder & porcelain?).
You see, while "patents and copyrights" are a good idea -- the "Disney-Forever" insanity is strangling OUR society AT LEAST as effectively as the Dowager Empress and Chairman Mao strangled China. (cf Gridlock Economy -- not necessarily advocating the book's solutions, but the diagnosis of the problem is correct).
If you take the long-term view of the world, and especially one that involves the demographics of the worlds larger populations... is it all that surprising that China (with nearly 20% of the worlds people) and India (with over 15% of the people) should in time "reclaim" greater significance in the world?
The continued dominance of the world by a country with only 5% of the people (USA) -- taking over from dominance by the people from a tiny island (Britain) which now has only 1% of the people living... or even before that from a group of other similar previous tiny countries (the Dutch, French, Spanish, Portuguese empires, etc)... just doesn't seem likely in a long-term "stability" sense.
But from a viewpoint of LIBERTY - the rise of China from its ashes is NOT a bad thing. Two hundred years ago, China was a constricted, stratified, almost "petrified" country that stifled innovation and business with an insanely large bureaucracy and endless array of rules and laws (remind you of anything?). The past 100 years have been a rough time for the Chinese people... the "enlightenment" and western-style ideas finally brought down the last of the "empire" dynasties, and they have been struggling with a host of intervening invaders, governments, philosophies and tyrants ever since.
China no longer seems bent on using the military... they have in the end chosen TRADE as their means of return to world prominence.
Sure they have a ways to go yet as far as freedoms are concerned (don't we all?) but over a BILLION people are now engaged in an inventive, entrepreneurial, modern manufacturing society... a "locomotive" of immense size for liberty.
So don't be surprised if 20 years from now some of the major "new" inventions (like the old ones of paper, porcelain, and printing) the ones that resolve energy and food problems end up coming from the land with 1/5 of the world's population... And yes the products you buy and use will probably have funny little squiggly characters on them... but is that really all that different from the 1,000's of obscure "icons" we already have on the buttons?
Well, I've digressed enough for one day (and way too much for one post)!
Cheers!
I don't know how to say this without sounding like ghemenger, and I can't say much but there's another new bank collapse coming any day now. Let's just say a high ranking birdie told me that it's time for a bank run before the FDIC comes in.
This is very very soon and very very scary. For the first time, the collapse seems not only real, but imminent... I'm most pissed cause I'm only almost 30 and have to live with this crap (like most of us) durring my peak years. I've always wanted to become wealthy. Now I'll feel good to not go hungry.
This is very very soon and very very scary. For the first time, the collapse seems not only real, but imminent... I'm most pissed cause I'm only almost 30 and have to live with this crap (like most of us) durring my peak years. I've always wanted to become wealthy. Now I'll feel good to not go hungry.
ItsTime
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Ive been thinking the same thing. I have the most money saved I have ever had in my life and I am now thinking it will be toilet paper. I hate taking chances so I am scared to buy gold and silver. But at the same time believe things are going to get far worse. ESP if there is another terrorist attack, be it black flag or not.
I'm making another food run tomorrow. We have about a months worth of food I want 3 or 4 and I dont know if that will be enough.
amy31416
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This stuff is disturbing, but it's better to know than not. I'm not personally afraid to invest in gold/silver/commodities--but I'm afraid to invest my mother's money in it and she's given me the reigns to invest for her. I am pretty torn about it.
It's one thing if it's my money, but if I sit on my hands and don't invest it for my mother and she loses everything, I'll blame myself. If I do invest in it for her and she loses money, I'll blame myself.
Many thanks to Lepard, Mark and Wrellim for their excellent posts.
acptulsa
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Gold and silver are popular primarily for their safety. Some here exaggerate it--it does fluctuate--but it is about as stable as you could ask an investment to be. One thing to remember is that every disaster is rife with opportunity. When the fluctuation turns into a major correction, every solid company's stock will be on sale at clearance prices. Bargain time!
And, yes, at that moment (when it is far, far too late for any sensible person to jump into that market) your precious metals will be in demand--and up. Lots of money to snap up bargains with. If things go according to past trends.
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raiha
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Llepard thanks. I don't have any money but im fit and healthy with a tent and we live in a food basket.
All i can say is i'm sorry after all the money you spent on the campaign, it did not come up trumps. Why do humans always have to learn the hard way????
Mace the force be with you and yours. Anyone want to come live in my foodbasket i will do all i can do to help you...find a wifie/ husband for you even and make you feel welcome. All you have to do is teach me about guns.LOL
All i can say is i'm sorry after all the money you spent on the campaign, it did not come up trumps. Why do humans always have to learn the hard way????
Mace the force be with you and yours. Anyone want to come live in my foodbasket i will do all i can do to help you...find a wifie/ husband for you even and make you feel welcome. All you have to do is teach me about guns.LOL
acptulsa
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We have quite a breadbasket here, too. Believe me.
By the way, precious metals are stable but they don't pay dividends and it takes a correction of about 7.0 on the Richter Scale to get them to gain a whole lot of value. They are mainly useful for awaiting the correction--or spending after the fall of civilization (and I, for one, am not convinced society won't survive the next major correction).
By the way, precious metals are stable but they don't pay dividends and it takes a correction of about 7.0 on the Richter Scale to get them to gain a whole lot of value. They are mainly useful for awaiting the correction--or spending after the fall of civilization (and I, for one, am not convinced society won't survive the next major correction).
