Lawson - Early voing numbers

[Jeremy]

http://blog.lawsonforcongress.com/2008/11/03/early-voting-by-the-numbers/

I think this is good news, as long as more Republicans are going to vote

 

[matratzac]

go bj!

 

[MRoCkEd]

It's only good news if a lot of those dems voted for lawson!

 

[Jeremy]

50% early voting probably means they got the chance to talk to more people since everyone was spread out more

 

[ronpaulhawaii]

It's only good news if a lot of those dems voted for lawson!

What makes it good is that we had all of the early voting places covered and Lawson is actually an easy sell, across the spectrum.

Cautious optimism reigns

 

[tremendoustie]

What makes it good is that we had all of the early voting places covered and Lawson is actually an easy sell, across the spectrum.

Cautious optimism reigns

I don't know if this is something you really shouldn't answer on a public forum, but I'd certainly be interested to know what the approximate ratio was between people you were able to convince and people you couldn't -- just a general feel.

 

[brandon]

wow, 47% of registered voters vote early? Is it usually that high?

 

[robmpreston]

I don't see how this is good for Lawson, if anything it shows what a huge wall he's up against with the crazy number of democrats to republicans.

 

[Jeremy]

wow, 47% of registered voters vote early? Is it usually that high?

no

 

[itshappening]

I sense Lawson will be buried under the avalanche of Obamatrons voting straight ticket in that district, Price will have a lot to be thankful for

I hope im wrong, best of luck to RPH and the crew

 

[Jeremy]

I don't see how this is good for Lawson, if anything it shows what a huge wall he's up against with the crazy number of democrats to republicans.

Then you don't know much about this race. We already knew that for the last year.... old news...

 

[trey4sports]

I don't see how this is good for Lawson, if anything it shows what a huge wall he's up against with the crazy number of democrats to republicans.

we already knew that the district was heavy Dem. It just matters how many Democrats we've converted

 

[MRoCkEd]

we already knew that the district was heavy Dem. It just matters how many Democrats we've converted

tru dat

 

[slacker921]

wow, 47% of registered voters vote early? Is it usually that high?

not in NC.. no. They were reporting Saturday that there were lines 6hrs long at the early voting locations... we're seeing something that is unprecedented.


Another indicator is this.. in early voting (19 to 3 days before Election Day) people in NC could do "one stop voting" and register and vote at the same time. .. take a look at the change in registration:

10/10/2008 Democratic: 2,758,161 Republican: 1,967,441 Libertarian: 1,987 Unaffiliated: 1,344,688 Total: 6,072,277
11/03/2008 Democratic: 2,865,662 Republican: 2,002,601 Libertarian: 3,607 Unaffiliated: 1,393,960 Total: 6,265,830

(sorry.. I didn't grab the data closer to 10/15... )
Democrats: +107,501
Republicans: +35,160
Libertarian +1,620 (but hey.. almost double! heh..)
Unaffiliated: +49,272

The Republicans in NC are in for a major loss. Let's hope the poll workers that were out there for Lawson converted a LOT of Democrats.

 

[Shotdown1027]

I think this is good news. I think more Dems voted early, proportionally, than Republicans. And I think that if every unaffilliated voters at the polls was met with literature, it was likely that he/she voted Lawson over Price. If we excuse the unaffilliated voters from the count, because we have absolutely NO way of knowing who they voted for, then BJ scored 30.37%. So he would have needed to convert 41,000 Democrats to his side (assuming the unaffiliated voters split right down the middle).

I think it is far more likely that the majority of unaffilliated voters went for Lawson and just a very small handful of Democrats did. Still--we could see lightning strike.

 

[Andrew Ryan]

I really hope Lawson wins :o

 

[Shotdown1027]

We should see more Republicans voting on election day (by percentage) than voted in early voting,as compared to Democrats.

This is our perfect storm: More Republicans show up, proportionally, to vote on election day than did in early voting. Most unaffilliated voters vote for Lawson because of poll-working by the Lawson staff. A small percentage of Democrats go for Lawson because he represents change.

And if he loses--it isnt the end of the world. He'll have excellent name ID, a great organization already set up, and he'll have better Republican turnout in 2010.

 

[tremendoustie]

We should see more Republicans voting on election day (by percentage) than voted in early voting,as compared to Democrats.

This is our perfect storm: More Republicans show up, proportionally, to vote on election day than did in early voting. Most unaffilliated voters vote for Lawson because of poll-working by the Lawson staff. A small percentage of Democrats go for Lawson because he represents change.

And if he loses--it isnt the end of the world. He'll have excellent name ID, a great organization already set up, and he'll have better Republican turnout in 2010.

Of course, I'm hangin' on for the win, but doesn't he also get authority in the local GOP, as the nominee?

 

[robmpreston]

we already knew that the district was heavy Dem. It just matters how many Democrats we've converted

Except the vast majority of voters vote straight down the line for their party. So it's a huge hurdle.

 

[ronpaulhawaii]

I don't see how this is good for Lawson, if anything it shows what a huge wall he's up against with the crazy number of democrats to republicans.

It is a hill, not a wall, regardless, I spent my youth rockclimbing and walls don't intimidate me at all. The district has a large percentage of "progressive" voters who may traditionally vote democrat, but consider themselves open-minded and independent. It is all a matter of getting these swing voters to consider the issues. I have had very good luck with my pitches and have written a talking point sheet for the volunteers. It should, also, be noted that most of our fellow democrat poll workers are not against us and some are helping.

I sense Lawson will be buried under the avalanche of Obamatrons voting straight ticket in that district, Price will have a lot to be thankful for

I hope im wrong, best of luck to RPH and the crew

One thing to consider about the Obama voters is that many are first timers and don't have the partisan mentality we find in the die-hard liberal types.

This is why filling the polling place slots is so critical. We have been making headway. We have ~75% of our targeted spots filled and a little under 50% of the slots filled, overall. That is for 194 polling stations on a 12 hour day, you can imagine the coordination we are doing to fill these slots. Again, if anyone reading this is close and can come down and help, please do

Whether or not we win, a huge success is to get these first timers to vote a split ticket and set a precedent for future votes.

Thank you for the good wishes, prayers are good from the religious folk as well. We are doing everything humanly possible and maintaining cautious optimism