Jeb Bush is choice of conservatives, Romney is establishment pick

[Suzanimal]

Bush is conservatives choice?

With no obvious heir apparent as the Republican’s 2016 presidential pick, GOP voters are unsure which of the potential 16 candidates they like, choosing “Other/Not Sure” ahead of Mitt Romney, Jeb Bush and Sen. Rand Paul in a new poll released Christmas Day.

In the new Zogby Analytics poll, “Other” won with 19 percent, followed by Romney at 14 percent, Bush at 12 percent and Paul at 10 percent.

Among self-identifying Republicans, Mitt took first. Among self-identified conservatives, Bush was first, a surprise considering the number of hard-line right-wingers lining up to oppose his candidacy.

Pollster John Zogby, who writes Secrets’ weekly report card on President Obama, said that on the Democratic side Hillary Rodham Clinton is the top choice and wipes out the GOP field.

“Clinton leads all of the Republican top tier candidates handsomely — 49 percent-34 percent against Bush; 51 percent-33 percent against Paul; 48 percent-33 percent against Christie; and 50 percent to 35 percent against Romney,” he said in a statement about the new poll.

“If the election were held today the next president is a ‘she,’ ” said Zogby.

The poll was of 231 likely Republican voters with a margin of sampling error of +/-6.6 percentage points.

From his statement to Secrets:

In a potentially huge field of candidates vying for the Republican nomination for President in 2016, the winner today is Other/Not Sure with 19%. In a new poll of 231 likely Republican primary voters nationwide by Zogby Analytics, 2012 GOP nominee Romney leads the pack with 14%, followed by former Florida Governor Jeb Bush (12%), Kentucky Senator Rand Paul (10%), New Jersey Governor Chris Christie (8%), former Arkansas Governor and now Fox News Host Mike Huckabee (7%), Florida Senator Marco Rubio (7%), Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker (5%), Rep. and former Vice Presidential nominee Paul Ryan (4%), Texas Governor Rick Perry (4%), Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal (3%), Texas Senator Ted Cruz (3%), South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley (2%), former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum (1%), and both Ohio Senator Rob Portman and New Mexico Governor Susana Martinez tied at .3%.

Historically, since 1960 - (with the exception of 1964), the GOP tends to nominate the Gold Watch Candidate, i.e. the fellow who has been around the park the longest and is next in line. At the same time, historically, since 1968, the party has nominated the most "moderate" candidate in the field - with the exception of 1980 when the Gold Watch Candidate Ronald Reagan won over several more moderate candidates who split among themselves. This poll shows that the top four candidates do not fall within the strictest definition of "conservative" as defined by both the social and Christian conservative wings of the party. These more moderate split 44% of the total.

No one candidate emerges out of the pack by holding a significant lead among key GOP subgroups. Among self-identified Republicans, Romney leads Bush 16% to 13%, with Christie at 9%, Paul 8%, and Rubio and Ryan with 7% each. Among conservatives, Bush leads with 15% to Romney's 14%, Christie's, Rubio's, and Paul's 8%, Huckabee's 7%, and Walker's 6%.

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/c...l&utm_source=facebook.com&utm_campaign=buffer

 

[Matt Collins]

The 231 likely Republican voters is NOT a large enough sample size first of all, secondly, were these voters in the early states? If they weren't, then this poll doesn't matter either

 

[Peace&Freedom]

The 231 likely Republican voters is NOT a large enough sample size first of all, secondly, were these voters in the early states? If they weren't, then this poll doesn't matter either

The purpose of the low-sample poll was not to be accurate, its purpose was to provide another pretext for the media to talk up Bush, and so they are.

 

[Matt Collins]

The purpose of the low-sample poll was not to be accurate, it purpose was to provide another pretext for the media to talk up Bush, and so they are.

Yep, good call.