It's now a 2 way race between Romney and Paul!!!!!

[pacu44]

Don't count out Santorum too quickly. If BOTH Perry and Bachmann pull out and support Santorum, he immediately becomes viable. Especially if he inherits Perry's ground game.

the GOP will manufacture enough of a ground game, they dont want Paul and will drown him out with as many alternatives to make our position look abnormal to the mouth breathing fox news supporters...

 

[newbitech]

The campaign is playing the delegates game. Rumor also has it that FL is WTA, and in that case, the campaign could waste millions and end with zero delegates or invest that money in smaller states and end with a big chunk of the delegates.

SC is a mini FL in the sense that it is an early primary which has huge influence on the race. The influence isn't proportional to size or delegates in comparison to FL either. If the campaign by some miracle pulled off a win in SC the race would be wide open.

So, FL isn't a wise investment. Sorry that you're butthurt that they are ignoring your home state.

Exactly. It is all rumors. I am not even asking that the campaign try and run media ads down here. But they could at least return calls to our news outlets.

Check out this article. I am not BS'ing you. http://articles.orlandosentinel.com...n-paul-stealth-campaign-presidential-campaign

What bothers me is the total ignorance of the campaign towards this state. It doesn't take money (alot of which comes from this state) to return calls to the major newspapers. It doesn't take money to mention Florida in the list of states that Ron Paul will be moving on to after Iowa.

Unless Santorum is brought down a notch, he WILL win South Carolina. In fact, if you look at Ron Paul in South Carolina from 2008, he has a LONGGG way to go for South Carolina to matter. So if the argument is that South Carolina is winnable and that is why the money is being spent there, well that money is going to need to overcome A LOT.

S.C. went to McCain in 08, barely edging out the upstart Huckabee who won Iowa. Romney didn't do so hot coming in 4th behind Fred Thompson.

Check out what Lew Rockwell said about Ron Paul's <4% showing in S.C. in 2008 http://www.lewrockwell.com/blog/lewrw/archives/18873.html

That dynamic has not changed. Santorum is basically Huckabee now. Rick Perry is counting on S.C. as the anti-Romney non religious candidate, which is what Paul would be competing directly with. So those voters that turned out for McCain would need to be split between Perry and Paul. Given these dynamics, I am just not sure that ad buys in S.C. are worth the money either.

Essentially, the difference between the two strategies in each state is that Ron Paul is buying ads in S.C. hoping to lift up the religious vote. I am good with that on one hand, but I believe that if Ron Paul thinks he can win ALL of S.C. delegates in a proportional scenario (those are the rules of the GOP) then its a good move. Otherwise, he is scraping for what? 6 delegates? How does that money argument hold up? I don't think it does.

Assuming Florida is winner take all, that means the GOP didn't stick to it's rules in S.C. Either way only a RP win in S.C. delivers enough delegate to make the money worth it, if that is the argument for ignoring FL.

I think it's a momentum strategy to be honest, but that doesn't play well either by hoping the momentum from a good showing in N.H. and a S.C. win will carry right through FL.

Florida is just a momentum killer for this campaign. Not because it's unwinnable, but because the campaign is assuming that Florida is winner take all, even though the Florida grassroots are playing like it is going to be proportional. Even with a loss in Florida, Ron Paul needs to show up big down here. Same with S.C. to a lesser extent.

Why crush the momentum by completely dissing FLorida activist? Ron Paul got 62k votes down here in 2008. If he wants to keep his NATIONAL campaign going past Florida, he is going to need money. That money is going to come from amped up Florida grassroots who BELIEVE he can win! It is not going to come from depressed grassroots who think Florida and their efforts here just flat aren't worth it and don't matter.

 

[Deborah K]

the GOP will manufacture enough of a ground game, they dont want Paul and will drown him out with as many alternatives to make our position look abnormal to the mouth breathing fox news supporters...

If that's true, then wouldn't it be hilarious if we converted disappointed Obama dems and indies, and made Ron the alternative to Obama? I mean we're doing that already, to some degree. If we can't crack republicans, what other option do we have? The thought of dems and indies infiltrating the GOP cracks me up.

 

[eproxy100]

Gotta disagree with people who think Santorum is a real threat. Try search santorum on google and check out what the first result is

Romney is the primary threat.

People shouldn't despair. Despair is for losers. Focus on defeating the enemy - the media. Everybody here should be angry at the media.

Even if Ron Paul doesn't win now a strong showing will help Rand Paul in the future.

Keep fighting!

 

[newbitech]

Gotta disagree with people who think Santorum is a real threat. Try search santorum on google and check out what the first result is

Romney is the primary threat.

People shouldn't despair. Despair is for losers. Focus on defeating the enemy - the media. Everybody here should be angry at the media.

Even if Ron Paul doesn't win now a strong showing will help Rand Paul in the future.

Keep fighting!

Santorum WILL win S.C. if he is allowed to continue unmolested by the MSM, continues to attack Ron Paul, and is ignored by Romney. Perry and Gingrich will probably go after him, and Romney may squeak it out in S.C with Ron Paul also divying up the vote. He is going to be a player in S.C. finishing no less that 3rd if we are lucky behind Paul and Romney. Let's hope the grassroots in S.C. have better luck with the religious crowd than they did in Iowa.

 

[Original_Intent]

Santorum WILL win Iowa if he is allowed to continue unmolested by the MSM, continues to attack Ron Paul, and is ignored by Romney. Perry and Gingrich will probably go after him, and Romney may squeak it out in Iowa with Ron Paul also divying up the vote. He is going to be a player in S.C. finishing no less that 3rd if we are lucky behind Paul and Romney. Let's hope the grassroots in S.C. have better luck with the religious crowd than they did in Iowa.

Did you mean he will win New Hampshire or South Carolina? S.C., maybe, I don't see Santorum even contesting N.H., he needs evangelicals.

 

[speciallyblend]

can someone please stop matt collins BS and his false/multiple ids. This shit has to stop josh. I guess i need to leave this bs.

 

[newbitech]

Did you mean he will win New Hampshire or South Carolina? S.C., maybe, I don't see Santorum even contesting N.H., he needs evangelicals.

No I meant S.C. Yeah, he's not going to compete in NH. We do not have a clear non-religious anti-Romeny candidate, besides Ron Paul to shake out Romney in N.H. like McCain did. We saw the religious vote coalesce around Santorum in Iowa, with Paul taking some bites at it. Now we will see if N.H. still has an appetite for warmongering or if Ron Paul's message of liberty cannot be sacrificed for security has made up ground. There is not much to break up Romney in N.H. other than that message being heard. in 2008 Romney and McCain took a combined 70% of the vote. There is no McCain in this race, only the wannabe's like Perry and Newt.

If you throw Rudy G. into that pot, it's about 79% warmonger vote in N.H. in 2008. I don't expect Romney to get less than his 2008 32.2% unless turnout is substantially higher this time around. It wasn't in Iowa (2.5%) So we are talking 46.8% of the warmonger vote looking for a home in N.H. Huckabee I believe got a nice momentum vote of 11.4% which is possibly in the camp of less warmongering and not status quo, along with Paul's staunch 7.8%. I think this gives Paul's floor of around 19% which is consistent with what he was able to accomplish in Iowa in 4 years (2.5x's increase). So those numbers are going to get pulled from people who will show up new to vote for Ron Paul, and the people who simply won't vote because even though they are warmongers, they can't seem to accept Romney, probably because of his social policies. So now, you have a balance of around 35.5% of the warmonger vote that needs to be converted. Of which, Dr. Paul only needs to split off a little over 1/3 (13%) of that to compete with Romney at 32%.

Now look, you have Ron Paul sitting on 19% in N.H. as a floor. Mitt Romney sitting on 32% as a floor. Santorum say 12% momentum, but will give him a ceiling of around 15% on momentum with a smaller field. That leaves 34% up for grabs to split between 5-6 candidates. I don't see anyone cornering that vote, so I believe Romney walks off with N.H. by at least 10 points, leaving 21% to split with Paul, Gingrich, Perry, Santorum, Hunstman. I dont think Paul wins any of the old McCain/RudyG vote. Hunstman may emerge but he'll just split the war monger vote further. I think Gingrich emerges from the lower tier, leaving Perry hanging on to a thread in S.C.

Romney 42%
Ron Paul 19%
Santorum 15%
Gingrich 12%
Perry 7%
Hunstman 5%

Santorum could slide below Gingrich giving a boost to anyone around him, including Paul with the "telling the truth vote". Romney could be so revolting, that people just don't bother to come, and at the same time Paul could have a better turn out, "the shifting base vote".

Regardless, Paul is not a lock for second especially in similar turnout as last year. I think Paul has a good base on excellent turnout, but I don't think this is going to overcome the warmonger vote there in N.H. Santorum will carry momentum through N.H. to S.C. especially if he is able to take a piece of the anti-Romney non-religious warmonger vote and climb past Paul in the percieved "truth telling vote".

 

[Shane Harris]

yeah i am not buying the 2 man race crap. Our Campaign doesn't decide this 2 way race the media/gop establishment does

same:/ this race just showed me how truly powerful the media is. with less than 5 days of pimping a candidate he wins the caucus after being in high single digits/ low double digits. They will most likely do the same thing in every state. America is retarded. Im afraid Santorum will do very well in SC and then they will try to make it a two man race between santorum and romney. clearly when the media is pushing you you dont need money or organization or enthusiastic supporters.

 

[TruePatriot44]

I could see Newt or Perry winning South Carolina, which is good if Paul can not win. The more split the delegates are among the candidates, the more likely chance for a brokered convention where party activists could pull out a win for Paul.

 

[Krugerrand]

same:/ this race just showed me how truly powerful the media is. with less than 5 days of pimping a candidate he wins the caucus after being in high single digits/ low double digits. They will most likely do the same thing in every state. America is retarded. Im afraid Santorum will do very well in SC and then they will try to make it a two man race between santorum and romney. clearly when the media is pushing you you dont need money or organization or enthusiastic supporters.

That may be a good thing.

I'm not sure that an all-out Romney vs Paul would be to our advantage. Let Newt or Santorum carry on the slug-fest as long as possible. The trhee-way split could prove helpful.

 

[Uriah]

Santorum will waste all of his money in New Hampshire. He will be underfunded for South Carolina and Florida and then he will drop out. Lack of funds with little organization cannot carry momentum very well, if at all.

 

[newbitech]

of course, all of the strategising, momentum talk, etc etc etc grinds to a halt for 2 WEEKS after S.C. with the campaign taking a break while Florida "decides". We'll have to leave it up to Florida to keep the momentum going for two weeks in some of the largest media markets in the country without campaign support. I just don't get this strategy. At ALL!

 

[slamhead]

Beware of Louisiana. I remember from 2008 the establishment GOP played some dirty tricks on Ron Paul and stole his delegates. Anyone remember the details of that?

 

[Feeding the Abscess]

of course, all of the strategising, momentum talk, etc etc etc grinds to a halt for 2 WEEKS after S.C. with the campaign taking a break while Florida "decides". We'll have to leave it up to Florida to keep the momentum going for two weeks in some of the largest media markets in the country without campaign support. I just don't get this strategy. At ALL!

I'm kinda seeing what you're saying. There's little chance of winning Florida, but S.C.? That's even less likely.

Maybe they're hoping for a mid 20s finish in New Hampshire, plus a 15-20% finish in S.C. to push some momentum into Florida?

 

[jacmicwag]

You guys realize the MSM will now begin the squeeze and guess what, Ron Paul is the one gettin' squeezed out.

They will do everything in their power to make the "2 man race" between Santorum and Romney.

Let's not kid ourselves here.

i3rd place is NOWHERE CLOSE to a victory.

I'm not saying this is over. What i'm saying is be sober and realistic.

Seeing we are all playing political expert this morning , I'll throw in my two cents. Yes, they would love to get rid of RP as soon as possible but that ain't happening any time soon no matter what the media does. Also not happening is Newt leaving the race before the South has voted. He is polling too high down there not to give it a shot. Near term it will be a four man race until either Newt or Santorum falters. Ron will probably go the distance and conventional wisdom would probably predict a third place finish nationally. I can live with that if the message is spread far and wide and we end up with a bunch of delegates and a prime time speaking spot at the convention.

 

[bluesc]

of course, all of the strategising, momentum talk, etc etc etc grinds to a halt for 2 WEEKS after S.C. with the campaign taking a break while Florida "decides". We'll have to leave it up to Florida to keep the momentum going for two weeks in some of the largest media markets in the country without campaign support. I just don't get this strategy. At ALL!

Romney is going to win Florida one way or another.

 

[newbitech]

Romney is going to win Florida one way or another.

He did not in 2008?! I just don't understand the prevailing thought that Florida must be abandoned. The campaigned defined "WIN" in Iowa as taking delegates and momentum. True, to earn delegates in FL you have to get the most votes, which is what Romney did in Iowa. However! The momentum that would come from fighting tooth and nail in Florida and actually making a run at those delegates is what will "win" in Florida.

There is no way to win, if you don't even play the game. To me this just sends a terrible message to rather large 68k in 2008 and probably 150k now, supporters. It makes RP look unelectable to be quite frank.

I don't see any of the other less funded candidates blatantly overlooking Florida. They all have strategies here. Ah well. Screw it, I guess. Nothing for me to do here I guess. My state is not a part of the "top notch national organization" (I don't care), "the tremendous fundraising prowess" (I'll save my money for local politics and survival instead), "unequaled enthusiam among volunteers and supporters" (I'll be enthusiastic about finding better work, and volunteer for causes that are related to my neighborhood instead).

Just a pithetic ignorance of a major force in fundraising at the least. And a complete blunder in the campaign at worse.

 

[bluesc]

He did not in 2008?! I just don't understand the prevailing thought that Florida must be abandoned. The campaigned defined "WIN" in Iowa as taking delegates and momentum. True, to earn delegates in FL you have to get the most votes, which is what Romney did in Iowa. However! The momentum that would come from fighting tooth and nail in Florida and actually making a run at those delegates is what will "win" in Florida.

There is no way to win, if you don't even play the game. To me this just sends a terrible message to rather large 68k in 2008 and probably 150k now, supporters. It makes RP look unelectable to be quite frank.

I don't see any of the other less funded candidates blatantly overlooking Florida. They all have strategies here. Ah well. Screw it, I guess. Nothing for me to do here I guess. My state is not a part of the "top notch national organization" (I don't care), "the tremendous fundraising prowess" (I'll save my money for local politics and survival instead), "unequaled enthusiam among volunteers and supporters" (I'll be enthusiastic about finding better work, and volunteer for causes that are related to my neighborhood instead).

Just a pithetic ignorance of a major force in fundraising at the least. And a complete blunder in the campaign at worse.

Or it's just WTA and the huge amount of money would be better spent elsewhere rather than investing it all in a state we will likely lose. Don't give up based on what I say, I don't represent the campaign, you should call them or PM Collins and double check first.

 

[newbitech]

Or it's just WTA and the huge amount of money would be better spent elsewhere rather than investing it all in a state we will likely lose. Don't give up based on what I say, I don't represent the campaign, you should call them or PM Collins and double check first.

not giving up anything, the point is, why would the campaign blatantly send signals that FLorida does not matter? Why would the campaign refuse to talk to the media in some of the largest national media markets in the country, FOR FREE?!

It just doesn't make sense, and it won't make sense because I have been trying to get this answer for 4 years!