Is the world going crazy?

[r3volution 3.0]

I don't think that is correct. Without testing the entire US population, you have no idea what the real infection rate would be. Without an accurate number of infections you can't conclude a mortality rate.

You don't see how the death count would also be understated as a result of a shortage of test kits?

We are seeing no reports this is any more transmissible than the common seasonal flu.

Sure we are. Google it. Many reputable sources are putting the R0 at about twice that of the common flu, or about the same as Spanish flu.

But for arguments sake lets say it is twice as bad. So we see 100 million get sick for a few days instead of the normal seasonal 50 million. We see 100,000 deaths instead of the normal 50,000.

That's based on an unreasonably low mortality rate; can you show me any academic source that puts it that low?

I showed you The Lancet article putting it north of 3%, which is in line with the WHO estimate.

While regrettable and with sympathy to the families of the deceased, this is just not enough to destroy our economy and erode our civil liberties for. Statistically and looking at the big picture we are going to cause more damage to society with this hysteria than the virus does.

I'm a pragmatist, a cost-benefit person, so I'm open to that kind of reasoning.

But you're dramatically underestimating the cost of inaction.

Also, keep in mind that the public would largely close down the economy on their own initiative, regardless of what the state does.

 

[jmdrake]

The period from infection to death is quite long.

I think we'll see the death rate rise in the US and other countries where most of the infections are very recent.

Nope. The death rate is really about 1% according to this paper published by the CDC.

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/6/20-0233_article

It was about 12% in WuHan China which is the epicenter of the disease probably because people didn't realize initially how serious it was and so you had people dying without getting good healthcare.

I hate to admit it, but Donald Trump's "hunch" was right. The WHO estimate of 3 - 4% mortality was an overestimate.

 

[wizardwatson]

I think we're making it harder to understand than it needs to be.

Every "enlightened" financial related article seems to agree that the market was already F'ed. Rotten in the root. The speculative bubble is not coming back after this, this was it. Covid-19 was just the catalyst.

I think the same can be said of America.

We were already crazy/hysterical. We are obsessed with identity politics. We argue over pronouns and what bathroom people can go in to. Even during this crisis we obsess about the racist implications of calling it the "Chinese" virus.

The hysteria of bleeding hearts and throwing Trillions at this and the counter-culture hysteria of "hoax!" and conspiratorial analysis paralysis was already there. This crisis is simply making it apparent just like with the market.

That's how I see it.

 

[heavenlyboy34]

Verily, the crazy folks are being allowed out en masse.

 

[69360]

You don't see how the death count would also be understated as a result of a shortage of test kits?



Sure we are. Google it. Many reputable sources are putting the R0 at about twice that of the common flu, or about the same as Spanish flu.



That's based on an unreasonably low mortality rate; can you show me any academic source that puts it that low?

I showed you The Lancet article putting it north of 3%, which is in line with the WHO estimate.



I'm a pragmatist, a cost-benefit person, so I'm open to that kind of reasoning.

But you're dramatically underestimating the cost of inaction.

Also, keep in mind that the public would largely close down the economy on their own initiative, regardless of what the state does.

From the CDC website the 1918 flu infected 500,000,000 people and this 2019 flu has infected 250,000

If this thing ran it's course naturally it would not even be close.

 

[r3volution 3.0]

From the CDC website the 1918 flu infected 500,000,000 people and this 2019 flu has infected 250,000

The covid-19 epidemic isn't over, obviously, and so that comparison is meaningless.

At some point, there were only 250,000 cases on Spanish flu.

If this thing ran it's course naturally it would not even be close.

So you say. The doctors say otherwise.