Is the world going crazy?

[r3volution 3.0]

Ok for the sake of argument, lets say I agree with you.

Annual flu cases are 50 million and deaths are 55k according to the CDC.

We don't have a mass panic every flu season and destroy the economy for that.

Why for this virus? Not to be heartless but if this was 3xs worse than seasonal flu 150,000 would die. Statistically that isn't worth destroying the economy for.

I have no reasonable explanation other than mass hysteria.

As I said originally, it's both more deadly and more virulent than the flu.

Covid-19 appears to have a similar mortality rate and R0 to the Spanish Flu.

That infected about a third of the global population, killing 2-3% of those infected.

In today's term, for the US, that would mean about 2.5 million deaths (45x more than your figure for the flu).

That's why people are freaking out for this particular virus.

It's not hysteria.

...not to say there isn't some hysteria, but the underlying problem is real.

 

[Anti Federalist]

yes they have lost their minds

 

[Anti Federalist]

This was a dry run...that's the conspiracy

 

[pcosmar]

Is the world going crazy?

Been that way..
you are just awake enough to see it getting worse.

and it is getting worse..

 

[Suzanimal]

Hello everyone. I haven't posted here in a long time, but used to. I came across a recent article by Ron and it reminded me that maybe I could find fellow voices of reason here. It seems like most of the world is suffering mass hysteria. I figured there would be people like me still here who are just not that concerned about this virus. I don't really think it is some vast conspiracy, nor something created by a government as a weapon. It's just a virus, they happen all the time. You get flu like symptoms for a week and recover. Not a big deal. Yes some people have died. But the numbers are statistically very low. We are a nation of over 300 million and we shut down the whole country and potentially crash the economy over a few thousand with flu symptoms and 100 deaths? I am just in awe of the mass delusion and panic.

yes

Have you stocked up on Butt Wipe?

only single ply

 

[ChiefJustice]

Hello everyone. I haven't posted here in a long time, but used to. I came across a recent article by Ron and it reminded me that maybe I could find fellow voices of reason here. It seems like most of the world is suffering mass hysteria. I figured there would be people like me still here who are just not that concerned about this virus. I don't really think it is some vast conspiracy, nor something created by a government as a weapon. It's just a virus, they happen all the time. You get flu like symptoms for a week and recover. Not a big deal. Yes some people have died. But the numbers are statistically very low. We are a nation of over 300 million and we shut down the whole country and potentially crash the economy over a few thousand with flu symptoms and 100 deaths? I am just in awe of the mass delusion and panic.

Mass hysteria is clearly a big problem which media outlets are clearly exacerbating as much as possible.

Still the virus, according to the statistics on confirmed cases, I believe has between a 3-4% fatality rate which is significant enough to worry about. It’s absolutely not your every day flu. Unchecked the virus can easily infect millions of Americans and it would, with certainty, overwhelm our hospitals.

With millions and millions getting sick, hundreds of thousands could die in this country. Fortunately measures have been taken that will slow the spread.

I feel that without the stringent measures being taken, hospitals would be completely overrun, many will die and the economy will still experience a huge blow.

Rather now that we are trending in the direction of locking down, our economy is tanking dramatically and fast. It’s scary to witness, and more frightening than the virus itself.

It’s a brutal situation we are faced with and there will be a lot of suffering any direction we go.

I love Ron but I believe he is at least half wrong on his assessment of the situation. He’s downplaying it and I think not acknowledging how devastating this could be to our medical institutions.

 

[kpitcher]

Do we need another image of the curve? With the infection rate and numbers of 19%+ requiring hospitalization we simply don't have the resources to treat that many patients. Slowing the spread so everyone doesn't get hit at once is the only solution to not have needless deaths. It does feel almost surreal with everything closing down, no one immediately sick, but know it's coming. Very much an "On the beach" style moment.

 

[69360]

As I said originally, it's both more deadly and more virulent than the flu.

Covid-19 appears to have a similar mortality rate and R0 to the Spanish Flu.

That infected about a third of the global population, killing 2-3% of those infected.

In today's term, for the US, that would mean about 2.5 million deaths (45x more than your figure for the flu).

That's why people are freaking out for this particular virus.

It's not hysteria.

...not to say there isn't some hysteria, but the underlying problem is real.

I don't think that is correct. Without testing the entire US population, you have no idea what the real infection rate would be. Without an accurate number of infections you can't conclude a mortality rate.

We are seeing no reports this is any more transmissible than the common seasonal flu. But for arguments sake lets say it is twice as bad. So we see 100 million get sick for a few days instead of the normal seasonal 50 million. We see 100,000 deaths instead of the normal 50,000.

While regrettable and with sympathy to the families of the deceased, this is just not enough to destroy our economy and erode our civil liberties for. Statistically and looking at the big picture we are going to cause more damage to society with this hysteria than the virus does.

We simply aren't advanced on this planet to prevent all death. 25,000 a day still die from starvation in the world and life goes on with very little care from the average person. 100 people a day in the US die in car crashes with not much attention.

 

[euphemia]

Trust in a benevolent Creator is a powerful thing when the world around us is in turmoil.

 

[Danke]

I also haven't posted here in a long time and am back here for the same reason as you 69360.

The world is going fucking crazy.

WTF do we do next?

stay away from beer and convenient store hot dogs.

 

[oyarde]

stay away from beer and convenient store hot dogs.

I say get 'em while you can but use a designated driver.

 

[ChiefJustice]

I don't think that is correct. Without testing the entire US population, you have no idea what the real infection rate would be. Without an accurate number of infections you can't conclude a mortality rate.

We are seeing no reports this is any more transmissible than the common seasonal flu. But for arguments sake lets say it is twice as bad. So we see 100 million get sick for a few days instead of the normal seasonal 50 million. We see 100,000 deaths instead of the normal 50,000.

While regrettable and with sympathy to the families of the deceased, this is just not enough to destroy our economy and erode our civil liberties for. Statistically and looking at the big picture we are going to cause more damage to society with this hysteria than the virus does.

We simply aren't advanced on this planet to prevent all death. 25,000 a day still die from starvation in the world and life goes on with very little care from the average person. 100 people a day in the US die in car crashes with not much attention.

I see your point and have had similar thoughts but at the same time if the infection has like a 10-15% chance of killing my parents and other older relatives, and harming other at-risk friends of mine...weigh that against the economy and I know what I’d choose.

 

[69360]

I see your point and have had similar thoughts but at the same time if the infection has like a 10-15% chance of killing my parents and other older relatives, and harming other at-risk friends of mine...weigh that against the economy and I know what I’d choose.

Think about this. If we really tank the economy and society falls apart from this hysteria or we just have a great depression type event, how many lives will be lost? I think more than a virus would kill. I have hope this will pass and people will come to their senses within a few weeks.

“They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety.” – Benjamin Franklin

I found my old Ron Paul 2012 shirt and wore it to work today. That was my statement on all this. I felt a little better.

 

[jmdrake]

Yes, but that's after China basically shut down the entire country.

What would have happened had they not done that?

A 3% mortality rate, with half the population getting infected, is 45 million people.

In China the mortality rate is 4.0%. In Italy it is 8.3%. In the U.S.A. it is 1.5%. Worldwide it is 4.1%. Despite all of the criticism of the American healthcare system and Donald Trump, we are doing much better than the rest of the countries that have significant numbers of infections.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

 

[69360]

In China the mortality rate is 4.0%. In Italy it is 8.3%. In the U.S.A. it is 1.5%. Worldwide it is 4.1%. Despite all of the criticism of the American healthcare system and Donald Trump, we are doing much better than the rest of the countries that have significant numbers of infections.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

It's very important to note that this mortality rate is based on deaths v. cases confirmed by testing. Without testing the entire population we have no idea of the number of infected with no symptoms or mild self medicated symptoms not requiring medical care. The actual mortality rate could be below 0%.

 

[ChiefJustice]

Think about this. If we really tank the economy and society falls apart from this hysteria or we just have a great depression type event, how many lives will be lost? I think more than a virus would kill. I have hope this will pass and people will come to their senses within a few weeks.

“They who can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety.” – Benjamin Franklin

I found my old Ron Paul 2012 shirt and wore it to work today. That was my statement on all this. I felt a little better.

I don’t disagree with you. It’s just that when my family’s health enters the equation I more easily shed some of my pragmatic views on the situation.

The economy is at risk of entering another Great Depression, with or without a national shutdown. It’s just happening faster.

 

[jmdrake]

It's very important to note that this mortality rate is based on deaths v. cases confirmed by testing. Without testing the entire population we have no idea of the number of infected with no symptoms or mild self medicated symptoms not requiring medical care. The actual mortality rate could be below 0%.

It can't get below 0% because that would be a negative mortality rate where the virus was bringing people back to life. But yes, it could be between 0% and 1%. And that's basically what Trump was saying about his "hunch" on Sean Hannity weeks ago and everyone jumped his case about it. The real question people should be asking is why are the socialist countries of western Europe and straight up Communist China having much higher mortality rates if marital law and "free healthcare for all" is the answer to the corona virus?

 

[ChiefJustice]

You can't use the confirmed cases v. deaths for morbidity numbers because you don't know how many people are infected but not symptomatic or just had typical flu like symptoms and self medicated etc.

This is a very good point.

 

[Anti Globalist]

People who are falling for this mass hysteria are crazy.

 

[r3volution 3.0]

In China the mortality rate is 4.0%. In Italy it is 8.3%. In the U.S.A. it is 1.5%. Worldwide it is 4.1%. Despite all of the criticism of the American healthcare system and Donald Trump, we are doing much better than the rest of the countries that have significant numbers of infections.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

The period from infection to death is quite long.

I think we'll see the death rate rise in the US and other countries where most of the infections are very recent.