Is Ron Paul The Inevitable Candidate?

[jay_dub]

I dunno...maybe it's wishful thinking. Or....maybe not.

I've been waiting for a game changer to propel Dr. Paul to the nomination. It's been looking like we needed a Hail Mary pass to get this done. That hasn't happened but we have seen some pretty nifty long yardage plays that just might do the trick.

To begin with the most current, Karl Rove has come out and said that Romney would lose by over 120 electoral votes as things stand now. This has got to get the attention of the GOP and make them wonder if they're not backing the wrong horse. Dr. Paul has consistently shown to have strong support among Indys and let's not forget the Blue Republicans for Ron Paul. This alone could help immensely in swing states. If only the GOP would get behind the one man that actually could beat Obama in November.....

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Veteran GOP political strategist Karl Rove says Mitt Romney is facing very tough electoral math in his presidential bid -- so dire that President Obama would likely win re-election if voters were going to the polls this week.

The math is simple and indisputable, says Rove, though he warns that the situtation is highly fluid.

The next president needs 270 Electoral College votes to win.

There are currently 18 states (220 electoral votes) where Obama has a solid lead and 15 states (93 votes) that are solidly in Romney's column.

There are six states -- crucial battleground states -- with a combined 82 electoral vtes that are “toss-(*)-ups” (IA, FL, MO, NC, SC, VA).

Five more states -- MI, NH, NV, OH, PA -- with a combined 64 EC votes are "leaning" toward Obama.

Six other states -- AZ, GA, KY, SD, TN, TX -- with a combined 79 EC votes “lean” Romney.

Simply put, that means there are 17 states for a total of 225 Electoral College votes up for grabs.

So if the election were held today, 284 electoral votes are safely Obama's, according to Rove. Romney has 157 safe or leaning votes.

"These projections will change as more polls are conducted in the coming weeks," Rove warns. The situation is extremely fluid.

Rove was considered one of the best prognosticators during the 2008 election when he called 48 states correctly, only getting Indiana and North Carolina wrong.

http://www.newsmax.com/Politics/Rove-prediction-Obama-election/2012/04/26/id/437244
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Then we have the outstanding results coming in from the various states regarding delegate selection. No need to expand on that....we all know this is great news.

Finally, there are the Christian leaders that just won't back Romney. One has gone so far as to say that we need to make sure a Christian is elected even it means voting third party. Regardless of how some view this, this is undoubtedly a large voting bloc that does not support Mitt Romney. As in the following:

Yesterday, Pastor Steven Andrew of USA Christian Ministries announced his support of the congressman, calling for a day of prayer and fasting. Andrew released a statement saying that, “After Santorum, Ron Paul is the most God-fearing Presidential candidate [and] the Republican party should endorse him.” Andrew said that “If Republicans don’t give a Christian candidate, Christians should look elsewhere – even to a third party.”

Taken together, these things should, by any logic, give the GOP pause to seriously consider Dr. Paul as their nominee. Unless, of course, they are comfortable with losing by a wide margin and possibly suffering mass defeats in Congressional races along with that loss. This goes beyond ideology and is simply real politics. Like it or not, GOP, Ron Paul might just be the savior of the Party.

 

[CaptUSA]

Unless, of course, they are comfortable with losing by a wide margin and possibly suffering mass defeats in Congressional races along with that loss.

I think there are many in the party that are perfectly comfortable with that as long as it doesn't upset the status quo. To them, losses in their party just mean more fund raising for the next election.

 

[sailingaway]

I sure hope you are right!

 

[jay_dub]

I think there are many in the party that are perfectly comfortable with that as long as it doesn't upset the status quo. To them, losses in their party just mean more fund raising for the next election.

They may be comfortable with a loss for Romney, but Congressional losses would be unacceptable. If the GOP loses the Presidential election, they need Congressional power to put the brakes on Obama.

I can't help but think that this isn't lost on the Party regulars and is likely making for some lively private discussions. Times like these are when I would love to be a fly on the wall.

 

[CaptUSA]

If the GOP loses the Presidential election, they need Congressional power to put the brakes on Obama.

Or they can let Obama go unfettered and reap the benefits of his over-reach like they did in 2010.

It's a lot easier to complain about the guy in power than it is to be the guy in power. The more Obama abuses his power, the more GOP fundraising will skyrocket.

 

[sailingaway]

They may be comfortable with a loss for Romney, but Congressional losses would be unacceptable. If the GOP loses the Presidential election, they need Congressional power to put the brakes on Obama.

I can't help but think that this isn't lost on the Party regulars and is likely making for some lively private discussions. Times like these are when I would love to be a fly on the wall.

that is absolutely true. OUR folks taking over parties can help by making it clear they will carry down ballot literature when they canvas etc...

 

[flynn]

The tea party has done major surgery to the GOP already in term of congress, meaning it is possible to take over the GOP from within. In my opinion, there would be a rise of third party that caters for democrats and independents who aren't willing to support the republicans due to foreign policy issues and want to vote for someone else.

 

[jbauer]

I think they see what we see, IE, the economy and austaerity are coming here. They'd rather not be the captain of the Titanic when we hit the iceberg

I think there are many in the party that are perfectly comfortable with that as long as it doesn't upset the status quo. To them, losses in their party just mean more fund raising for the next election.

 

[CaptUSA]

I think they see what we see, IE, the economy and austaerity are coming here. They'd rather not be the captain of the Titanic when we hit the iceberg

Yep, they're more concerned about the blame instead of trying to find a captain that has great vision and knows how to navigate the waters.

 

[ctiger2]

The short answer is YES HE IS.

It will become apparent to all within a couple months. Should be really fun to watch it play out.

 

[jemuf]

I think they see what we see, IE, the economy and austaerity are coming here. They'd rather not be the captain of the Titanic when we hit the iceberg

Interesting statement. I've never thought of that before. There's a large part of me that thinks that the GOP is trying to lose, but I wasn't really sure why.

Oh, one more thing...inevitable candidate? Ron Paul is already a candidate, hard-pipe-hittin one at that. Inevitable nominee? Now there's an idea we need to start promoting.

 

[J_White]

the hacks who have taken over the GOP, do not care if the GOP loses the election.
when will the republican voters understand this ?

 

[ChristopherShelley]

I believe he is. But I also believe I will be a successful musician one day. I have to MAKE that happen.

 

[seriousvassal]

It's nice to think about, but it's not going to happen. The movement needs more time. RAND PAUL 2016!

 

[jay_dub]

Interesting statement. I've never thought of that before. There's a large part of me that thinks that the GOP is trying to lose, but I wasn't really sure why.

Oh, one more thing...inevitable candidate? Ron Paul is already a candidate, hard-pipe-hittin one at that. Inevitable nominee? Now there's an idea we need to start promoting.

Yeah....I meant nominee, not candidate. Any mod wanna edit the title?

 

[WilliamC]

Nothing is inevitable except death and taxes.

When Ron Paul is elected only death will remain to be defeated.

Think about it...

 

[Hyperion]

I think the geographical problem for the Republicans in the OP is greatly exaggerated. It'll be a cold day in hell before Obama wins in some of those places being metioned as competitive(TN,KY,SC,GA,AZ,TX,SD. If he couldn't in 2008, he isn't in 2012.)

With that said, Romney-Obama has to be the worst presidential election ever. The American people absolutely deserve such a contest since they've been in a trance for such a long time. An extremely weak challenger and a weak incumbent who has continued the destruction of the country and constitution. Wow. Fleeing the country has never looked better.

It'd be epic if Ron somehow wins at the convention.

 

[WilliamC]

I think the geographical problem in the OP is greatly exaggerated. It'll be a cold day in hell before Obama wins in some of those places. If he couldn't in 2008, he isn't in 2012.

Maybe, but Rove is no friend of Obama's. Romney will not be able to pull any of Obama's base away from him, that is a given. Romney doesn't excite the Republican base and isn't likely to if he wins the nomination and veers left in his politics to attract Independents, he's Mr. Etch-a-Sketch remember? and Romney doesn't have a core group of enthusiastic supporters anyway while Obama still does.

Obama may very well defeat Romney worse than he did McCain.

 

[jay_dub]

It's nice to think about, but it's not going to happen. The movement needs more time. RAND PAUL 2016!

Ron Paul is running for POTUS. Rand Paul is a Senator from Kentucky with just over a year's experience.

Of the things I mentioned in the OP, no one thing is enough to gain momentum. However, all these factors combined may be. A little further nudge may get us to the tipping point of inevitability. Really, why be content to wait 4 years when things are working in our favor now?

 

[No Free Beer]

If Romney gets the nom, I have the following:

Obama: 320
Romney: 218

(I even gave Romney Ohio)

Check your numbers:

http://projects.washingtonpost.com/2008/pick-your-president/