Is Credit Card Debt an expansion of the Money Supply?

It is merely the physical manifestation of a deposit at the Federal Reserve. I mean let's go through the accounting entries when the Fed creates money on the open market.

Deposit of....what?

I do.

Treasury creates T-bill for $1 billion.
FED buys T-bill for $1 billion.

FED either prints or types on a computer $1 billion in digits for the Treasury.

The government spends it.

It is money.

Just because the FED manufactures money does not make it "not" money.

That would be like saying just because a miner mines gold does not make it gold.
 
Exactly... Now for the most part defaults don't take down banks because they have reserves, the ability to borrow from other banks and the ability to be bailed out indirectly and directly from the Fed. As long as the bank is still standing...the defaulted loan will still cause deflation though as the bank will curb the amount of demand deposits the bank can make to rebalance their reserves and equity ratios.

There is no question that demand deposits are a different type of money than base money...but claim slips are technically money as they are stores of values accepted as a means of exchange. Certainly they can create inflation and deflation just like base money can.

Indeed it always can and always will (without government bailouts be broken). Part of the problem is the consumer. We're dumb enough to accept demand deposits as payment...so we MAKE it money. Most have no idea that demand deposits are fractionally backed so to the public's credit part of this horrible bank money mistake we find ourselves in is not entirely due to our ignorance but partly to the fraud of private banks and the federal reserve
.

This is the heart of the matter IMO. People's take actions as IF the demand deposits were base money. This is the cause of the rising prices. At least in theory as I understand it.

As to studies of inflation vs demand deposits, I'm not familiar with any and haven't looked into that matter.
 
Those are the accounting entries for the monetary base...of which the fed notes are but a component. It is somewhat semantics...but IMO it is accurate to call greenbacks mere reminders of what the Fed holds as a record on their balance sheet if that makes sense.

Do not get hung up by the fact FRBN can be computer digits or little pieces of paper - they are both FRBN.

The measure of money is that it appears - always- as an asset on any book.

Your scenario, you have an error:
Follow the accounting:

The fed buys say 10m in t-bills from a primary dealer. They in turn credit the primary dealer's account at the Fed with 100k.

So the fed balance sheet looks like, in fact, this

liabilities: 0
assets: x + 10m in tbills

The Fed, never, never, never, has monetary liabilities. It has the power to monetize anything. It never, in its history, has had any monetary liabilities... not ... a single...one. It cannot, since it has the power to manufacture money.
 
This is the heart of the matter IMO. People's take actions as IF the demand deposits were base money. This is the cause of the rising prices. At least in theory as I understand it.

I agree, the People believe that is money. But believing an illusion does not make it real.

No matter what, they cannot withdraw their deposit greater then the M0. An attempt to do so creates a systemic bank run - which would be impossible if, in fact, demand deposits was money.

As to studies of inflation vs demand deposits, I'm not familiar with any and haven't looked into that matter.

There has been inflation, of course - as the M0 has steadily increased.

However, if the claim be true, that the fractional reserve system mechanics which creates a demand deposits up to 9x the M0, we should see a comparable inflation rate to that 9x the M0.

What we see is an inflation rate comparable only to the M0.

The reason I posit is that the economy transact with M0 - real money. Therefore, the maximum amount of actual transaction in play can never exceed M0 - and that is the measure of money in the economy - that is, how much concurrent transaction.

Now, because of demand deposit and computer digits - the rate of transactions is massively faster. Instead of say a day to carry cash between withdrawal, purchase and redeposit, it is now a microsecond.

Does this increase the economic capacity? Sure.

But does it decrease the demand for money? I say No.

Without a decrease in the demand for money (that is, -supply/demand law - either by an oversupply of money or reduced desire to hold money) inflation does not come to play.
 
Deposit of....what?
Yes...the terminology the Fed uses is confusing...but they do award deposits to banks. It used to be these deposits were fractionally backed by gold but now they are mostly backed by t-bills.

Treasury creates T-bill for $1 billion.
FED buys T-bill for $1 billion.

FED either prints or types on a computer $1 billion in digits for the Treasury.

The government spends it.
It should be noted that it would be quite rare for the Fed to directly purchase t-bills from the Fed. If they did they would cut out the middleman in the primary dealers and they wouldn't get as many profits. And since bank profits are paramount, the Fed will probably never deal directly with the treasury regarding t-bills because it is too efficient. Now the treasury department is like a bank in that it has a large 'deposit' at the Fed...which is a 'liability' to the Fed. But the primary way they get the account credited is through bond sales and tax receipts.

It is money.

Just because the FED manufactures money does not make it "not" money.

That would be like saying just because a miner mines gold does not make it gold.
We agree...the monetary base created by government is money. My point is just that M1 or bank money or checking accounts...is also money. You seemed to disagree because you said this was merely accounting entrees...which in a sense was quite correct. But then I countered that the MB can be just accounting entries as well. We can quibble semantics I suppose...
 
This is the heart of the matter IMO. People's take actions as IF the demand deposits were base money. This is the cause of the rising prices. At least in theory as I understand it.
I think it is more than that. Demand deposits are money through our perception. They are a store of our value. If all our demand deposits were to vanish and only the reserves backing them remained...we would have lost a 'lot of money'.

As to studies of inflation vs demand deposits, I'm not familiar with any and haven't looked into that matter.
The creation of checking accounts absolutely and without a doubt causes inflation. Some argue this is not the case because a bank only uses bank money to buy loans...and therefore they cancel each other. Many also make the same argument that the Fed because it buys t-bills off of the open market when it creates MB...that it doesn't create inflation. Both arguments are false. Whenever you create short term debt to backup long term debt, you are creating money and inflation. Be it at the Fed in the open market or at a private bank when they're financing a mortgage (or nowadays a private equity takeover which will be the new bubble).

The other quirk to to think about is that M1 is somewhat antiquated. You also have to consider 'near' demand deposits. eg Demand deposits that bear interest and have short maturities. If you view a checking account as merely a deposit that yields a microscopic amount of interest and has a microscopic maturity and that it constantly rolls over...you appreciate that there is little difference between demand deposits and their close cousins. This is why the Feds and the financial markets keep track of higher aggregates like M2 and M3 besides just M1 and MB. Because M1 is much more regulated by the Feds...banks have shifted a lot of money from M1 into M2 and M3 which explains why as M1 has recently crashed...we haven't had deflation (M2 and M3 have been still growing sharply).
 
Do not get hung up by the fact FRBN can be computer digits or little pieces of paper - they are both FRBN.
In all my reading I've never heard of the MB be referred to as FRBN. Correct term should be 'monetary base' and not Federal Reserve Bank Notes...as they are different...but I won't push the issue after this.

The fed buys say 10m in t-bills from a primary dealer. They in turn credit the primary dealer's account at the Fed with 100k.

So the fed balance sheet looks like, in fact, this

liabilities: 0
assets: x + 10m in tbills
I did make an error with 100k...should have been 10k. Was late and I was tired :P . However, your accounting is incorrect. The Fed absolutely increases their liability (specifically deposit liability from citigroup) when they purchase a t-bill. This is also basic accounting. You can not increase an asset without increasing either a corresponding liability or equity.

The Fed, never, never, never, has monetary liabilities. It has the power to monetize anything. It never, in its history, has had any monetary liabilities... not ... a single...one. It cannot, since it has the power to manufacture money.
This is quite untrue. In fact the Fed publishes their balance sheet and you can check this out for yourself. Go to:

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h41/current/

And scroll down to ''8. Consolidated Statement of Condition of All Federal Reserve Banks". That's the Fed's balance sheet. On here you can clearly see that federal reserve bank notes are about a trillion dollar liability and deposits at the Fed are about a 1.6 trillion dollar liability. You can also see there is about a 11 billion in gold a holdover from when the dollar was backed by gold. The gold was the asset to the fed (as well as t-bills). Then the gold and the t-bills backed up their deposit liabilities. Now since we are off of the gold standard...really it is mostly t-bills that backs deposits at the Fed.
 
There has been inflation, of course - as the M0 has steadily increased.

However, if the claim be true, that the fractional reserve system mechanics which creates a demand deposits up to 9x the M0, we should see a comparable inflation rate to that 9x the M0.

What we see is an inflation rate comparable only to the M0.
Couple of points to make.

M0 is not an accurate measure of money...it is a subset of MB or the monetary base. It would have been more logical for the US government to equate M0 with MB but unfortunately this is not the case.

You can see the history of MB at shadow stats (along with other aggregates) here:

http://www.shadowstats.com/charts/monetary-base-money-supply

And here is a nice measure of inflation historically:

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/inflation-charts

If you're theory that bank money wasn't money...or more importantly it did not have the affect of the money (like inflation) then in 2008 when the MB spiked to unprecedented levels (bottom right graph of the first link) we should have seen more than a 10% spike in inflation. Indeed if you compare the charts...the inflation graphs (using the pre-1980 measure which is more honest) much more closely corresponds with the Bank money aggregates (M1, M2, and M3) than it does with MB.

Certainly creating more of the monetary base will probably create more inflation. But the biggest reason is because it further enables banks to create more money on their end.

Other thing to consider is...there are other causes of inflation. Crop failures, over-population, immigration, monopolies, redemptions of the dollar from being a reserve currency, competition with other currencies and more are all causes. You can largely look at the supply of money but it is not the whole story.
 
rpwi, what's the difference between MB and M0? I always thought they were both just the sum of all FRNs + coins + electronic deposits at the Fed that can be exchanged for FRNs or coins.
 
Yes...the terminology the Fed uses is confusing...but they do award deposits to banks. It used to be these deposits were fractionally backed by gold but now they are mostly backed by t-bills.

"Used to" is 80 years ago ... so its not relevant at all today.

They are not backed by T-bills.

A Treasury note is debt .... it is used for the government to GET money, not to BACK money.

You do not make an IOU, get money for it, then claim your IOU 'backs' the money you just got.

It should be noted that it would be quite rare for the Fed to directly purchase t-bills from the Fed. If they did they would cut out the middleman in the primary dealers and they wouldn't get as many profits.

Possible true.

The reason they do the charade is to mask the raw creation of money by using the middle man to give credibility to it.

My point is just that M1 or bank money or checking accounts...is also money.

My argument is:
it is absolutely not money.

It is a debt and liability; money is never a debt nor a liability, no matter who holds it.

Demand deposits create an obligation on a party to the benefit of another; money never obligates anyone nor grants a benefit to someone other than the holder of money.

My point is:
- if you assign the cause/effect of money to something that is not money, you will build crackpot theories and crackpot explanations for economic effects which will lead you to make bizarre claims (paying off debt shrinks money supply) and proclaim bizarre policies which, in the end, will undermine the marketplace.
 
If you're theory that bank money wasn't money...or more importantly it did not have the affect of the money (like inflation) then in 2008 when the MB spiked to unprecedented levels (bottom right graph of the first link) we should have seen more than a 10% spike in inflation.

No.

This is the reason why:
fredgraph.png

ed; whoops, forgot the graph

The money has NOT been added to the economy, nor loaned.
It sits in FED.

Thus, printing a qazzilion dollars by the FED, but kept in the FED vault is exactly the same effect as the FED not printing a gazzilion dollars.

Other thing to consider is...there are other causes of inflation. Crop failures, over-population, immigration, monopolies

Never.

Crop failures spike prices in CROPS, not systemic across the market.
Supply and demand changes in commodities other than money does not cause inflation.

It creates supply and demand issues in that commodity and adjacent products - nothing more.

A shortage of Ferraris - with their subsequent rise in price - is not "inflation".

redemptions of the dollar from being a reserve currency

Huh?

How does spending a dollar cause inflation?
competition with other currencies

This is true.

Money is an economic good, and obeys all the laws of economics -no more and no less- as all other economic goods.

The Law of Supply and Demand effects money.
Competition affects demand.
Therefore, competitive currency will affect the demand curve of money.

Huh You can largely look at the supply of money but it is not the whole story.

All of your other "causation" are not relevant at all to inflation/deflation.

But as I pointed out above, in this post and previous posts, the supply/demand law commands money, like it does all economic goods.

Yes, supply changes impact money, thus inflation and deflation.

And, as we agree here, demand changes also impacts money, thus inflation and deflation.
 
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I don't value FRBN's directly -- I only value what I can exchange them for, and only to that extent. However, in and of themselves, they have no direct value to me.
Bull.

If I held up briefcase and said "This briefcase is worth $1 million" you laugh ... until I said, it had a million bucks in it. Then you would stop laughing.

You aren't "calculating" oooo..look at all the goodies I can buy with a million --- you are looking at it exactly like you would look at a 500oz of gold

Yeah? How would you feel if I held up a briefcase full of Weimar Republic Deutschmarks? All large denominations, too (they're not rare, you can get a briefcase full of them in Germany still).

You missed the point completely (deliberately?). I didn't claim that I didn't value FRBN's. I said I didn't value them directly. I value apples directly. But if I'm an apple farmer or food merchant I could also value them indirectly - for what I could exchange them for (for things I actually do value directly).

If I was in Vegas and found an abandoned briefcase filled with black chips from Harrah's, I'd be screaming for joy. But that doesn't mean I have a black chip fetish. It means I can go cash them OUT for FRBN's, which I can then go "cash out" for the things I actually do directly value.

Gambling chips and FRBN's ONLY have indirect exchange value -- which is temporal, fleeting, and constantly eroding. Without that RIGHT NOW exchange value (e.g., they eventually become like Continentals - worthless) they are essentially valueless.

Gold, on the other hand, has DIRECT value, and has throughout most of human civilization throughout recorded history. I own (and directly value) some gold that isn't money. I have right now three dental crowns made of white gold in my mouth that I value - for its utility. I use other gold I have in a semiconductor sputtering process, and I have a friend who uses gold to create leads from integrated circuit chip substrates in ceramic packages he creates.

So unlike Harrah's black chips and the Fed's FRBN's, which ONLY have indirect exchange value, and only in the moment, gold has both direct value and indirect exchange value.
 
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This is quite incorrect. A bank regularly creates inflation though it's creation of deposits. An analogy to illustrate.

Say the money supply was 1000 pounds of gold in a local economy. Instead of the people trading gold between each other...they decide to deposit it with a gold smith who lets them trade claim slips as well. Goldsmith notices that these claim slips are not being redeemed regularly...so with a sneaky move goes out and loans some it. Because he has created more gold slips than there is gold he has created inflation. Even though he has create a corresponding amount of debt.

Couple different ways to conceptional this. When you deposit money at a bank and get a checking account, you are in reality getting an interest bearing investment that has an infinitely small interest rate and an infinitely quick maturity. So one can say anytime you backup long term assets with short term debt you are creating money.

Yes, but banks can't do this unless they are getting loans from the fed or they are counterfeiting. In your example the gold smith is counterfeiting whatever the notes he is giving out. Do really believe the banks are doing the same?
 
Yeah? How would you feel if I held up a briefcase full of Weimar Republic Deutschmarks? All large denominations, too (they're not rare, you can get a briefcase full of them in Germany still).

Exactly.
You do not value them - and if you took a ton of gold to Fijians, they'd throw it in the garbage.

That's the point - value is imputed.

. I said I didn't value them directly.

And you missed my point.

I do not care about your reasons why you do or do not or how you value anything - that is all up to you.

But the way YOU do it has no merit on anyone else or how they do it.

Gold has only indirect exchange value - you can't eat a bar of gold, nor use it to fuel your car. You have to exchange it for the thing you do eat and gasoline.

Same as FRBN -no different.
 
Exactly.
You do not value them - and if you took a ton of gold to Fijians, they'd throw it in the garbage.

That's the point - value is imputed.



And you missed my point.

I do not care about your reasons why you do or do not or how you value anything - that is all up to you.

But the way YOU do it has no merit on anyone else or how they do it.

Gold has only indirect exchange value - you can't eat a bar of gold, nor use it to fuel your car. You have to exchange it for the thing you do eat and gasoline.

Same as FRBN -no different.

I don't think I agree with this. Gold has some direct economic uses. Ornamental, dental, semiconductor etc.
FRNs have no real direct uses.
 
rpwi, what's the difference between MB and M0? I always thought they were both just the sum of all FRNs + coins + electronic deposits at the Fed that can be exchanged for FRNs or coins.
Depends on the country...in England M0 and MB are the same (which is more logical). In the US, the conventional wisdom is to refer to MB as merely being how much cash and coin circulates outside of the banking system. Since obviously cash that is held by a bank...or fed deposits held by the bank...are part of the economy and base money supply...M0 is not a super important measure. MB is the best measure of direct government money because it includes all cash, coin and deposits at the Fed.
 
They are not backed by T-bills.

A Treasury note is debt .... it is used for the government to GET money, not to BACK money.

You do not make an IOU, get money for it, then claim your IOU 'backs' the money you just got.
Well...t-bills 'back' the monetary base in more of an indirect way. Certainly the Fed doesn't practice direct redemptions of dollars for t-bills...but in their accounting entries they absolutely back dollars with t-bills (most of the time). Do they need to do this? No. Some of this is accounting orthodoxy. They could just fabricate another asset and use that to balance the dollar liability (say the asset of 'Federal Reserve Brownie Points' or 'good will'). I personally think it is quite foolish of the Fed to almost exclusively purchase t-bills and not just because the yields are pathetic... IMO direct rebates to the treasury would probably be the most efficient use of the money. Now the Fed is somewhat constrained by these accounting rules...but they've been playing games with 'swaps' to get around them lately. All very evil.

The reason they do the charade is to mask the raw creation of money by using the middle man to give credibility to it.
The Fed does indeed do a lot of masking. From 2008 to present, they've taken the MB from about 1 trillion to 2.6 trillion. Does that mean the Fed merely created 1.6 trillion? Noooo.... They created a LOT more...but then destroyed a lot more so only the net increase was 1.6 trillion. Since each deal from the Fed incurs heavy transaction fees this means the public is getting fleeced out of t-bill interest that would normally go to reduce the deficit. This is extremely evil and no politicians are talking about. You can for example read about some of the churning the Fed and the horribly corrupt open market works at:

http://wps.pearsoncustom.com/pcp_miller_econtoday_13/71/18328/4692159.cw/content/index.html

My argument is:
it is absolutely not money.

It is a debt and liability;
It is both. Why is this not possible? Anything can be money... Baseball cards...sea-shells... So could one say corporate bonds be used as money? One could pay for their groceries with a corporate bond for IBM perhaps? If this is possible why would it be impossible for checking accounts to be money?

My point is:
- if you assign the cause/effect of money to something that is not money, you will build crackpot theories and crackpot explanations for economic effects which will lead you to make bizarre claims (paying off debt shrinks money supply) and proclaim bizarre policies which, in the end, will undermine the marketplace.
It's not a crackpot theory. Even orthodox economics agrees with anti-fractional bankers in regards to the fundamentals of how bank money works. Both agree that the measure of money needs to include bank money (almost all econ texts discuss M1, M2 and M3. Both agree that bank money can create inflation...and while not mentioned as much...most agree that repaying debts does wind down the money supply. I'm sure if you asked any top Federal Reserve official or treasury official they would actually agree on all these points.
 
No.

This is the reason why:
fredgraph.png

ed; whoops, forgot the graph

The money has NOT been added to the economy, nor loaned.
It sits in FED.

Thus, printing a qazzilion dollars by the FED, but kept in the FED vault is exactly the same effect as the FED not printing a gazzilion dollars.
Not true. The measure of MB is all cash in circulation + all cash in private bank vaults + all coinage + all private bank deposits at the Federal Reserve. Pretty much all of MB is in the economy. If the Federal Reserve had been holding MB in their vaults...it would not have been counted as MB. Logically it makes no sense that the Fed would create a lot of MB and then do nothing with it. Are you saying they printed a trillion plus in dollar bills and just sat on it? That's clearly not the case. They mostly created liabilities (fed deposits) to purchase an assortment of assets from the private sector to bail it out. Again the reason why inflation didn't spike (it did go up more than experts are willing to admit) is because bank aggregates crashed. Once banks start relending at their normal money multipliers...we could see mega-inflation.

Never.

Crop failures spike prices in CROPS, not systemic across the market.
Not true. Money is only valuable for what it can buy...if there isn't that much stuff on the market to buy...then the value of money goes down. If people can't spend their money on crops...they'll spend their money on other things like say...fish. And the price of fish goes up. So indeed a crop failure would cause systemic inflation in an economy.

Supply and demand changes in commodities other than money does not cause inflation.
So if a blight wipes out 99% of the food supply in the world...you're saying their would be no inflation??

How does spending a dollar cause inflation?
The dollar is a reserve currency. It's a good deal. We send worthless pieces of paper to countries like latin American and they send us ore, ag products and real wealth. As long as these countries keep the dollars for internal transactions...we luck out. But there will come a day...when these countries will get fed up with the dollar and no longer are willing to use it as a local intermediary of exchange. They will send it back to the US. But they will get real wealth in exchange. We will send them say soybeans and machine parts...and they will send us worthless pieces of paper. This absolutely will create inflation...and probably mega-inflation at that.

But as I pointed out above, in this post and previous posts, the supply/demand law commands money, like it does all economic goods.
Yes and no. Money is not natural. Because it has the ability to satisfy legal tender laws it has a lot of artificial power and is somewhat exempt from the laws of supply and demand. Also the central banks around the world are constantly meddling with the monetary bases and bank aggregates...so none of this is natural and competitive.
 
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