My point is those projections seem to rely on the conventional form of campaigning, rather than taking a detailed approach like I mentioned. There is a great deal of attention paid to TV ads, newspaper ads, and other such things, but Romney spent millions in New Hampshire and Iowa, but got second in both states and actually got only about twice as much as us in Iowa, despite Paul not spending much there.
The conventional form of campaign is proving to be absolutely ineffective and campaigns that rely less on conventional advertising and more on organization or grassroots support are succeeding like with Huckabee and McCain, Huckabee especially. He focused on using the churches and religious communities to build up his support in Iowa and ultimately those are people who traditionally turnout.
Each state, however, demands a different strategy and not just focusing on different issues, but figuring out a different way of going about it. In New York, which is a large state and a winner-take-all primary, there's a need to run a statewide campaign. However, California, despite being larger, demands a district-by-district campaign because the bulk of the delegates are at district level.
There are 159 delegates at district level in California, and each district has three delegates, no matter how small the voter population. The vast majority of districts and thus delegates are in the urban, Democratic, areas where there are going to be less Republican voters. Focusing on organization and turnout is a much better strategy in California than trying to run a statewide campaign.
The same for other states with division by district. Ads in those cases should be tailor made for each district and put in newspapers or in some other limited focus to appeal more directly to potential voters.
Ultimately that demands less money than trying to run TV ads in the entire state. It's possible the campaign has some massive strategy which does take these things into account, but I doubt it. Most likely they're asking for $23 million in order to get a large advertising campaign going with TV ads, radio ads, and a lot of other statewide sort of strategies.