Iowa suggests Bernie Sanders has no special turnout magic

[Swordsmyth]

The Iowa Democratic Party's disastrous delay in reporting the results of the state's 2020 presidential caucuses has made analysis difficult, but there are a few things that can be gleaned from the partial results and entrance polling released so far. For Bernie Sanders, the data is a mixed bag.
First, it's clear that turnout was not unusual or high. Officials say it was about the same as 2016 and well below 2008 levels when Barack Obama defeated Hillary Clinton. First time caucus-goers made up only 35 percent of the vote this year according to the entrance polling, compared to 44 percent in 2016.
These facts are a real blow to Bernie Sanders' theory of electability. The campaign has stressed Sanders' supposedly unique ability to appeal to new voters, third-party voters, and infrequent voters. If that was true, we should have seen a big increase in the low-turnout caucuses, where even a small increase in total numbers would make a big difference. Sanders campaign had months to hyper focus his volunteer army on the state of Iowa so supporters could directly make the campaign's unique appeal to these groups, yet these gains seemingly failed to materialize.
As expected, given the generational divide in ideology among Democrats, Sanders did very well with young caucus-goers, handily winning in several college-town precincts. But again, youth turnout seems to have been only slightly higher than previous cycles.

More at: https://news.yahoo.com/iowa-suggests-bernie-sanders-no-231500608.html

 

[Zippyjuan]

Can't really judge overall voter turnout by looking at a caucus. Only people who can afford to spend several hours at a polling site (and are enthusiastic about a candidate) will show up. In a primary, you can vote quickly (depending on lines) and go home or back to work, feed the kids and get them off to bed (school night) or do other things. A caucus requires a large time commitment from participants.

 

[Swordsmyth]

Can't really judge overall voter turnout by looking at a caucus. Only people who can afford to spend several hours at a polling site (and are enthusiastic about a candidate) will show up. In a primary, you can vote quickly (depending on lines) and go home or back to work, feed the kids and get them off to bed (school night) or do other things. A caucus requires a large time commitment from participants.

LOL

Comparing the caucus turnout to the turnout to the same caucus in the past tells you something.

 

[RonZeplin]

Defeating Deep State Donnell - easier than falling off of a log

Iowa results suggest that Bernie's special magic may be sufficient to defeat Deep State Donnell in 2020.

 

[Swordsmyth]

Iowa results suggest that Bernie's special magic may be sufficient to defeat Deep State Donnell in 2020.

LOL

Trump broke the Iowa GOP record for turnout for an incumbent.

But do keep exposing yourself as a Bernie Bro.

 

[Zippyjuan]

LOL

Trump broke the Iowa GOP record for turnout for an incumbent.

But do keep exposing yourself as a Bernie Bro.

Some states are cancelling their Republican primaries or caucuses this year- not worth the expense.

170,000 participated in the Democratic caucus, 45,000 participated in the Republican caucuses. Only about 15% of registered voters participated.

Too many choices (or too few) can encourage low participation.

The Iowa caucuses, after all, are a bizarre system that requires people to show up at precinct sites, stay there for hours and hours, publicly argue and campaign for candidates, and eventually group up to select a nominee.

It’s a demanding system — one that’s particularly hard on people with disabilities, people who work night shifts, people who don’t have consistent transportation, and just about anyone else who can’t caucus for hours on a Monday night — and turnout has always been low overall. So while turnout numbers can be instructive, it’s important to remember they may not be a good gauge of Democratic enthusiasm across the country.

And as FiveThirtyEight editor-in-chief Nate Silver pointed out on Twitter, primary election turnout doesn’t usually correlate with general election turnout. So even if lower turnout in Iowa is representative of the Democratic primary as a whole, it might not be representative of the general election.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/2/4/21122359/iowa-democratic-caucuses-results-turnout