IOWA STATE/WHO-HD Poll 1-25

[Krugminator2]

Poll of likely Caucusgoers http://whotv.com/2016/01/25/clinton...usgoers-in-who-hd-iowa-state-university-poll/


Cruz-26
Trump-19
Carson13
Rubio-12
Paul-7
Jeb-4

 

[65fastback2+2]

This is ridiculous...and not realistic.

 

[thatpeculiarcat]

The new ISU/WHO-HD poll was compiled through phone interviews with 722 registered voters Jan. 5-22. The margin of error is approximately 3.5 percent for the full set of respondents. The poll included 356 Democrats, 283 Republicans and 83 Independents. More women (51.4 percent) than men (48.6 percent) participated in the phone interviews, which averaged 10 minutes. By age, 578 respondents (80.1 percent) were more than 50 years old; 116 (16.1 percent) were ages 30-50, and 28 (3.9 percent) were under 30.

Paul at 7% is rad considering this information.

 

[Joeinmo]

Hmmm...crap it's all old people polled, but hey does it count towards the debate?

 

[Foreigner]

Was about to make a thread myself so I'll just post the full results here:

Cruz - 25.8%
Trump - 18.9%
Carson - 13.4%
Rubio - 12.3%
Paul - 6.9%
Bush - 3.8%
Huckabee - 3.7%
Fiorina - 1.1%
Santorum - <1%
Christie - <1%
Kasich - <1%

The new ISU/WHO-HD poll was compiled through phone interviews with 722 registered voters Jan. 5-22. The margin of error is approximately 3.5 percent for the full set of respondents. The poll included 356 Democrats, 283 Republicans and 83 Independents. The poll was done via phone interviews, which averaged 10 minutes.

##############
## Demographics: ##
##############

50+ - 80.1%
30-50 - 16.1%
18-29 - 3.9%

Women - 51.4 %
Men - 48.6 %

-------------------

I don't think this is a poll that fox will include for their debate inclusion criteria, but nice to see a uptick none the less! I think 6.9% is pretty damn good considering previous polls and the demographics, with just 3.9% of respondents under the age of 30.

#Can'tHandleTheRandall

 

[derek4ever]

This is ridiculous...and not realistic.

Beats the msm polls! Should rand qualify for the debate and he wins it, anything can happen. I don't expect carson to be un double digits and rubio is weak.

 

[65fastback2+2]

Beats the msm polls! Should rand qualify for the debate and he wins it, anything can happen. I don't expect carson to be un double digits and rubio is weak.

im brain dead and retarded right now...thought 1-25 meant the age group LOL how dumb is that?

 

[Suzu]

im brain dead and retarded right now...thought 1-25 meant the age group LOL how dumb is that?

I still don't know what it means. I assumed it was a mis-spelling of the name of an interstate highway (I-25).

 

[adam220891]

January 25th, guys...

 

[r3volution 3.0]

##############
## Demographics: ##
##############

50+ - 80.1%
30-50 - 16.1%
18-29 - 3.9%

Women - 51.4 %
Men - 48.6 %

-------------------

Exit/entrance polls from 2012 IA caucus (source):

Age:
>50 = 60%
30-50 = 24%
<30 = 15%

Men 57%
Women 43%

So, relative actual voter demographics from 2012, this poll under-represents men and young people.

...the very groups Rand polls best with.

And yet he still got 7%, 5th place.

 

[Joeinmo]

Was about to make a thread myself so I'll just post the full results here:

Cruz - 25.8%
Trump - 18.9%
Carson - 13.4%
Rubio - 12.3%
Paul - 6.9%
Bush - 3.8%
Huckabee - 3.7%
Fiorina - 1.1%
Santorum - <1%
Christie - <1%
Kasich - <1%

The new ISU/WHO-HD poll was compiled through phone interviews with 722 registered voters Jan. 5-22. The margin of error is approximately 3.5 percent for the full set of respondents. The poll included 356 Democrats, 283 Republicans and 83 Independents. The poll was done via phone interviews, which averaged 10 minutes.

##############
## Demographics: ##
##############

50+ - 80.1%
30-50 - 16.1%
18-29 - 3.9%

Women - 51.4 %
Men - 48.6 %

-------------------

I don't think this is a poll that fox will include for their debate inclusion criteria, but nice to see a uptick none the less! I think 6.9% is pretty damn good considering previous polls and the demographics, with just 3.9% of respondents under the age of 30.

#Can'tHandleTheRandall

Interesting how long the poll took Jan 6th-25th, so many things change in that period of time, would be interesting to see how much of Rand's caucus goers were in the last 7 days of the poll

 

[Krugminator2]

I think this poll is pretty good news. It should solidify Rand's spot in the debate. It is likely a more accurate poll and it shows an uptick. Rand's team has put in the legwork of contacting people and organizing. It will be easier to get those people to show up if he is upticking in the polls and if he is in the debate.

And the people who say organization doesn't matter are imbeciles who haven't watched any of the last 2 or more elections. It isn't everything but it is the reason Ron Paul's best showing were always caucus states.

 

[Jackie Moon]

Paul at 7% is rad considering this information.

I don't think this is a poll that fox will include for their debate inclusion criteria, but nice to see a uptick none the less! I think 6.9% is pretty damn good considering previous polls and the demographics, with just 3.9% of respondents under the age of 30.

#Can'tHandleTheRandall

Yeah, only 28 out of the 722 total respondents were under 30. But only 283 out of the 722 were Republicans.

So we don't know how many of the 28 young people even answered on the Republican side. Likely 10 or fewer.

Even if we don't think this is an accurate representation of what will happen on Feb 1st (I don't), it still shows Rand moving up over time and in 5th place.

And even if they don't use it for debate criteria, it's still a result that Rand can use to demonstrate that he polls better than Bush and is in the top 5 and deserves to be on stage.

 

[eleganz]

But will that many democrats realistically vote in the GOP caucus??

I don't even know how long its been since we saw Rand above 6 in a "credible" poll but I'm glad we're showing signs of rising strength when it REALLY counts.

 

[supermario21]

Rand is basically a shoe-in barring an avalanche of polls coming out tomorrow am I right?

 

[Jackie Moon]

But will that many democrats realistically vote in the GOP caucus??

I don't even know how long its been since we saw Rand above 6 in a "credible" poll but I'm glad we're showing signs of rising strength when it REALLY counts.

They also polled for the Democratic race. So I'd assume most of the Democrats voted in that poll, the Republicans voted in this poll, and an unknown split of the 83 Independents in each.

 

[Foreigner]

Rand is basically a shoe-in barring an avalanche of polls coming out tomorrow am I right?

I'm not afraid of new polls, since Bush leads Rand in the oldest polls. (that would be replaced with new ones) So it doesn't cut it to just have Bush leading Rand in Iowa by a point or two, that would not change anything. (As far as I know) Besides, I think there is a good trend now.

 

[rp08orbust]

Those Trump/Kruhz results are quite the outlier, aren't they?

 

[hells_unicorn]

This is the first poll using phone calls where Rand has broken the 6% ceiling, this is definitely encouraging, especially given how low they are still sampling people under the age of 50.

 

[cornell]

Will this get picked up by RCP eventually or did it not use the right methodology to qualify?

Very promising last few days!