Iowa Robopoll Report 7/8/2011

rp08orbust

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Joined
Dec 20, 2007
Messages
4,803
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Previous Iowa Robopolls

Please see the thread from 6/30/2011 for an explanation of why I'm doing these robopolls.

6/30/2011
7/1/2011
7/6/2011
7/7/2011


Robopolling Account

See http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?302597-Robopoll-Project-Accounting for full accounting of the project.

Current Balances (as of 7/10/2011):

PayPay: 795.11
CallFire: 9.07
Dynamic Interactive: -4.22
NeoSpeech (Words): 251

I'll be doing a ton of robopolling on Monday!


Purchase Ron Paul Phone Lists

I am currently selling phone numbers of those who identified themselves as Ron Paul supporters in robopolls; see http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?302597-Robopoll-Project-Accounting for the current price per phone number. These phone numbers are excellent for calling to find Ron Paul supporters interested in attending the Ames straw poll on August 13.

If you want to purchase these phone numbers, you can make a payment directly to my PayPal account, r gear y iii at gmail dot com. If you describe it as a Personal Transfer from your PayPal balance or bank account, PayPal charges no fee (DO NOT describe it as payment for a good or service). Do not describe it as a purchase or else I could be charged an international transaction fee. If you cannot pay me without incurring a fee to you or myself, then consider using Amazon Payments to make the payment (my account email address is the same as my PayPal email address): https://payments.amazon.com/sdui/sdui/index.htm . In your PayPal or Amazon Payment note, please indicate your RPF username; otherwise I will use your initials in the public robopoll project accounting unless you request to be anonymous.

Each list of phone numbers you purchase is guaranteed to be unique from any other list I sell (i.e., the same phone number will not be sold more than once). Once I have conducted the robopolls necessary to fill your order, I will send the list of phone numbers as an attached Excel file to the email address of your choice (e.g., your own, Steve's, etc). You are welcome to share your lists with others.


Today's Samples

I am currently using a strategy that does not rely on the Iowa voter database. I cannot describe my polling sample publicly without giving my strategy away to competing campaigns.


The questions

My poll asks the following four questions:

Question 1
Good evening, this is Robert. I'd like to know which candidate you currently support for president in 2012. Please enter: One for Barack Obama. Two for Mitt Romney. Three for Michele Bachmann. Four for Tim Pawlenty. Five for Sarah Palin. Six for Rick Perry. Seven for Ron Paul. Or zero for other or undecided. Once again, please enter. One for Barack Obama. Two for Mitt Romney. Three for Michele Bachmann. Four for Tim Pawlenty. Five for Sarah Palin. Six for Rick Perry. Seven for Ron Paul. Or zero for other or undecided.

Question 2
Thank you. Next, please indicate your voter registration status in Iowa by entering: Zero if you are not registered to vote in Iowa. One for Republican. Two for Democrat. Or Three for Independent. Once again, please indicate your voter registration status in Iowa by entering: Zero if you are not registered to vote in Iowa. One for Republican. Two for Democrat. Or Three for Independent.

Question 3
Thank you. Next, please indicate your age by entering: One if you are 29 or younger. Two if you are between 30 and 44. Three if you are between 45 and 59. Or Four if you are 60 or older. Once again, please indicate your age by entering: One if you are 29 or younger. Two if you are between 30 and 44. Three if you are between 45 and 59. Or Four if you are 60 or older.

Question 4
Next, please indicate your gender by entering: One for male. Or two for female. Once again, please indicate your gender by entering: One for male. Or two for female.


Results (Updated 7/10/2011)

Sailingaway has suggested that I not post the candidate percentages publicly because the information could be useful to opposing candidates. While the information makes these posts interesting, he may be right, so all I will announce is the number of Ron Paul supporters identified, which is of course the focus of the robopolling.

When I started this post on Friday, I had not actually downloaded the spreadsheets of polling results yet because it seemed that Dynamic Interactive had locked me out of that area of the website due to my credit going negative (it actually hadn't locked me out). I inferred from some statistics showing digits pressed by call recipients that Ron Paul (number 7) had received 133 votes. Actually, he only received 110 votes. There were 23 cases of people pressing the number 7 during the call intro before hanging up. At least, that is the conclusion I've drawn from calling two people who were shown to have pressed '7' without the system registering votes for Ron (they both said they hung up immediately upon realizing it was a robocall). It is strange, however, that there seem to be a lot more erroneous '7' entries than for any other number. Could it be another conspiracy against Ron Paul?!?! ;)


Costs

24,155 Iowa telephones were called at a cost of $239.37 in credit at Dynamic Interactive. That's $2.18 per identified Ron Paul supporter. I consider this a huge success due to the change in strategy prompted by yesterday's somewhat disappointing results. With the new strategy, I'm confident that I'll be able to identify Ron Paul supporters at a rate of about $2 each for quite some time. The main obstacle to adding huge numbers to Ron Paul's Ames straw poll turnout now will not be exhausting his favorable demographics (I am no longer limited to information in the Iowa voter database), but funding. Thus far I have been encouraging people to max out with the official campaign first, but I suspect that with this change in strategy, we'll be giving the campaign a run for its money in terms of efficiently identifying Ron Paul supporters for the Ames straw poll and Iowa caucuses. The sooner I can complete a pass through my new phone list, the more likely it will be I can make a second pass through the list and re-dial numbers that responded with busy signals, answering machines, etc the first time. There needs to be some gap between each attempt in order to minimize the chance of any blowback from my highly unorthodox (but so far successful) new strategy.


The Bottom Line

After 7/8/2011, a total of 207 Ron Paul supporters have been identified through robopolling. The total cost, calculated from http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?302597-Robopoll-Project-Accounting by adding up all sales ($1,405.12) and subtracting total current balances ($799.96), is $605.16. That's $2.92 per identified Ron Paul supporter since I began robopolling.
 
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More excellent work.

Unrelated, about the "staging area" to move people from and to the straw poll, what is your current thinking on that?

On other threads there is a general debate about whether we should have one of those. If you would weigh in in favor, it might move the project
forward if you think it should move forward. I'm taking the position that we should do what you want.
 
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More excellent work.

Unrelated, about the "staging area" to move people from and to the straw poll, what is your current thinking on that?

On other threads there is a general debate about whether we should have one of those. If you would weigh in in favor, it might move the project
forward if you think it should move forward. I'm taking the position that we should do what you want.

Can you link to the thread? I don't have any idea about what "staging area" refers to.
 
rp08orbust, do you have an amazon.com payments account? They're not charging credit card fees for now, and you can cash out to a bank or amazon credits.
 
I identified 133 supporters in the Ames area for about $238, which comes out to $1.79 each.. calling credit at Dynamic Interactive went negative
Curious, how did it go negative? Shouldn't $238 be just about how much you could have covered since 7/7?

PayPal: $213.19
Dynamic Interactive: $25.25
 
133 supporters in one day? Wow, we need to keep this up. Just think, you could be responsible for Ron winning Ames, which could propel him to win the nomination, the general election and enable him to save the entire country, all because of your efforts here in polling and identifying supporters. Keep up the good work!
 
Curious, how did it go negative? Shouldn't $238 be just about how much you could have covered since 7/7?

PayPal: $213.19
Dynamic Interactive: $25.25

LOL I'm glad someone is paying attention to the details. It went negative because I only transferred $210 from PayPal to DI because I purchased a round 6,000 minutes of credit. I still had ~$3 at PayPal.
 
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I don't really understand what it is that you're doing, but it sounds like it's working well. Please keep up the good work!
 
What's the new strategy?

IIRC it was stopping using the voter database/phone list and just going for ALL cellphones in the area. Which could work since the only requirement for the strawpoll is that you be a resident. And hopefully the campaign will have a booth to register new voters at the strawpoll.
 
Glad your having such success, I may have to make a donation. How much do you think it will take to complete your plan.

I don't really understand what it is that you're doing, but it sounds like it's working well. Please keep up the good work!

He is identifying RP supporters, in order to mobilize them for Ames, and probably other things as well.
 
Just wondering but when RP supporters are identified what information are you then giving / receiving from them?
 
This probably the most important effort the grassroots and out of state people can be doing for the campaign. We should raise money for this ASAP.
 
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