Iowa Robopoll Report 7/13/2011

rp08orbust

Member
Joined
Dec 20, 2007
Messages
4,803
.
Note: Please do not quote my updates. This saves work for moderators when I need to edit them.


Status Update [7/20/2011]

I have not done any robopolling since 7/13/2011 as I wait for a report from Jun (tobefree) on how many straw poll votes for Ron Paul the list of 312 phone numbers I sold him on 7/13/2011 yields after dialing each number at least twice to get an answer. Not only is this information crucial for attracting more customers, but it is important for me in determining whether this is a worthwhile venture. Since it has taken a week for his volunteers to work through 312 phone numbers, I can only speculate that rp2012.org's volunteer phonebanking capacity has fallen significantly since the Ron Paul campaign began using volunteer phonebankers a few weeks ago. I therefore don't expect much more in sales from rp2012.org between now and the Ames straw poll.

I also haven't been able to get any detailed feedback about what the phone numbers that my customers have sent to Steve have yielded in ticket sales. From the reports of a few individual phonebankers volunteering for the campaign, it sounds like the voter yield from my phone lists might be around 20%, and that none of those persuaded to attend the straw poll were already planning on it as a result of calls from the campaign's phonebankers. Another piece of information I'd need to know to determine whether further robopolling would be worthwhile is whether the campaign has enough phonebankers to make use of all phone lists the robopolling is capable of producing. At this time, I do not even know whether all phone lists that my customers have submitted as their choice of numbers for phonebanking have been called. The best way to get this crucial information would be for the Ron Paul campaign to purchase phone lists from me directly themselves, thereby allowing for more communication between me and the campaign, in addition to opening up a great deal more funding potential for the robopolling. If you are a volunteer phonebanker for the campaign and would like to make phone calls from my lists, then suggest to Steve Bierfeldt that the campaign purchase phone lists from me.

In the meantime, I do have nearly $1,100 in cash from pending sales. I do not intend to spend this cash on robopolling until I'm sure all of the 1,270 phone numbers I have obtained thus far have been called. Since peoples' presidential preferences change over time (hopefully in Ron Paul's favor with the Conviction ad currently running in Iowa), it would not make sense to store up phone numbers until we're sure there are phonebankers ready to make use of them while they are fresh. Also, this robopolling business does pose some risks of blowback for me personally, and I want to squeeze out every vote possible from existing phone lists before I take risks obtaining more.

If any pending sales are canceled, payments will be refunded in full.


Previous Iowa Robopolls

Please see the thread from 6/30/2011 for an explanation of why I'm doing these robopolls.

6/30/2011
7/1/2011
7/6/2011
7/7/2011
7/8/2011
7/11/2011
7/12/2011


Robopolling Account

See http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?302597-Robopoll-Project-Accounting for full accounting of the project.

Current Balances (as of 7/20/2011):

Balances
PayPal: 995.12
Amazon: 95.00
CallFire: 9.07
Dynamic Interactive: -6.34
RP Phone Numbers: 0
NeoSpeech (Words): 251


Purchase Ron Paul Phone Lists

I am currently selling phone numbers of those who identified themselves as Ron Paul supporters in robopolls; see http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?302597-Robopoll-Project-Accounting for the current price per phone number. These phone numbers are excellent for calling to find Ron Paul supporters interested in attending the Ames straw poll on August 13.

If you want to purchase these phone numbers, you can make a payment directly to my PayPal account, r gear y iii at gmail dot com. If you describe it as a Personal Transfer from your PayPal balance or bank account, PayPal charges no fee (DO NOT describe it as payment for a good or service). Do not describe it as a purchase or else I could be charged an international transaction fee. If you cannot pay me without incurring a fee to you or myself, then consider using Amazon Payments to make the payment (my account email address is the same as my PayPal email address): https://payments.amazon.com/sdui/sdui/index.htm . In your PayPal or Amazon Payment note, please indicate your RPF username; otherwise I will use your initials in the public robopoll project accounting unless you request to be anonymous.

Each list of phone numbers you purchase is guaranteed to be unique from any other list I sell (i.e., the same phone number will not be sold more than once). Once I have conducted the robopolls necessary to fill your order, I will send the list of phone numbers as an attached Excel file to the email address of your choice (e.g., your own, Steve's, etc). You are welcome to share your lists with others.


Today's Samples

I am currently using a strategy that does not rely on the Iowa voter database. I cannot describe my polling sample publicly without giving my strategy away to competing campaigns.


The questions

My poll asks the following four questions:

Question 1
Good evening, this is Robert. I'd like to know which candidate you currently support for president in 2012. Please enter: One for Barack Obama. Two for Mitt Romney. Three for Michele Bachmann. Four for Tim Pawlenty. Five for Sarah Palin. Six for Rick Perry. Seven for Ron Paul. Or zero for other or undecided. Once again, please enter. One for Barack Obama. Two for Mitt Romney. Three for Michele Bachmann. Four for Tim Pawlenty. Five for Sarah Palin. Six for Rick Perry. Seven for Ron Paul. Or zero for other or undecided.

Question 2
Thank you. Next, please indicate your voter registration status in Iowa by entering: Zero if you are not registered to vote in Iowa. One for Republican. Two for Democrat. Or Three for Independent. Once again, please indicate your voter registration status in Iowa by entering: Zero if you are not registered to vote in Iowa. One for Republican. Two for Democrat. Or Three for Independent.

Question 3
Thank you. Next, please indicate your age by entering: One if you are 29 or younger. Two if you are between 30 and 44. Three if you are between 45 and 59. Or Four if you are 60 or older. Once again, please indicate your age by entering: One if you are 29 or younger. Two if you are between 30 and 44. Three if you are between 45 and 59. Or Four if you are 60 or older.

Question 4
Next, please indicate your gender by entering: One for male. Or two for female. Once again, please indicate your gender by entering: One for male. Or two for female.


Results

72,174 calls were made to Iowa telephones on 7/13/2011 at a cost of $598.54 and identified 312 Ron Paul supporters. That's $1.92 per identified Ron Paul supporter. The complete list of phone numbers that produced votes for Ron Paul has been sent to tobefree (rp2012.org), who was my only customer today.

After today, a total of 1,270 Ron Paul supporters have been identified through robopolling. The total cost, calculated from http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showthread.php?302597-Robopoll-Project-Accounting by adding up all sales ($3,595.24) and subtracting total current balances ($1,092.85), is $2,502.39. That's $1.98 per identified Ron Paul supporter since I began robopolling.
 
Last edited:
Can you make custom list of candidates names? Is it important to be able to use this as accurate polling data?
Can you leave off people now and add people?

Good evening, this is Robert. I'd like to know which candidate you currently support for president in 2012. Please enter: One for Barack Obama. Two for Mitt Romney. Three for Michele Bachmann. Four for Tim Pawlenty. Five for Sarah Palin. Six for Rick Perry. Seven for Ron Paul. Or zero for other or undecided. Once again, please enter. One for Barack Obama. Two for Mitt Romney. Three for Michele Bachmann. Four for Tim Pawlenty. Five for Sarah Palin. Six for Rick Perry. Seven for Ron Paul. Or zero for other or undecided.

Ok, would it be possible to expand our reach if we leave Obama out? Change the wording which candidate you would prefer to be the Republican Nominee for President.

And add Christine O'Donnell. I'd just like to know what would happen with that. I'd like to know what would happen with Christine and no Michele and no Sarah.
This would change everything around, I know, but I'm talking about maybe doing just one run possibly, or part of one run, with one of these permutations.
 
Great, so today is the 14th, so you did robopoll last night but you can't release any results? Also, you're doing another one tonight?
 
P.S. forgot to mention i noticed a couple people on FB talking about being robopolled. Fairly positive tone about it.
 
Can you make custom list of candidates names? Is it important to be able to use this as accurate polling data?
Can you leave off people now and add people?

Good evening, this is Robert. I'd like to know which candidate you currently support for president in 2012. Please enter: One for Barack Obama. Two for Mitt Romney. Three for Michele Bachmann. Four for Tim Pawlenty. Five for Sarah Palin. Six for Rick Perry. Seven for Ron Paul. Or zero for other or undecided. Once again, please enter. One for Barack Obama. Two for Mitt Romney. Three for Michele Bachmann. Four for Tim Pawlenty. Five for Sarah Palin. Six for Rick Perry. Seven for Ron Paul. Or zero for other or undecided.

Ok, would it be possible to expand our reach if we leave Obama out? Change the wording which candidate you would prefer to be the Republican Nominee for President.

And add Christine O'Donnell. I'd just like to know what would happen with that. I'd like to know what would happen with Christine and no Michele and no Sarah.
This would change everything around, I know, but I'm talking about maybe doing just one run possibly, or part of one run, with one of these permutations.

Christine odonnell hasn't remotely suggested she would run and it would change the ability to compare apples to apples going forward. I really wouldn't throw in extraneous people if you want the polling to be worth anything.
 
Christine odonnell hasn't remotely suggested she would run and it would change the ability to compare apples to apples going forward. I really wouldn't throw in extraneous people if you want the polling to be worth anything.

I don't have a counter argument. Both of your points are right. However, I'd still be interested in that data. Are we using the poll data, is anyone planning on making apples to apples? even for their own amusement?
 
Keep the project going. Ron Paul for president is important. Idc if some people get pissed off (they won't know it's a Ron Paul supporter calling), and who cares if only 20% of your names are good. $10 per vote is still good. And if each of them bring a friend, that's only $30,000 more to win. Please keep it up.
 
So after all this effort and funding we are unable to coordinate the results with the campaign in Iowa? Is there anyone in this forum who can escalate this issue?

Its great to identify these potential Ames goers and caucus supporters, but without taking it the full length and having organized campaign folks reach out to them, does the list make a difference?
 
Last edited:
Be careful not to give too much information. Maybe there should be a higher screened forum for this...
 
Clearly, this effort has been derailed in some way.

What happened?

A week ago, there was no discussion of the campaign paying you for these lists.

And then, a week ago, you said you were going to have to keep quiet for a while (or something).

If I had to guess, I'd say that you personally might be reaching your own, personal, contribution limits, your $2500.

Perhaps the campaign said "we can't take more than $2500 worth of names from you because you're coming close to the $2500 limit."

That's just a guess. But a week ago, you weren't talking about selling names to the campaign.

So something has happened, something has changed.

What are the problems, and how can they be fixed.

I know that you are the master of the cell phone technology and you should still have all this data, not only of Ron Paul supporters, but of everyone.
and you seem to have real modern insights as to how cell phone technology plus data can work to our advantage.

Pretty much the last message you sent out was "don't worry about anything, these lists are full of fresh numbers, and these fresh numbers are getting us great results."

A week to 10 days ago we were debating rock concerts / gathering places / staging areas, but we didn't have much in the way of urgency, because Ron Paul was clearly winning with young independents with cell phones.

Now the one thing that we can look at every day "we IDd 456 Ron Paul supporters" is gone.

How do we fix this? I contributed to this project a tiny amount. Others did as well. I'm not maxed out. If need be, you can say that my contribution to you was a contribution from me to the campaign. Others may say the same thing.

What is the problem, how can it be fixed?


I am required to include my name in the messages.

Angry people can do nasty things and make a lot of noise.
 
None of this makes sense to me. Why must anyone buy the numbers? Why can't rp-bust simply conduct the polling and send the numbers to the campaign via email or anonymously in the mail. What is the difference if I happen to know 20 people in IOWA who support Ron Paul and give those people's numbers to the campaign to call...furthermore, if those numbers can be found in a phonebook then there is nothing wrong with that...i wonder where the numbers are coming from. How is that any different from a volunteer calling people asking them to support Ron Paul for President. Isn't that a 1st amendment issue. What is stopping me from grabbing my local GOP voter registration list and calling those numbers to advocate that people support Ron Paul....and then saying to the campaign, these x amount of people said they support Ron Paul to me over the phone...I don't see this as a monetary support...
 
Last edited:
Back
Top