sailingaway
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If you are from Iowa you can vote in the next round of polling, here:
http://www.2012iowareport.com/
Iowa report online poll Iowa residents only -- Ron Paul tied for 2d w/ likely caucus goers
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If you are from Iowa you can vote in the next round of polling, here:
http://www.2012iowareport.com/
tremendoustie
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These numbers are outstanding -- only 1% from 1st!
I hope this poll reflects reality.
I hope this poll reflects reality.
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sailingaway
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He was lower with all voting, but still ok, but higher with caucus goers. A bunch responding apparently had no intention of going to the caucus.
t0rnado
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The type of people who do go to caucuses very fervently support whoever they do. Do not get discouraged by polls that show Ron Paul losing to people like Romney and Cain because 9% of support in the polls translates to a lot more support in the caucuses and conventions.
R3volutionJedi
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Sarah Palin should NOT run.
If she's not running, then we'll only have to deal with Herman, Mitt, and Michele for Iowa. So, if we work hard enough . RP will be able to pull something off.
If she's not running, then we'll only have to deal with Herman, Mitt, and Michele for Iowa. So, if we work hard enough . RP will be able to pull something off.
wgadget
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Yesterday I heard Eric Erickson (Redstate.com) say that he was surprised at how well Ron Paul is running his campaign this time around, that Ron has got some great campaign managers and is sending out some great emails.
Not bad, coming from a neocon...
Not bad, coming from a neocon...
cdc482
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RonPaul101.com
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If I had to bet on Palin...
I think the odds are she does not run for President. Say 60~65% chance against her running; hopefully I'm right. People think she will because of her campaign-like schedule these days, but she has continued to grow funding for her PAC and has not filed for a PEC. I believe this is intentional so that she can use the more relax guidelines of a PAC and wield power over whichever candidate she wants along the way. She'll keep the Fox News job and set her sites for 2016; her people are telling her that is going to be a better year for her chances because they assume Obama gets re-elected regardless. We here all know the economy will likely erode Obama's numbers everyday until the election.
I think the odds are she does not run for President. Say 60~65% chance against her running; hopefully I'm right. People think she will because of her campaign-like schedule these days, but she has continued to grow funding for her PAC and has not filed for a PEC. I believe this is intentional so that she can use the more relax guidelines of a PAC and wield power over whichever candidate she wants along the way. She'll keep the Fox News job and set her sites for 2016; her people are telling her that is going to be a better year for her chances because they assume Obama gets re-elected regardless. We here all know the economy will likely erode Obama's numbers everyday until the election.
sailingaway
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Bachmann is very strong in Iowa as is Pawlenty. Apparently that 'neighbor' bit keeps them both in the headlines pretty effectively. And Bachmann and Cain have been visiting the local tea party groups since January, at least. We have a good shot, but it sure isn't going to be a cakewalk.
The Dark Knight
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Caucuses benefit us because it favors the strong grassroots candidates. I will say that Ron Paul will do 5-10% better in Caucus than a primary. I wish the polls in Iowa were polls of Caucus goers instead of likely voters. They would be much more accurate.
PaulConventionWV
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That's the way it usually is with caucuses. This is a great poll!
sailingaway
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Yeah but Bachmann Cain and Pawlenty are going for the activist grass roots, too.
PaulConventionWV
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They'll never get it like we do, though. Not even close. We can only pull ahead from here. We have to make a full-out effort in Iowa to win the caucus. Our chances are looking very good right now. If we pull that off, there's no telling what would happen in the other states. If we win Iowa, I think Nevada would be another likely win.
sailingaway
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No, and no, but it is Iowa residents only, and caucus goers and straw poll attendees tend to be more activist and likely to be drawn to this kind of poll. I'm not saying it is scientific, but that it is of Iowans, only, and broke down those likely to attend the caucus and those not, with interesting results, made it worth looking at I thought.
Not sure how scientific this poll is, but I like it.
Says not all respondents will get to the straw poll/caucuses, but shows RP supporters are out there.
Key is to get them to the straw poll/caucuses as is being discussed in various threads.
Romney will be tough to beat given money and organization, but 2nd is key in the straw poll and caucuses.
That will get a lot of people seriously considering RP.
I see Romney fading like he did last election - and this time Romneycare is a bigger deal.
I doubt Palin will run, but she can make any candidate a front runner given her mindless supporters on Fox.
Since Palin is religious right and a neocon warmonger, I can't see he getting behind RP. Just hope she does not rip him too much on Fox.
The focus needs to be the economy where RP is the strongest and while I don't like it happening as it is, the economy going further into the dumps will help RP.
Glad to see Palin and Bachmann feuding. Their supporters overlap a bit, and I would love to see Palin's supporters spread out over a bunch of candidates as opposed to one.
Iowa is a very conservative christian state. If RP can get 2nd to a Mormon the straw poll (RP could win, but Romney has so my money and organization and did it last time) and 2nd in the caucuses, this will mean a lot for a tough christian states like SC where RP is not polling well.
Easy for RP to pivot away from religion in NH and NV.
What really surprised me last election was how RP did not do better in NH. I expect Romney to get a lot support there due to it being next to Mass. and him practically living there lately.
RP needs a 2nd in NH because I don't see him doing well in SC given polling, unless doing well in IA and NH changes views there.
A win in NV would be great. That's one state where the grassroots is really strong and could make it happen.
This makes RP a front runner. I see Romney fading but hanging in their due to his cash.
Note how McCain came out of nowhere last election. Did not participate in IA, big bump in NH and Fox got behind him when he had been dead weight with no money.
The key is to watch out for the next McCain that Fox will Trump. Could be any candidate as nobody expected it rorm McCain.
Could Fox get behind RP? Very doubtful unless he starts off very strong and the economy is really in the dumps and the whole election focuses on that.
Says not all respondents will get to the straw poll/caucuses, but shows RP supporters are out there.
Key is to get them to the straw poll/caucuses as is being discussed in various threads.
Romney will be tough to beat given money and organization, but 2nd is key in the straw poll and caucuses.
That will get a lot of people seriously considering RP.
I see Romney fading like he did last election - and this time Romneycare is a bigger deal.
I doubt Palin will run, but she can make any candidate a front runner given her mindless supporters on Fox.
Since Palin is religious right and a neocon warmonger, I can't see he getting behind RP. Just hope she does not rip him too much on Fox.
The focus needs to be the economy where RP is the strongest and while I don't like it happening as it is, the economy going further into the dumps will help RP.
Glad to see Palin and Bachmann feuding. Their supporters overlap a bit, and I would love to see Palin's supporters spread out over a bunch of candidates as opposed to one.
Iowa is a very conservative christian state. If RP can get 2nd to a Mormon the straw poll (RP could win, but Romney has so my money and organization and did it last time) and 2nd in the caucuses, this will mean a lot for a tough christian states like SC where RP is not polling well.
Easy for RP to pivot away from religion in NH and NV.
What really surprised me last election was how RP did not do better in NH. I expect Romney to get a lot support there due to it being next to Mass. and him practically living there lately.
RP needs a 2nd in NH because I don't see him doing well in SC given polling, unless doing well in IA and NH changes views there.
A win in NV would be great. That's one state where the grassroots is really strong and could make it happen.
This makes RP a front runner. I see Romney fading but hanging in their due to his cash.
Note how McCain came out of nowhere last election. Did not participate in IA, big bump in NH and Fox got behind him when he had been dead weight with no money.
The key is to watch out for the next McCain that Fox will Trump. Could be any candidate as nobody expected it rorm McCain.
Could Fox get behind RP? Very doubtful unless he starts off very strong and the economy is really in the dumps and the whole election focuses on that.
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