Iowa Poll- Iowa State University/KCRG/Gazette poll- Cain 24.5%, Paul 20.4%, Gingrich 4.8%

parocks said:
No, actually, to attack Ron Paul at this point would still be shooting down. Because we're in 5th in the national polls.

We have not gotten the media attention which creates a surge, an inexplicable, and temporary spike in the polls. Going from 8 to 38 % in 2 weeks nationally, that's a surge. Those surges are all media created. All the candidates that have had those surges have fallen back.

We have yet to have a surge. We're simply steadily gaining support in Iowa and New Hampshire. Nothing to really get truly excited about. Keep working hard.

Now, if we win Iowa, without the media hype that Cain, Bachmann, Perry, Cain and Newt have gotten, with a constant level of hype for Romney, well that is absolutely,
certainly a massive massive story. And at that time, Jan 3,4 and lasting at least a week, we should be getting HUGE PRESS all over TV all over everywhere, and the surge we get from that huge press will lead to great results in New Hampshire. And then it gets interesting. At least that's a reasonable way it could go.

Right now, Newt is having a surge, Newt takes the hits, and Newt falls off by Jan 3. There's no one above 20%, and we use our powerful ground game to get the win in Iowa.
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Stop trying to shit on enthusiasm. National polls mean absolutely nothing. Giuliani and Thompson were leading the national polls this time in '07, and Ron ended up winning more delegates than both of them put together.
 
bluesc said:
Stop trying to shit on enthusiasm. National polls mean absolutely nothing. Giuliani and Thompson were leading the national polls this time in '07, and Ron ended up winning more delegates than both of them put together.
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+ rep. You hit the nail on the head. Of course we want to do better in the national polls, but national polls mean nothing in presidential elections both primary and general.....we need to win states. We need to win Iowa and at least have a strong second in New Hampshire...if we do that...we will get the ball rolling. That's whats important.
 
michaelkellenger said:
+ rep. You hit the nail on the head. Of course we want to do better in the national polls, but national polls mean nothing in presidential elections both primary and general.....we need to win states. We need to win Iowa and at least have a strong second in New Hampshire...if we do that...we will get the ball rolling. That's whats important.
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We need to be like, and I don't mean philosophically, Kerry in 2004. He was nowhere in the national polls until his surprise win in Iowa and that made him win pretty much everything else [for nomination purposes].
 
Karsten said:
We need to be like, and I don't mean philosophically, Kerry in 2004. He was nowhere in the national polls until his surprise win in Iowa and that made him win pretty much everything else [for nomination purposes].
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Exactly. Iowa doesn't necessarily mean we will win it all, but it will make a huge difference...it always helps immensely in later states. We need it.
 
And one good thing about the nomination in a re-election year: no competing other party. In 2008, Huckabee won Iowa but he couldn't compete with Obama's Iowa win in the media coverage.
This time, Ron Paul will not have that particular problem. :)
 
Wow that's a great point. Didn't even think of that, so true. Huckabee got attention, but nothing nearly he would have. If we win Iowa....they can't ignore it, and at the very least there is no competing party as you say. That is huge. Just like in 2004, Kerry had no competing party coverage.

Interesting crosstabs on the poll, RP leads among men, non-tea party members, least income individuals, college graduates and those with no religious preference.
 
bluesc said:
Stop trying to shit on enthusiasm. National polls mean absolutely nothing. Giuliani and Thompson were leading the national polls this time in '07, and Ron ended up winning more delegates than both of them put together.
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I'm not shitting on enthusiasm and I'm not saying that National polls mean anything.

I'm saying that this year at least, being the "front-runner" is not where you want to be.

Bachmann was frontrunner

Cain was frontrunner

Perry was frontrunner.

They were hyped by the media, their numbers went up, and then went down again.

When you're the frontrunner, they can shoot at you. Newt is the new frontrunner now, and we can shoot at him, and his numbers will fall.

When you're in fifth, they can't shoot at your, because that's shooting down, and that's bad.

We are just where we want to be in Iowa and NH. Our numbers are great there. We should be happy about those numbers.

But if it doesn't make us the frontrunner, it means that we don't get hit. And we don't want to get hit. Really, we don't.

It really would be better for us if we hit Newt.

Also, consider, we have good, positive forward momentum. I believe, though, that surges, in 2011 at least, are accompanied by media hype. If no media hype, no surge. Something similar like good positive forward momentum.

We get a win in Iowa, it's despite the media ignoring us. And right then, that's when we get our real surge, which is helped by the media.

That takes us to a great result in New Hampshire. And then it gets interesting.
 
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michaelkellenger said:
Interesting crosstabs on the poll, RP leads among men, non-tea party members, least income individuals, college graduates and those with no religious preference.
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We're all individuals. I'm sure there are many Ron Paul supporters that fall under entirely different descriptions. The last thing we should do is go after "groups".
 
Goodnight everybody looks like we'll soon be living in a country with peace, freedom, and prosperity!
 
RP Supporter said:
I was a little skeptical about seeing Gingrich so low. Some places I check are already dismissing it as an outlier because of that.:rolleyes: But if the poll was taken over two weeks, it makes sense. And it also means that if the poll had just been taken in the last week, we'd see Cain a bit lower and Gingrich a bit higher. Which means Paul might very well be in first place now.:D

There's no doubt the campaign is entering uncharted waters here. We're going to be slammed hard if this continues. But Paul won't be another flavor of the month. He's going to win this thing.
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Why does everyone seem to be rooting for Ron Paul to be slammed hard? I would think that not being slammed hard is the better place to be.

The media knows that it can't brush off an Iowa win by Ron Paul. And Jan 4 is when we want the wall coverage that we deserve and the American public expects to start. That should carry us to very close a victory in NH.
 
parocks said:
Why does everyone seem to be rooting for Ron Paul to be slammed hard? I would think that not being slammed hard is the better place to be.
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I think people think if he's "slammed" that means the media recognizes him. But that's stupid. Actually, this being under the radar and kind of sneak attack in for the win in Iowa is awesome.
 
Karsten said:
We're all individuals. I'm sure there are many Ron Paul supporters that fall under entirely different descriptions. The last thing we should do is go after "groups".
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What if we can recognize that a certain type of person likes Ron Paul? A 18-29 year old male? And if we make sure that we get all the 18-29 year old men to vote, Ron Paul would win.

If by going after groups, certain demographics, we win, I'm 100% for that. And we do crush it so hard with 18-29 men, that I think that sooner rather than later we turn this away from Austrian Econ lectures to schoolhouse rock. Hey kids, you see, it's like March Madness. Obama is in the other bracket. He won. He's in the finals.
If you want to vote for him, you can in November. But Ron Paul is in this bracket, and you can pick between Ron Paul and those other people. You'll want to vote for Ron Paul, because most politicians really suck and Ron Paul doesn't.
 
Karsten said:
I think people think if he's "slammed" that means the media recognizes him. But that's stupid. Actually, this being under the radar and kind of sneak attack in for the win in Iowa is awesome.
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Things are going along smoothly. I'd want to see the age crosstabs on this one and the Bloomberg. We, the grassroots, should be considering going to Iowa (those who aren't already doing Christmas with Ron Paul).

We really should have a grassroots project for this. a grassroots gotv project separate from the official campaign, one that gets at the voters in a different way than the standard list/phone/address model.
 
Cain does much better among women than men as do Perry and Gingrich.
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Man, women are really that stupid that they prefer proven cheats over a loyal man...wait a second, I already knew wome preferred jerks since middle school.
 
After the last 2 mornings, I actually looked forward to waking up this morning to see a new poll that has Ron doing good. :p
 
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