Paul.Bearer.of.Injustice
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I think a lot of the people in this thread fall in love easily. 
**IOWA Caucus Prediction Thread and Bet**
- Thread starter Paul.Bearer.of.Injustice
- Start date
CavortingChicken
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Paul 100%
FluffyUnbound
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Romney 34
Paul 19
Huckabee 17
Everyone else in single digits.
Huckabee's people won't show up because his campaign organization is too weak. Romney's not rising here per se; it's just that his people show up and Huckabee's don't. The pastors and the Fair Tax people just won't get it done for Huck. Paul's number also spikes because of the low turnout environment [this number assumes the Iowa troops get the job done getting people to the caucus sites].
McCain and Thompson fail to break out because his people bail when it becomes apparent they have no shot. AND they have turnout problems even worse than Huckabee's.
In the aftermath of the caucus, Fox News headline: "Romney Wins Iowa Caucus; Huckabee Third".
Huckabee's campaign takes a dirt nap after Iowa. Unfortunately, this provides Romney with a path to the nomination if we don't stop him [with McCain's help] in New Hampshire.
Paul 19
Huckabee 17
Everyone else in single digits.
Huckabee's people won't show up because his campaign organization is too weak. Romney's not rising here per se; it's just that his people show up and Huckabee's don't. The pastors and the Fair Tax people just won't get it done for Huck. Paul's number also spikes because of the low turnout environment [this number assumes the Iowa troops get the job done getting people to the caucus sites].
McCain and Thompson fail to break out because his people bail when it becomes apparent they have no shot. AND they have turnout problems even worse than Huckabee's.
In the aftermath of the caucus, Fox News headline: "Romney Wins Iowa Caucus; Huckabee Third".
Huckabee's campaign takes a dirt nap after Iowa. Unfortunately, this provides Romney with a path to the nomination if we don't stop him [with McCain's help] in New Hampshire.
FluffyUnbound
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I have one question [and concern] about the caucus process itself:
I know it's very intimate in many locations - everyone jammed together in a small space listening to speeches and talking to each other.
Given the bad blood out there this time around, what's the potential for...unpleasantness...at caucus sites?
Is there shouting, booing, verbal arm-twisting to change votes, etc.? What's the potential for that to get a bit out of hand, given the high motivation level of some supporters [on all sides]?
I've been in debate crowds and the tension was so high you could cut it with a knife. I don't know how much worse it would have been if everyone there had to interact in some way.
I know it's very intimate in many locations - everyone jammed together in a small space listening to speeches and talking to each other.
Given the bad blood out there this time around, what's the potential for...unpleasantness...at caucus sites?
Is there shouting, booing, verbal arm-twisting to change votes, etc.? What's the potential for that to get a bit out of hand, given the high motivation level of some supporters [on all sides]?
I've been in debate crowds and the tension was so high you could cut it with a knife. I don't know how much worse it would have been if everyone there had to interact in some way.
dreamcast65
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We need Dr. Paul to do well if we expect to get to 23 million.
Last edited:
Trance Dance Master
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George W. Bush (41%), Steve Forbes (30%), Alan Keyes (14%), Gary Bauer (9%), John McCain (5%)
I win! Oh wait, you meant the 2008 caucus, didn't you? OK, I'll go with that.
Ron Paul (41%), Rudy Giuliani (30%), John McCain (14%), Mitt Romney (9%), Fred Thompson (5%)
Paul.Bearer.of.Injustice
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Trance Dance Master
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He's not Rudy McRomneyson.
BigMatt419
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Dear Ron paul supporters who think Dr paul will come in a rank lower then First.
@#$% You, I don't give a crap what you think is "realistic".
My Bet is
1 - Paul 99.1%
2 - Huck .3%
3 - McCain .3%
4 - Rom .2%
5 - Guiliani .1%
@#$% You, I don't give a crap what you think is "realistic".
My Bet is
1 - Paul 99.1%
2 - Huck .3%
3 - McCain .3%
4 - Rom .2%
5 - Guiliani .1%
TheLibertyTree
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The potential is lower than you might think. Every caucus I've been too has been pretty dignified - the other people there are neighbors and the average age probably 45...
Nailhead
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Romney........35%
Paul..............30%
Huckster.......20%
McCain.........10%
Giuliani...........3%
Thompson......2%
[edit: Aiming for 2nd is a good strategy that is not out of our reach and will pay off when the media has to accept the fact that ron paul beat one of their appointed front men in Iowa (Mitt/Huck)]
Paul..............30%
Huckster.......20%
McCain.........10%
Giuliani...........3%
Thompson......2%
[edit: Aiming for 2nd is a good strategy that is not out of our reach and will pay off when the media has to accept the fact that ron paul beat one of their appointed front men in Iowa (Mitt/Huck)]
Last edited:
cska80
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Taken from my previous post on a dead thread.
Things to keep in mind, and my prediction.
John McCain - I highly doubt the American public, let alone Iowans, will ever forgive McCain for his Amnesty Bill. Immigration will continue to be one of the top three issues in voters minds. He's also always talking about how he can work with anyone across the isle and find compromise. I think more and more people are realizing that compromise is the reason we are where we are today. Compromise with socialism only leads to a little bit of socialism until they come back for more.
Mike Huckabee - He's taken Religion as his shield from his record as well as his views on immigration. I think Bush has awaken people to those who call themselves conservatives and use something else to distract you from their past and record on things like taxes, etc.
Mitt Romney - I'm Agnostic so I have no bias here. I still don't think anyone is going to vote for a Mormon when it comes down to it. Especially, in a caucus situation where you have to stand up in from of your neighbors and colleagues and expose your support for a Mormon. It's different when you can just walk in and anonymously cast a vote.
Rudy Ghouliani - Sanctuary City. Social Liberal. Scandals. Multiple ex-wives. A New Yorker. I could go on but...do I really need to?
Fred Thompson - I predict Fred Thompson is going to do a lot better than people think. I believe he's another victim of the corruption in the polls. Although I do not support him, obviously, I think he is more conservative than the previous 4 candidates presented. This is what it all comes down to. Republicans DO NOT want another fake Conservative like Bush. It would mean the end to the party...even worse of a situation the party is in now.
So, my prediction is...
1. Fred Thompson
2. Ron Paul
3. Mike Huckabee
4. Rudy Ghouliani
5. Mitt Romney
6. John McCain
7. Duncan Hunter
Things to keep in mind, and my prediction.
John McCain - I highly doubt the American public, let alone Iowans, will ever forgive McCain for his Amnesty Bill. Immigration will continue to be one of the top three issues in voters minds. He's also always talking about how he can work with anyone across the isle and find compromise. I think more and more people are realizing that compromise is the reason we are where we are today. Compromise with socialism only leads to a little bit of socialism until they come back for more.
Mike Huckabee - He's taken Religion as his shield from his record as well as his views on immigration. I think Bush has awaken people to those who call themselves conservatives and use something else to distract you from their past and record on things like taxes, etc.
Mitt Romney - I'm Agnostic so I have no bias here. I still don't think anyone is going to vote for a Mormon when it comes down to it. Especially, in a caucus situation where you have to stand up in from of your neighbors and colleagues and expose your support for a Mormon. It's different when you can just walk in and anonymously cast a vote.
Rudy Ghouliani - Sanctuary City. Social Liberal. Scandals. Multiple ex-wives. A New Yorker. I could go on but...do I really need to?
Fred Thompson - I predict Fred Thompson is going to do a lot better than people think. I believe he's another victim of the corruption in the polls. Although I do not support him, obviously, I think he is more conservative than the previous 4 candidates presented. This is what it all comes down to. Republicans DO NOT want another fake Conservative like Bush. It would mean the end to the party...even worse of a situation the party is in now.
So, my prediction is...
1. Fred Thompson
2. Ron Paul
3. Mike Huckabee
4. Rudy Ghouliani
5. Mitt Romney
6. John McCain
7. Duncan Hunter
Compulsive1
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Paul 32%
Romney 21%
McCain 20%
Huckabee 12%
Thompson 8%
Giuliani 6%
Hunter 1%
More of a wish list than prediction, but that's what I came up with.
Romney 21%
McCain 20%
Huckabee 12%
Thompson 8%
Giuliani 6%
Hunter 1%
More of a wish list than prediction, but that's what I came up with.
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