Intrade

[BritishOnlooker]

With regards to intrade - I've been following Paul's odds for some time. A couple of days ago (New years eve or the day before) his odds for the GOP normination crashed from ~6% to ~2%. What happened to cause Ron to crash by a factor of three on that day? Nothing. No polls, no new bad news, nothing. It seemed to me that somebody with a lot of money already betting must have had a stop-loss and sold heavily. The change was so rapid that the odds were at times more than 15% disjointed from betfair (the more liquid, mostly British equivalent). Intrade has a few small players who can really drive or hammer the odds on the back of no information, and so I wouldn't trust the odds very much.

Sure, Ron's odds aren't great today for winning Iowa (bit worse than one in three most of today), but the "true" odds are only part of the formula going into that number. If you really want to bet, the rule is simple - if you think these odds pay more than Ron's real chances then bet, if not don't (or sell).

 

[JohnGalt23g]

Mittens and frothy won't gotv enough to win a caucus. I'm confident.

I'm pretty sure Frothmeister won't have good GOTV.

I suspect Romney's GOTV will match our own. I've seen the Romney machine in action, and they are quite good.

Al Pacino would tell you it comes down to who is willing to die for that inch; he will win the contest.

 

[Publicani]

With regards to intrade - I've been following Paul's odds for some time. A couple of days ago (New years eve or the day before) his odds for the GOP normination crashed from ~6% to ~2%. What happened to cause Ron to crash by a factor of three on that day? Nothing. No polls, no new bad news, nothing. It seemed to me that somebody with a lot of money already betting must have had a stop-loss and sold heavily. The change was so rapid that the odds were at times more than 15% disjointed from betfair (the more liquid, mostly British equivalent). Intrade has a few small players who can really drive or hammer the odds on the back of no information, and so I wouldn't trust the odds very much.

Sure, Ron's odds aren't great today for winning Iowa (bit worse than one in three most of today), but the "true" odds are only part of the formula going into that number. If you really want to bet, the rule is simple - if you think these odds pay more than Ron's real chances then bet, if not don't (or sell).

I used to worry about intrade. You can see one of the threads I started here on this topic. I've been thinking about this and came to the same conclusion as you. This market is very illiquid. You can move it with a few hundred dollars or less. Right now to move the market you can buy 10 shares for $2.38 for Ron Paul to go up.

Drudge gave a headline about Intrade. So, for probably $10 K, Mitt invested in this advertisement. Even if he had to spend $100,000 - it's peanuts compare to the effect.

Just ignore it.

 

[Brett85]

I don't understand that either. The most Romney is up by in any of the recent RCP polls is 2%. What exactly are people basing their bets on? I have an account on Intrade and bought Ron's Iowa shares. I think that Ron should be the favorite to win Iowa, not Romney.

 

[silk30]

phone from home

 

[wowrevolution]

My prediction:
Mitt & Santorum support will decrease while all other candidate support increases.
Support will split and Ron Paul will win by a larger than predicted margin.

 

[braane]

My prediction:
Mitt & Santorum support will decrease while all other candidate support increases.
Support will split and Ron Paul will win by a larger than predicted margin.

Santorum is going to pick up some of the anti-Romney support and some of the anti-Paul support. Romney is going to under-perform... both Ron and Santorum will over-perform. A win and a Romney 3rd would be an awesome scenario.

 

[truetrue]

Internal polling.

 

[Karsten]

56% is not equal to 100%.
We can win this thing!

 

[Brett85]

Internal polling.

Internal polling doesn't mean much. I'll go with the 1300 voter PPP poll that had Ron up by 1 point overall and 3 points on Sunday. There's absolutely nothing to suggest that Romney is going to win Iowa. Not a thing. I believe that Romney's campaign is simply buying a mass amount of shares and raising the price.

 

[matt0611]

Internal polling doesn't mean much. I'll go with the 1300 voter PPP poll that had Ron up by 1 point overall and 3 points on Sunday. There's absolutely nothing to suggest that Romney is going to win Iowa. Not a thing. I believe that Romney's campaign is simply buying a mass amount of shares and raising the price.

Don't forget that Romney under-performed last time. I mean really, are people really passionate about Romney? Think about it....

I still don't believe Santorum will get 1st or even 2nd either. It will be close between us and Romney, but I believe we will win in the end.

 

[LopTarDaBoo]

I've tried to get on Intrade several times in the past to make some bets, but it's a royal pain to setup and you have to mail or fax important personal records overseas.

I'd love to buy some Paul shares but the privacy and theft risks are too high for me.

 

[White Bear Lake]

Paul 29%
Santorum 23%
Romney 22%

I'm calling it.

 

[Forty Twice]

I think the interesting Intrade market is this: http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/?eventId=90932 . Who will win 2012 Presidency. Obama is at 51.8%. Paul is at 2.5%. Hillary is at .7%.

A good trade would to buy equal amounts of these three. Paul supporters will not vote for any Republican besides Paul in the general. So if Paul does not win Republican nomination, the Republican nominee will lose. Almost certainly Obama wins general unless RP is Republican nominee. You nearly double your money with this trade at
nearly no risk of losing money. Problem is, it seems you need a foreign bank account to play InTrade.

 

[Brett85]

I've tried to get on Intrade several times in the past to make some bets, but it's a royal pain to setup and you have to mail or fax important personal records overseas.

I'd love to buy some Paul shares but the privacy and theft risks are too high for me.

You have to send them a check to get money into your account. That's what I had to do. It works, but the money took three weeks to get into my account.

 

[dcjones]

Romney moving down on Intrade as of 3:05 EST;

Romney: 48.7%
Paul: 24.3
Santorum: 23.7%

 

[dt_]

Mitt Romney to win the 2012 Iowa Caucus
48.7%

Ron Paul to win the 2012 Iowa Caucus
24.0%

Rick Santorum to win the 2012 Iowa Caucus
24.8%



It changed again. Santorum has a higher chance than Paul? FAT, FAT chance. Proves how irrelevant INtrade is , especially on the very day of the event.

 

[braane]

Mitt Romney to win the 2012 Iowa Caucus
48.7%

Ron Paul to win the 2012 Iowa Caucus
24.0%

Rick Santorum to win the 2012 Iowa Caucus
24.8%



It changed again. Santorum has a higher chance than Paul? FAT, FAT chance. Proves how irrelevant INtrade is , especially on the very day of the event.

It's a great time to buy Paul.

 

[truetrue]

Me too, and I hope you're right. I was just giving a reason that could shift the numbers on intrade.

 

[JoshLowry]

Iowa is going to prove intrade wrong.

I tried buying some RP shares.

Anyone else get this error?