Intrade.com: Paul overtakes Romney in Iowa, now 2nd best chance to win behind Newt

[J_White]

phone from home, go door to door, be a Paulunteer !!

 

[roughridersten]

I believe in Intrade far more than I do in any poll. Consider this: even at the hight of his popularity, Intrade never gave Cain more than a 10% chance of winning the nomination. The fact that Gingrich has risen so high (almost 4 times as likely as Cain ever got) indicates to me that he should not be taken lightly. This is not over yet. I do like the sharp fall in Romney's chances though. I'm also curious about the recent rise by Huntsman who is currently higher than Paul (though they have traded back and forth lately).

Another interesting tidbit: if you add first and second place markets for Iowa you get the chance of winning either first or second:

Gingrich: 75.1%
Paul: 65.5%
Romney: 42.2%

Hard work is paying off! Keep it up!

Oh and to you doubters (of Intrade), if you believe the market is wrong you can make money by correcting it. Put your money where your mouth is.

 

[69360]

The shares don't trade for enough money to matter, so people just do whatever with it. That's why it's not real.

 

[justatrey]

Ron Paul to win the 2012 Iowa Caucus 25.0%
Today's Change: +$0.57 (+29.5%)

 

[No Free Beer]

I provided a thread with information from a NYT's blog, which does a pretty good job at predicting outcomes.

here:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/12/04/how-safe-is-gingrichs-lead-in-iowa/

"If I were setting odds as of this morning, I might assign Mr. Gingrich about a 45 or 50 percent chance of winning Iowa, followed by Mr. Paul at 25 percent and Mr. Romney at 15 percent"

*cough*, Dr. Paul, not Mr.

Anyway, Ron (and Rand) need to push hard these finally weeks so he can SHOCK THE WORLD!

 

[RonPaulCult]

He's also leading to get a second place finish in NH (which would be great considering Mitt's stronghold)

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/?eventId=91109

 

[doronster195]

Today's Change: +$1.06 (+54.9%)

 

[J_White]

just wait for two weeks, the Grinch will start falling two like the previous frontrunners !!
just keep working - Call for Paul ,go door to door, talk to people, donate !!

 

[LibertyEagle]

phone from home, go door to door, be a Paulunteer !!

That's right. It doesn't do one dang thing to sit here and freak out. Do something constructive to get Paul up in the ratings.

 

[Esoteric]

Looks like it will be coming down a bit, based on the current bid/ask. Someone bought it up to 30% earlier today, it seems. Maybe the OP?