Insider Advantage Iowa: Romney 22.7%, Paul 22.4%, Santorum 18%

[J_White]

looks good, its a tight race people, keep working !
and help out tomorrow in the GOTV through the phone from home !

watch this in the meantime - ACLU Report Card Puts Ron Paul Above President Obama!

 

[White Bear Lake]

Youth turnout will be key. If it's at the baseline which seems to be about 11%, then this thing is a pure tossup between Romney and us. If 18-29 year old are excited for Paul, and turn out between 15% and 20% of all caucus goers, we have this won.

I'm predicting 18-29 year olds will be ~15% of the vote.

 

[Agorism]

This poll oversampled woman who Paul does poorly with.

 

[parocks]

That is because the youth just don't show up as much as the other age brackets. It's a fact of life. I said over a month ago that Paul needed to go after the Republican seniors to win Iowa. I guess no one bothered to listen. So now we are all just hoping the youth and liberals turn out? It's not how you win caucuses and primaries.

Oh, they did listen. Remember the "superbrochures" that were sent to the "supervoters"? Guess what? The "supervoters" aren't the young people, they're the old people.

How many hundreds of thousands of dollars were spent, once by contributions to revpac, to send a superbrochure and a copy of the For Liberty DVD and then to RPP to get the superbrochure in the hands of the supervoters, ie, old people? Did it work? Do the supervoters (old people) now like Ron Paul? The grassroots spent hundreds of thousands of dollars in Iowa to get old people to like Ron Paul. Did it work? Who knows? But the polls indicate not.

But who does like Ron Paul, a ton? 18-29 Males. What money has the grassroots spent to get those people who already like us to the polls? I have seen no evidence that any of that is happening, or has happened. I'm not saying that it isn't happening, just that I'm watching closely for those efforts, and encourage them, and chip in for them.

You know, there's nothing illegal about giving free beer to people in a bar. But we gave hundreds of thousands of dollars to the Federal Government to deliver mail to old people in Iowa, and we're at 8.7% with them.

I've been saying, over and over again, we need to get these 18-29s informed about the caucus process, get them to the caucus.

Walk out onto the streets tomorrow in Iowa. 3 out of every 4 guys 18-29 like Ron Paul. Are we spending any money to get them to the polls? I chipped in to the Facebook project, where we're telling young, male Iowans that the caucus is tomorrow, and that everyone can vote if they're 17y 2m old, and they should bring a driver's license with their current address.

I'm arguing about whether we should spend some money on getting more and better bands to the party this coming Saturday at Jillian's in Manchester, NH. No. The grassroots believes that they're message masters, and that their lit and tv spot have magical powers. Instead of the brute force GOTV of 18-29 males, which they could put some money into, they want to continue to mess with our message by putting out their own lit and tv spots.

You are flat wrong in saying that grassroots money doesn't go to trying to convince old people. All of it is spend on that.

Listen.

Old women want more government.

Young men want less government.

Ron Paul is all about less government.

Young Men like Ron Paul and Old Women don't, typically.

This isn't rocket science.

Almost all polls with crosstabs have shown this to be the case. Young men, the people who want less government, like Ron Paul, the candidate of less government.

 

[parocks]

Youth turnout will be key. If it's at the baseline which seems to be about 11%, then this thing is a pure tossup between Romney and us. If 18-29 year old are excited for Paul, and turn out between 15% and 20% of all caucus goers, we have this won.

I'm predicting 18-29 year olds will be ~15% of the vote.

Everywhere we go, every poll, shows that we get the young male vote. I think they'll be there for us tomorrow.

We spend a ton of money on "superbrochures". Why are our numbers so low with the people who got the superbrochures. Might those numbers we're looking at indicate that the superbrochures were at best a waste of money? Maybe we can figure out a way to spend that kind of money to get the young males who already like us to the polls in great numbers? And leave the messaging to the experts at the official campaign.

Again, I think they'll be there, but we (the grassroots) should not be doing what the official campaign does (yes, help them, as individual campaign volunteers), but the grassroots should focus on what campaigns traditionally don't do, brute force GOTV of 18-29 year olds.

I've been recommending that people on the ground in Iowa should, right now, have a ton of cash in their pockets. I've argued that RPP shouldn't be giving hundreds of thousands of dollars to the postal service, but to meetups, and let the meetups deliver the lit. Maybe it has happened, maybe there are thousands of dollars of walking around money waiting to be deployed. It probably isn't a good idea to announce your walking around money plan on a public forum, so maybe it's happening.

 

[parocks]

I am not doubting your numbers above. But I hardly doubt 22% of the Republican caucus goers are going to be 18-29 year olds. I also think it is foolish to completely rely on such demographic although an important one. If the Paul campaign made a one two punch sell by also going after seniors by telling them bringing home the troops will save SS, Medicare and Medicaid, we might be sitting a lot healthier tonight instead of a 3 way tie with the Santorum surge.

The superbrochures were targeted at "supervoters" or seniors. Does the superbrochure not mention social security enough? That's where our grassroots money went - to the superbrochures. It wasn't spend on getting 18-29 year old men to the polls that I'm aware of. Maybe it was.

 

[PauliticsPolitics]

I agree with parocks on this one.
Convincing Paul-liking slackers to vote can be easier than convincing Paul-hating voters to like Paul.
It's called changing the voter base, changing the party's demographic blocks to the blocks that favor Paul, specifically people 17-45.
Obviously we will take liberty lovers of all ages, but our message has proven successful to younger people.
We should not be afraid to play to our strong demographic.

 

[White Bear Lake]

Everywhere we go, every poll, shows that we get the young male vote. I think they'll be there for us tomorrow.

We spend a ton of money on "superbrochures". Why are our numbers so low with the people who got the superbrochures. Might those numbers we're looking at indicate that the superbrochures were at best a waste of money? Maybe we can figure out a way to spend that kind of money to get the young males who already like us to the polls in great numbers? And leave the messaging to the experts at the official campaign.

Again, I think they'll be there, but we (the grassroots) should not be doing what the official campaign does (yes, help them, as individual campaign volunteers), but the grassroots should focus on what campaigns traditionally don't do, brute force GOTV of 18-29 year olds.

I've been recommending that people on the ground in Iowa should, right now, have a ton of cash in their pockets. I've argued that RPP shouldn't be giving hundreds of thousands of dollars to the postal service, but to meetups, and let the meetups deliver the lit. Maybe it has happened, maybe there are thousands of dollars of walking around money waiting to be deployed. It probably isn't a good idea to announce your walking around money plan on a public forum, so maybe it's happening.

As someone who falls into the "18-29 year old male" category, I can confirm that Paul is popular with us. One of my bros is home for break from Iowa State, but he's driving down to Ames bright and early tomorrow to vote for Paul. And from what he has said, it sounds like there's plenty of other students from the Twin Cities and Chicago heading back to their colleges early tomorrow for the vote. Whether the campaign helps or not, we can get ourselves to the polls.

 

[parocks]

As someone who falls into the "18-29 year old male" category, I can confirm that Paul is popular with us. One of my bros is home for break from Iowa State, but he's driving down to Ames bright and early tomorrow to vote for Paul. And from what he has said, it sounds like there's plenty of other students from the Twin Cities and Chicago heading back to their colleges early tomorrow for the vote. Whether the campaign helps or not, we can get ourselves to the polls.

I'm optimistic that the 18-29 demo will show up. You're telling that story, and there are other stories to be told as well. I'm just arguing, I guess, that money is better spent on 18-29 male turnout than on 65+ persuasion.

 

[Kevin Smyth]

I'm optimistic that the 18-29 demo will show up. You're telling that story, and there are other stories to be told as well. I'm just arguing, I guess, that money is better spent on 18-29 male turnout than on 65+ persuasion.

The 65+ folks grew up on TV in the 1950's, they are hooked on it for life, and since TV poisons them against Ron Paul they don't like him, it is that simple. They are a waste of our time.

 

[rblgenius]

looks good, its a tight race people, keep working !
and help out tomorrow in the GOTV through the phone from home !

watch this in the meantime - ACLU Report Card Puts Ron Paul Above President Obama!

While I think this is great, most of the GOP hardcores do not like the ACLU. Best keep this on the down low and out of the IA caucus speeches

 

[SaulPaulinsky]

Keep it in your hip pocket for general elections or open primaries in liberal-ish states.

 

[The Binghamton Patriot]

The really sad thing about the 18-29 & 65+ numbers is its these 52% who are now responsible for taking care of those 65+'s. This crowd apparently doesn't mind voting away the financial future of their grandkids. Does anyone else see the irony in these numbers? Talk about proof of the "democracy/mob rules" and "voting themselves a paycheck."

I agree that it would be very nice to improve this number but if my mother in law is any indicator whatsoever then don't count on getting any support from this crowd. She loves to talk about how she supports Ron Paul and how he's the only one who makes sense while at the same time commenting on how much she prefers coming to my house to wash her clothes rather than using the laundromat in her complex because at my house its FREE (ahem... TINSTAAFL... I guess she thinks the tooth fairy or someone else pays the power/water bill and maintenance on the machine). Then again, she talks about all the FREE stuff at my house without realizing how insulting it is to me for her lack of consideration for how NOT FREE my monthly bills are!!!

And OMG, if one more reporter even mentions the words NEWS and LETTER in the same sentence you all will hear the justifiably angry scream of a woman who is past furious scorn and if there were any justice whatsoever in the world, said reporters armpits would be permanently infested by the fleas of a thousand camels!

I WANT THIS IOWA WIN SO BAD JUST TO SHOVE THIS NEWSLETTER CRAP DOWN THE THROATS OF EVERY SINGLE DISHONEST JOURNALIST WHO HAS DONE NOTHING BUT TALK ABOUT IT RATHER THAN WHAT IS REALLY IMPORTANT LIKE I DUNNO..... SAVING AMERICA FOR FUTURE GENERATIONS??!! (But I guess that stopped being important to those video ego maniacs a long LONG time ago).

excellent post. + rep for telling the truth.

 

[parocks]

The 65+ folks grew up on TV in the 1950's, they are hooked on it for life, and since TV poisons them against Ron Paul they don't like him, it is that simple. They are a waste of our time.

Old people and women like Government more than young people and men. Old women would not thrive under anarchy.

 

[jordie]

Scroll to the right to get the full image...

gives us a good idea on the demographics we do well and we need to improve.

NEED to improve with the 65+ crowd cause they generally get their info from the mainstream media, NOT the internet
NEED to improve with women


We do dominate the young voters and independents which could tip the scales in our favor as they did for Obama in Iowa in 2008.

There are a lot of undecided out there. Many people vote in family blocks too. So I'm hoping those younger people who are supporting Paul will convince their family (parents + grandparents) he is the one to support. I think many will be looking for *something* to push them over the edge for one candidate or another and a passionate family member could do that!

 

[jordie]

Young people turn out to vote when they are excited about a candidate. They didn't turn out for the Republicans last time because Obama was tugging at their heartstrings, and Huckabee, McCain and Mittens were.... ummm.... boring.


Rockstar Ron Paul is this year's Obama in that regard. He has appeal, and the fact that over 50 percent (!!!!) of young voters support him proves that.

This. Very much this. I would say the youth vote was probably very low for the last republican election. The youth vote will be high this time around.

Also this time, even if people are supporting Obama, they don't NEED to go vote for him because he is going to win the democratic caucus, so you'll have people who would want to see a Paul v. Obama match up going into bat for Paul at this moment in the race.