I don't see the problem

[Sematary]

Man, I am so glad many of you weren't here 4 years ago. I can't IMAGINE what these forums would have looked like back then. We would have had orgasms if Ron even APPROACHED 20% in ANY primary or caucus never mind EVERY primary or caucus (we won't talk about Florida - they suck anyway). I'm reveling in the success. Even though the overall voter turnout for Dr. Paul is not where we' like it to be, I see something coming out of these early states that we didn't have nearly as much of last time - organization and delegates going to (in this case) the county convention.

Sure, we need a win. I think Maine is going to be a turning point for the campaign - I really think we have a shot at winning that one. But With Grinch and Frosh staying in the race, the chances for a brokered convention get better with every single contest. And I know - absolutely KNOW, that is what the campaign is looking for and why they are going after the delegates.

Many of you seem to think that Americans in all their lazy glory are paying attention - they are NOT. They are not paying attention to politics. They don't even know what the NDAA is or what SOPA is nor do they care. Far more people are aware now than 4 years ago but not nearly as many as we would like - and the campaign knows it and that is why they formulated this plan -

So stop this bullshit. Revel in our successes rather than lamenting something that is unattainable (at least for now) in the first place.

 

[ChristianAnarchist]

Amen...

 

[V3n]

Agreed. Thank you.

 

[MozoVote]

Someone said what I've been thinking for a month, now. +rep

 

[Fredom101]

Man, I am so glad many of you weren't here 4 years ago. I can't IMAGINE what these forums would have looked like back then. We would have had orgasms if Ron even APPROACHED 20% in ANY primary or caucus never mind EVERY primary or caucus (we won't talk about Florida - they suck anyway). I'm reveling in the success. Even though the overall voter turnout for Dr. Paul is not where we' like it to be, I see something coming out of these early states that we didn't have nearly as much of last time - organization and delegates going to (in this case) the county convention.

Sure, we need a win. I think Maine is going to be a turning point for the campaign - I really think we have a shot at winning that one. But With Grinch and Frosh staying in the race, the chances for a brokered convention get better with every single contest. And I know - absolutely KNOW, that is what the campaign is looking for and why they are going after the delegates.

Many of you seem to think that Americans in all their lazy glory are paying attention - they are NOT. They are not paying attention to politics. They don't even know what the NDAA is or what SOPA is nor do they care. Far more people are aware now than 4 years ago but not nearly as many as we would like - and the campaign knows it and that is why they formulated this plan -

So stop this bullshit. Revel in our successes rather than lamenting something that is unattainable (at least for now) in the first place.

Amen!
Your claims that people aren't paying attention is spot on for most of the people in my world. Most people I know have
NO IDEA about what is going on or what Romney or Paul stand for. We are a tiny minority that actually pays attention. I'm not saying we're better than them, but to me MAD about "only" 20% in NV is ludicrous!

 

[jacmicwag]

It all takes time. The glass half full can make for better sleeping at night.

 

[newbitech]

Man, I am so glad many of you weren't here 4 years ago. I can't IMAGINE what these forums would have looked like back then. We would have had orgasms if Ron even APPROACHED 20% in ANY primary or caucus never mind EVERY primary or caucus (we won't talk about Florida - they suck anyway). I'm reveling in the success. Even though the overall voter turnout for Dr. Paul is not where we' like it to be, I see something coming out of these early states that we didn't have nearly as much of last time - organization and delegates going to (in this case) the county convention.

Sure, we need a win. I think Maine is going to be a turning point for the campaign - I really think we have a shot at winning that one. But With Grinch and Frosh staying in the race, the chances for a brokered convention get better with every single contest. And I know - absolutely KNOW, that is what the campaign is looking for and why they are going after the delegates.

Many of you seem to think that Americans in all their lazy glory are paying attention - they are NOT. They are not paying attention to politics. They don't even know what the NDAA is or what SOPA is nor do they care. Far more people are aware now than 4 years ago but not nearly as many as we would like - and the campaign knows it and that is why they formulated this plan -

So stop this bullshit. Revel in our successes rather than lamenting something that is unattainable (at least for now) in the first place.

Not to be a party pooper, I agree with what you said in the beginning. There is success to be had in losing. The moral victories are certainly piling up.

As far as the other two candidates staying in the race and increasing the chances of a brokered convention. I don't think so. It's 50%+1 that Romney needs as far as delegates. Where Gingrich and Santorum do enough damage to keep Romney from raking in 50%+1, they are also doing enough damage to keep Paul from racking up delegates.

Santorum won't win a winner take all state. Ron Paul won't win a winner take all state. So the battle for at least 50% of the delegates comes down to Gingrich and Romney. Gingrich stole S.C. from Romney, but Romney absolutely demolished Gingrich in Florida. Gingrich has performed rather pathetically in the other half of the race, caucus style proportional delegate allocations. Gingrich has no momentum and is running out of life. Romney, by winning hands down 3 of the first 5 states in what amount to absolute landslides has the air of inevitability.

Think about the emerging trend of much lower turnout. This trend started in Florida and has continued to Nevada. This I attribute directly to the dominance of the Romney campaign. Besides the hardcore supporters of ALL campaigns, the soft support is starting to slack off. This gives a distinct advantage to Romney because he will be able to prop up his soft support on the simple of idea that he is the inevitable nominee.

You are right, the not Romney vote will be split and some delegates will be spread around, but if those spread around delegates amount to less than 50%, it hardly matters. It's not enough for Gingrich to come in and take ALL of the remaining winner take all states. He is the only one who has any small chance of doing that. Romney needs to come in last in many caucus/proportional states including accumulating NO delegates.

No campaign is doing enough to stop Romney. Gingrich has at least put in the effort to some degree of success. Gingrich is going to reinvent his campaign yet again. It's time for Ron Paul to reinvent his campaign. That should have happened already IMO.

There is a problem if we are wanting to challenge the democrats in Nov.

If we just want to spread the message, mission accomplished.

 

[cavalier973]

Paul was at 9% in the polls going into NV. That's what CNN was reporting as the caucuses were being conducted. If he comes in at 18%, that's double the polling, which is good.

And though I'm disturbed that Gingrich, with no real campaign to speak of, came in second, but I am extremely relieved that Paul didn't come in behind Santorum.

 

[The One]

Paul was at 9% in the polls going into NV. That's what CNN was reporting as the caucuses were being conducted. If he comes in at 18%, that's double the polling, which is good.

And though I'm disturbed that Gingrich, with no real campaign to speak of, came in second, but I am extremely relieved that Paul didn't come in behind Santorum.

Who said Gingrich came in second?

 

[Edward]

We would have had orgasms if Ron even APPROACHED 20% in ANY primary or caucus never mind EVERY primary or caucus

He means "Rongasm".

 

[Liberty74]

Paul was at 9% in the polls going into NV. That's what CNN was reporting as the caucuses were being conducted. If he comes in at 18%, that's double the polling, which is good.

PPP had Paul at 15% and with the margin of error they were dead on including how the numbers would turn out for the others too.

 

[No Free Beer]

We are on pace to get roughly 150 delegates, maybe a little more. That is nothing. So enough with this stealth delegate crap.

We need a big win for momentum.

Maine is our moment.

Maine is it.

If we don't win there, I am afraid the nomination is over for Dr. Paul.

Then it will become strictly about the message.

 

[MsDoodahs]

Thanks, Sematary.

 

[Sematary]

We are on pace to get roughly 150 delegates, maybe a little more. That is nothing. So enough with this stealth delegate crap.

We need a big win for momentum.

Maine is our moment.

Maine is it.

If we don't win there, I am afraid the nomination is over for Dr. Paul.

Then it will become strictly about the message.

You aren't thinking far enough ahead. Sure, he may end up with "pick a number" delegates that are committed to him, but far more of the delegates at the national convention WILL vote for him once the delegates are released. I don't buy this "inevitability" crap and for the record it has ALWAYS been about the message.

 

[Sematary]

Thanks, Sematary.

That's what I'm here for.
Good to see you (so to speak) by the way

 

[phil4truth]

I think it is about the message and always has been. In that regard this campaign is a huge success compared with 08 figures and shows a real awakening in the people.

But we need to be real too, we are taking on the whole establishment! They are not going to allow Ron Paul to be the nominee, end of. And to be fair Paul doesn't think he will be.

This is a process and may take another 8 years before we take the White House, but we will take it so be patient and I know its hard to be.

Romney or Obama will give us another 4 years of more of the same thus boosting our numbers massively for 2016 and making us a serious force. If we don't get Rand in then 2020 it will be.

Freedom is popular but it will take time to secure.

 

[tbone717]

Think about the emerging trend of much lower turnout. This trend started in Florida and has continued to Nevada. This I attribute directly to the dominance of the Romney campaign. Besides the hardcore supporters of ALL campaigns, the soft support is starting to slack off. This gives a distinct advantage to Romney because he will be able to prop up his soft support on the simple of idea that he is the inevitable nominee.

If we define soft support as voters who make their decisions in the last few days before the election then we can see how that soft support is drying up for all candidates.

Per the exit/entrance polls here are the percentage of voters that decided "in the last few days"

Iowa: 46%
NH: 46%
SC: 55%
FL: 26%
NV: 24%

Of note that the rather high percentage of soft support in SC was likely due to the race becoming a major battle between Newt & Romney in that week leading up to the vote. 44% of that soft support went to Newt, 26% to Mitt.

So yes, the numbers do show that soft support is waning. Good observation on your part +rep.

 

[tbone717]

We are on pace to get roughly 150 delegates, maybe a little more. That is nothing. So enough with this stealth delegate crap.

But, but, but it's going to be a brokered convention and all of the delegates at the convention are really closet Ron Paul supporters because none of the other campaigns have any insight to this whatsoever. So we don't need to win a single race and are going to surprise everyone and steal this in Tampa.

/sarcasm

 

[Butchie]

You aren't thinking far enough ahead. Sure, he may end up with "pick a number" delegates that are committed to him, but far more of the delegates at the national convention WILL vote for him once the delegates are released. I don't buy this "inevitability" crap and for the record it has ALWAYS been about the message.

We keep getting told these things over and over. Supposedly, despite polls, we were going to kick ass in the primaries because all those polls were just "land line" polls to 80yr olds, but gee, first primary comes, what happens? We get a rather embarassing third. Now here we are getting 3rd and 4th out of 4. It seems to me maybe some are just refusing to accept reality which is this, for us to win:

1. Americans will have to gain 50 IQ points sometime in the next few days.

2. Ron will have to learn to speak to all the brain-dead voters out there in a way they can comprehend, but it may even be to late for that at this point.

Niether seems likely to happen.

 

[Sean]

Amen!
Your claims that people aren't paying attention is spot on for most of the people in my world. Most people I know have
NO IDEA about what is going on or what Romney or Paul stand for. We are a tiny minority that actually pays attention. I'm not saying we're better than them, but to me MAD about "only" 20% in NV is ludicrous!

With such low voter turnout Ron Paul might have been able to "WIN" Nevada or come a very close second. We expect more in 2012 than in 2008. We are trying to win here. That is why people are upset with the way the campaign is being run. After all the strategy was to skip SC and FL, which I think was very flawed, to win the caucus states.