torchbearer
Lizard King
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oh, I got confirmation that all the other candidates in the state will be forming a coalition slate to try and beat us since none of them can do it on their own.
How Ron Paul Wins the Nomination (full nomination schedule, delegate #'s, and analysis)
mmadness
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Counter with stealth and numbers.
Sucks. Same as last time. Was hoping they'd be at each others' throats a little more, guess not. Hope you have a plan. Don't tell us what it is
Was it the case last time that the LA caucus were somewhat like a primary in that people could come, vote for a slate, and leave? And the establishment handed out paper with a "family values" slate of delegates to vote for?
torchbearer
Lizard King
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the process is the same, the voting list will be just names of delegates. people will have booths setup pushing "slates"
last time we lost to the Ronald Reagan/Pro-Life slate. but we didn't have any campaign involvement and not much organization. we lost with 40% after they threw out tons of our votes.
this time, their slate is called "the Louisiana Conservative Coalition", we have campaign support. very awesome organization and 10 times the people involved. it will be an epic battle and we aren't going for just a win, we are going for an ALL OUT win. plus we have people on the ballot for party positions across the board.
i've already won one party position and will be on the ballot for a lead party position in march. i'm not the only one.
louisiana will be an all out brawl, and we are coming with knives out.
last time we lost to the Ronald Reagan/Pro-Life slate. but we didn't have any campaign involvement and not much organization. we lost with 40% after they threw out tons of our votes.
this time, their slate is called "the Louisiana Conservative Coalition", we have campaign support. very awesome organization and 10 times the people involved. it will be an epic battle and we aren't going for just a win, we are going for an ALL OUT win. plus we have people on the ballot for party positions across the board.
i've already won one party position and will be on the ballot for a lead party position in march. i'm not the only one.
louisiana will be an all out brawl, and we are coming with knives out.
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I don't know how devious we need to be, but I'm inclined to print out sheets that look just like whatever the opposition has with "the Louisiana Conservative Coalition" or whatever copy is present on them but with pro-paul delegates listed. i'd go to kinkos and have the paper matched and everything and have respectable looking older supporters passing them out.
I don't know if that's really possible or desirable, I just know I get angry with the tricks and slimy things the opposition pulls.
I don't know if that's really possible or desirable, I just know I get angry with the tricks and slimy things the opposition pulls.
torchbearer
Lizard King
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unofficially, the trick will be tried by both sides.
a caucus position called poll watcher will be walking around like an undercover cop looking for this kind of stuff. the caucus could get bloody.
mmadness
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Pretty sure this was done last time by the other team and in other states. It's an unfair game - you have to play it.
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american.swan
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What are the Orwellian Pigs thinking? First off, they know Paul's going to the convention. He won't drop out until the fat lady, cough, the delegates are counted. He did this in 2008. He'll do it again. McCain could ignore Paul. Paul wasn't popular enough.
Now, the Pigs have to take Paul seriously. The Pigs know 55-70% of the GOP can't vote for Romney. Romney, or Mittens, is highly likely to lose to Paul one-on-one. The Pigs can't take that chance. So how about another candidate? Maybe Newt. But again, sending Newt one-on-one verses Paul is highly risky.
What about Mittens and Newt verses Paul? Well, the electorate would be divided enough for Mittens to win some states. If Newt runs away with the nomination, then Romney stays in until Paul can't win. But what about Paul's delegates? If he has too many delegates, what do the Orwellian Pigs do?
What about Mittens and Newt going all the way to the convention verses Paul? Could this keep Paul marginalized enough to lower his delegate count? With an entertaining, media-loving convention the Pigs could still get their guy, Romney nominated. (Newt wouldn't beat Obama anyways) Romney might.
I think the Pigs will take Mittens and Newt all the way to the convention, if need be, to keep Paul as marginalized as possible. The Pigs can get Romney nominated at the convention....they cut the mic off before, they can do it again.
Now, the Pigs have to take Paul seriously. The Pigs know 55-70% of the GOP can't vote for Romney. Romney, or Mittens, is highly likely to lose to Paul one-on-one. The Pigs can't take that chance. So how about another candidate? Maybe Newt. But again, sending Newt one-on-one verses Paul is highly risky.
What about Mittens and Newt verses Paul? Well, the electorate would be divided enough for Mittens to win some states. If Newt runs away with the nomination, then Romney stays in until Paul can't win. But what about Paul's delegates? If he has too many delegates, what do the Orwellian Pigs do?
What about Mittens and Newt going all the way to the convention verses Paul? Could this keep Paul marginalized enough to lower his delegate count? With an entertaining, media-loving convention the Pigs could still get their guy, Romney nominated. (Newt wouldn't beat Obama anyways) Romney might.
I think the Pigs will take Mittens and Newt all the way to the convention, if need be, to keep Paul as marginalized as possible. The Pigs can get Romney nominated at the convention....they cut the mic off before, they can do it again.
bump
Here is the turnout factor from 2008, and a results comparison with 2012 (all results from before Feb 10, when most candidates were still in, listed by date):
caucus:
Iowa 10% (21% in 2012)
Nevada 14%
Maine 18%
Alaska 17%
Colorado 9%
Minnesota 16%
Montana 25%
North Dakota 21%
Washington 22%
Kansas 11%
primary:
New Hampshire 8% (23% in 2012)
Michagan 6%
South Carolina 4% (13% in 2012)
Florida 3%
Alabama 3%
Tennessee 6%
Connecticut 4%
Arizona 4%
Georgia 3%
Delaware 4%
California 4%
Arkansas 5%
etc.
The lowest caucus was 9%, the highest primary was 8%.
The highest caucus was 25%, the lowest primary was 3%.
Turnout can make a huge difference in the poorly attended caucuses.
For example, in Nevada we got second place in 2008 with less than 0.25% of the population's vote. Our 4th place SC finish had 1.5% of the population's vote.
Looking percentage of actual voters (not population), we were getting 3-6% in primaries in 2008. We got 14% in nevada. Now we are getting 13% in SC (primary). What will Nevada be this time?
Phoning and donating is how we increase turnout.
Here is the turnout factor from 2008, and a results comparison with 2012 (all results from before Feb 10, when most candidates were still in, listed by date):
caucus:
Iowa 10% (21% in 2012)
Nevada 14%
Maine 18%
Alaska 17%
Colorado 9%
Minnesota 16%
Montana 25%
North Dakota 21%
Washington 22%
Kansas 11%
primary:
New Hampshire 8% (23% in 2012)
Michagan 6%
South Carolina 4% (13% in 2012)
Florida 3%
Alabama 3%
Tennessee 6%
Connecticut 4%
Arizona 4%
Georgia 3%
Delaware 4%
California 4%
Arkansas 5%
etc.
The lowest caucus was 9%, the highest primary was 8%.
The highest caucus was 25%, the lowest primary was 3%.
Turnout can make a huge difference in the poorly attended caucuses.
For example, in Nevada we got second place in 2008 with less than 0.25% of the population's vote. Our 4th place SC finish had 1.5% of the population's vote.
Looking percentage of actual voters (not population), we were getting 3-6% in primaries in 2008. We got 14% in nevada. Now we are getting 13% in SC (primary). What will Nevada be this time?
Phoning and donating is how we increase turnout.
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So I've been thinking about this scenario. Suppose the convention is brokered and we have 30-40% of the delgates. I think it would be unlikely for the others to pick Ron Paul -- maybe we can convince 15% of Newt/Romney supporters to go for Rand. Obviously I'm working to get >50% of the delegates to the convention for Ron Paul but I could live with that.
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From the main article (notice the last section):
"Scenario 3: Brokered Convention
This one is tough. That is because it is hard to say whose delegates would go where.
A brokered convention means that we would have at least two candidates go into the convention with sizable pluralities but neither a majority, or perhaps three candidates do very well and have large numbers.
We could assume that if it were three candidates, it might be Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and either Gingrich or Cain or Perry. If Ron Paul does as well as we assumed him to do, he has 821 delegates through the process itself, with 30% of the vote in non-key-delegate states and 466 delegates from the others.
If Ron Paul goes into the convention with 821, or 35.9% of the delegates,
and Mitt Romney goes in with 880, or 38.4% of the delegates,
and Third Candidate (Perry/Cain/Romney) plus the others go in with 586, or 25.6% of the delegates,
then it really starts to get interesting. Remember, you need 1,144 to win.
At that point, someone has to give. Sometime or another. Several interesting things could occur, none of which could be easily predicted, and not all of which are positive. However, such is the nature of a brokered convention: it's dirty.
1. Third Candidate drops out, Ron Paul picks up a 323 of the released delegates, and wins.
2. Third Candidate drops out, Romney picks up 264 of the released delegates, and wins.
3. Romney drops out, Third candidate picks up vast majority of Romney's delegates plus other candidates'.
4. Romney drops out, Ron Paul picks up some of Romney's delegates (323 only, remember) plus others' and wins.
5. Balloting goes on and on until state party rules either release delegates or delegates change their minds and their votes. In this case, all hell breaks loose, but this is where organization really benefits Ron Paul. Because in reality, a number of "Romney delegates" can be Paul supporters who got through the process. Once their state rules release them at the national convention, they could vote for Ron Paul. However, if they are bound to vote for Romney, their votes go to him regardless."
