Ivash,
Surely there's no possible way that Ron Paul can get the 1,144 required delegates to win the nomination on the 1st vote. We all accept that.
Our goal is to rack up as many delegates as we can. From most of what I've heard (not just in RP territory) Santorum has been very unorganized. He might be getting better as of late, but I don't really hear about it in Missouri. This would tell me that he's just not fit to make it at all.
I think most of America knows Gingrich doesn't have a shot.
Romney... well... he's getting a lot of votes, but I don't meet many Romney supporters at all. That's not a speculation of a nation-wide theory, just my personal observance.
I also am speculative of everything I read, including this site. And currently, I don't think we're anywhere but 4th in delegates, but ONLY because the delegates haven't been assigned in the caucus states. I do think we are competing well though and are on pace to finish well within pack (maybe 2nd) if you were to add in the caucus delegate spots NOW.... now when they come in, some most likely after many of the winner take all states, 2nd will be a tough one. But by then, it might only be a 3 man race... back to that Santorum unorganization...
Now... with all that said. Your biggest argument, that the GOP won't allow it. If they find a way to block Ron Paul, that will be a huge victory for Paul's campaign. The GOP would be finished. A 3rd party run would have a much greater chance. And the process will have changed.