Mr Tansill
Member
- Joined
- Apr 23, 2009
- Messages
- 431
Look, let me try as succinctly as possible, because I know how important that is to you, explain my whole thinking from top to bottom in one post. Can I do it? Let's find out.
1. People have many different ideas about how things work. About what is real.
2. How do we determine which is correct? There are many ways, and at least a few different good ways.
3. One good way turns out to be the empirical scientific method: hypothesize, test, replicate results, conclude, repeat.
4. There are other good ways of determining truth too, for example logical deduction, but we won't get into them now.
5. The method of 3., the empirical scientific method, only works if a hypothesis is testable. More precisely: disprovable. If one cannot devise a test to disprove his hypothesis, one is stuck in the hypothesis stage. Hypothesis alone -- a.k.a. bald assertion -- is one method for determining truth, but not (IMHO) a very good one.
6. For many of the elements of the secular origin hypotheses (plural) which have become current and popular the past hundred to two hundred years, no one has yet devised a test to disprove them. *They have never been tested.* Very important. Some of the elements, it is difficult to see how they could be tested. They may not be testable. Thus they are stuck in the rut described in 5.: hypothesis alone. They are thus not technically a part of the method known as the empirical scientific method. They are not part of that truth-seeking project.
7. They are just stories.
8. How do we determine the truth of stories, or bald assertions, if we can't use the empirical scientific method? Hark back to 2. and 4.: there are other ways.
9. One way is to assess probabilities, harnessing what we do know of reality. The less probable a story is, the less likely it is to be true. For example, let's say a murder takes place and Mr. Monk deduces that the killer is 6'5" from a crease in the blinds or something -- a very good lead! Because a very small percentage of people are that tall. Now why assume that is true rather than another possibility that the killer was wearing stilts? Because although few people are 6'5", even fewer go around wearing stilts! It's a possibility, but it's extremely far-fetched.
10. Assessing probabilities cannot positively disprove any possibilities, just as induction cannot prove anything. There are possibilities at every turn of the case; nothing Mr. Monk says is technically airtight. For every one explanation, there are ten other extremely ludicrous ones, such as that advanced aliens came down and did it and then framed someone.
11. Clearly probability assessment is one useful truth-seeking tool. It does not, indeed cannot, ever disprove anything (this is your repeated point, which I have repeatedly agreed with). This inability does not, however, make it completely irrelevant (this is my point, which.... never mind). It serves particularly well for reconstructing the past.
12. In conclusion.... what's the conclusion? I haven't really had one up to now, but every line of reasoning needs a good conclusion. Hmm, lets see, how about: Every method has its weaknesses. Perhaps we can best get at truth by being willing to apply all of them, as best we can, each to the realm and situation to which it is best suited.
Nothing about the above is succinct. I read that, and I placed in bold text, your statements that I think could actually be turned into propositions, and think that distills your argument to the basic points you're making. Can you say if that's what you're getting at? In any case, here's what I got:
1. Empirical scientific statements must be testable.
2. Nothing in the group of "abiogenesis" theories is testable.
3. Therefore it is just a story, the same as any other story. The same as my story.
That is what I get from the above. and I agree with #1, only. Number 2 might be currently true, but they are, in theory and in principle, testable. Same as was the case of Einstein's theory of relativity back in the day. He developed that theory, which then suggested many tests, and even though some of those tests were beyond current scientific instrumentation to test, it was still a testable theory. Here's something else - ANY proposition is testable. Here's the test - just try to make a proposition, and it is immediately possible to state a test of it (in principle).
Coming to your statements above (#9, 10, and 11), I'm glad you are finally stating what I've been trying to point out for some time:
One, that:
Assessing probabilities cannot positively disprove any possibilities
Two, that:
Clearly probability assessment is one useful truth-seeking tool. It does not, indeed cannot, ever disprove anything
These statements DO, however stand in contradistinction to your other previous points that improbability does rule out certain outcomes:
One:
The current proposed models of how DNA, or more promising, RNA, forms are zillions upon zillions of orders of magnitude too improbable to happen. That's how we know the models are wrong and why abiogenesisists are working on it.
So probability has everything to do with it. It usually does.
Two:
It just doesn't work. According to our current understanding, there may not even be any mechanism that *could* work, at all, ever, even giving infinite time to infinite primordial ooze. Going back to Sunny Tuft's bridge game, it would be like getting a hand of 200 King Kandy cards that were alive and self-aware and talked incessantly to you.
1) You can't get a hand of 200 cards in bridge
2) There are no King Kandy cards in a bridge deck, they belong to a different game called Candy Land
3) The artificial intelligence technology that would make the cards self-aware does not exist
4) Talking incessantly is against the rules of bridge
And yes, I did get your original point much earlier, which was that you want to reduce everyone else's description of the universe to a story - this goes back to my post about word abuse and concept massage that seeks to put two things on the same footing which are really qualitatively different.
Here's the truth. Here's the actual bottom line. Can you take it? Can you handle it? No one has an advantage. No metaphysics that *I* can comprehend is going to solve the origin question.
But that is not true. There is nothing in the religious creation story that places it on an equal footing to those "other" stories which are subject to self correction, modification, and replacement from other stories (i.e. science). Religion is Newton rejecting Einstein. Scientific "stories" are descriptions of physical reality which MUST conform to Mathematics and Physics.
I'll share my one truth about truth: It must be self-evident. It must be that I could discover it all by myself, in absence of input from other humans. If the bible is true, I must be able to come to each of its conclusions without someone handing it to me on Sunday morning. No human in a vacuum would ever come to "discover" that Jesus was the one true son of God, etc.