Here's why I hate the Boston Globe

[FluffyUnbound]

http://www.boston.com/news/daily/23/globepoll.pdf

In their poll today of NH, they give Paul 8%. [Page 41]

But their sample assumes that SIX TIMES as many registered Republicans as independents will vote in the primary.

Out of the 329 registered Republicans in the sample, Paul got 6% or 20 votes.

Out of the 65 independents in the sample, Paul got 17% or 11 votes.

But there's just no way the total vote will break down that way.

Historically it's more likely that there will be almost an even split among the voters between registered and independent.

If you normalize for this, Paul would draw around 12%. If you also normalize the other candidate totals, Paul would be in third.

It's BS.

 

[JWallace]

http://www.boston.com/news/daily/23/globepoll.pdf

In their poll today of NH, they give Paul 8%. [Page 41]

But their sample assumes that SIX TIMES as many registered Republicans as independents will vote in the primary.

Out of the 329 registered Republicans in the sample, Paul got 6% or 20 votes.

Out of the 65 independents in the sample, Paul got 17% or 11 votes.

But there's just no way the total vote will break down that way.

Historically it's more likely that there will be almost an even split among the voters between registered and independent.

If you normalize for this, Paul would draw around 12%. If you also normalize the other candidate totals, Paul would be in third.

It's BS.

I feel your pain, but I think the typical NH primary observer will see the Globe's flaw.

One can name a long list of traditional Republican candidates who have gone into NH expecting a certain result while leaning heavily the GOP base only to be totally dismantled by an overwhelming independent vote.

That the Boston Globe's polling methodology hasn't/doesn't take that into account points out how useless and out of touch it is as a paper. Personally, I gave up reading the Globe years ago when the Internet provided me access to news from elsewhere.

 

[jgmaynard]

Six times as many Rs as Is in the NH R primary??? Where do they GET that stuff???

If candidates are planning on winning on the R or D vote in NH, they are in trouble. We Is rule school here.

JM