Okie RP fan
Member
- Joined
- Sep 30, 2011
- Messages
- 3,695
First off, I am creating this thread to give a simple report from my own observations and speculation prior to Super Tuesday. I know these forums will be bustling come Tuesday, so I wanted to create this ahead of time. Also, I am not searching for a ton of links to provide. It's late, and I have a fairly decent grip of what I am talking about, so, search around for verification if you want.
Basic information:
-Closed Primary (some radio stations were reporting that it is an open primary. I've received no information stating this from the Ron Paul HQ in Tulsa).
-43 total delegates
-40 "soft pledge delegates"
-Winner take all
Source: http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/OK-R
Basically, if I had to place money on a candidate in Oklahoma, it would be Rick Santorum. He visited Oklahoma about a month ago and drew crowds of about 1,500, and 1,000 in OKC and Tulsa, respectively (if memory serves me correctly). As many know, Oklahoma is very conservative. As of 2008, we've been called "The Reddest State in the Country" due to the fact that Oklahoma was the only state not to have at least ONE county vote for Obama in 2008; all counties went to McCain.
That being said, we are also the "Buckle of the Bible Belt" and if anyone turns out to vote, it's the older generation Christians. A recent Rasmussen poll (within the last few days) had Santorum winning Oklahoma with 41% and Romney in second with 21%. Other polls that I've come across or glanced at had about the same, with Paul taking dead last, garnering no more than 10% (although Dr. Paul came to OKC a week ago and a crowd of about 2,000 from across the state showed up).
The general sense that I am getting is that people around here (I live in the suburbs of Tulsa) have no clue about Paul, and many church goers are more aware of Santorum or Romney than anyone. Santorum signs are EVERYWHERE (I've seen probably around 75-100 driving around town) and on practically every corner it seems around Tulsa and the suburbs. However, Paul signs are definitely out in force and are easily the second most in the area. If I had to put a number on it, I'd say Santorum signs outnumber Paul signs 8:1, while I've seen two Romney signs in the past week.
On the sign issue, Paul signs are being snatched as quickly as they are put out. I put one out four days ago and it was gone within five hours. I've had three signs stolen along major roadways at this point, while Santorum signs remain untouched (I'm looking at you, Santorum supporters).
Lastly is advertising. Paul is doing no advertising that I am aware of. Gingrich and Romney are running radio ads like they're going out of style. Romney's PAC is also running T.V. ads. I can't remember right now if I've seen Santorum ads on television, but I'm almost positive I've heard at least one radio ad in the last couple days.
So, that all being said, I'm expecting good numbers for Paul compared to 2008 (11,000+ votes and in last) but won't expect a popular win. We have delegates lined up and ready and should do pretty well (I've seen some threads posted regarding issues in Oklahoma County...).
Source for 2008 results: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#val=OK
So, I know that was lengthy, but it was a report! I hope I'm off or plain wrong on some of speculations regarding a Santorum sweep in the Sooner State, but won't count on it. I'll keep this thread bumped for people to see ahead of Tuesday, thanks so much for reading!
Ron Paul Revolution!
Basic information:
-Closed Primary (some radio stations were reporting that it is an open primary. I've received no information stating this from the Ron Paul HQ in Tulsa).
-43 total delegates
-40 "soft pledge delegates"
-Winner take all
Source: http://www.thegreenpapers.com/P12/OK-R
Basically, if I had to place money on a candidate in Oklahoma, it would be Rick Santorum. He visited Oklahoma about a month ago and drew crowds of about 1,500, and 1,000 in OKC and Tulsa, respectively (if memory serves me correctly). As many know, Oklahoma is very conservative. As of 2008, we've been called "The Reddest State in the Country" due to the fact that Oklahoma was the only state not to have at least ONE county vote for Obama in 2008; all counties went to McCain.
That being said, we are also the "Buckle of the Bible Belt" and if anyone turns out to vote, it's the older generation Christians. A recent Rasmussen poll (within the last few days) had Santorum winning Oklahoma with 41% and Romney in second with 21%. Other polls that I've come across or glanced at had about the same, with Paul taking dead last, garnering no more than 10% (although Dr. Paul came to OKC a week ago and a crowd of about 2,000 from across the state showed up).
The general sense that I am getting is that people around here (I live in the suburbs of Tulsa) have no clue about Paul, and many church goers are more aware of Santorum or Romney than anyone. Santorum signs are EVERYWHERE (I've seen probably around 75-100 driving around town) and on practically every corner it seems around Tulsa and the suburbs. However, Paul signs are definitely out in force and are easily the second most in the area. If I had to put a number on it, I'd say Santorum signs outnumber Paul signs 8:1, while I've seen two Romney signs in the past week.
On the sign issue, Paul signs are being snatched as quickly as they are put out. I put one out four days ago and it was gone within five hours. I've had three signs stolen along major roadways at this point, while Santorum signs remain untouched (I'm looking at you, Santorum supporters).
Lastly is advertising. Paul is doing no advertising that I am aware of. Gingrich and Romney are running radio ads like they're going out of style. Romney's PAC is also running T.V. ads. I can't remember right now if I've seen Santorum ads on television, but I'm almost positive I've heard at least one radio ad in the last couple days.
So, that all being said, I'm expecting good numbers for Paul compared to 2008 (11,000+ votes and in last) but won't expect a popular win. We have delegates lined up and ready and should do pretty well (I've seen some threads posted regarding issues in Oklahoma County...).
Source for 2008 results: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/state/#val=OK
So, I know that was lengthy, but it was a report! I hope I'm off or plain wrong on some of speculations regarding a Santorum sweep in the Sooner State, but won't count on it. I'll keep this thread bumped for people to see ahead of Tuesday, thanks so much for reading!
Ron Paul Revolution!
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