GREAT article.. Upset prediction: Rand's Millennial Iowa strategy could actually work!

[Valli6]

Caucus is on a Monday, February 1.

They can hold a massive pro-Rand Bash on Friday, recooperate on Saturday, warm-up/get-psyched on Sunday.

 

[kbs021]

That doesn't pass the grade school math test.

About 130,000 will caucus in IA. It will take about 30,000 to win. Rand is polling about 5%. So lets say 6500 polled voters. Now here is the where the fuzzy math comes in. It seems that some are assuming these alleged 10k students are unpolled. Even if we make that assumption and every single one of them shows up, that gives Rand 10k plus 6.5k for 16.5k. This prefect storm would give him a best of 3rd, there is no path to victory. In reality, the unreliable kids will stay home, go to a bar and get drunk, or whatever and Rand will finish 5th or so. Which isn't bad considering.

The 10k is only part of the puzzle.. You are assuming the 5 percent is correct.. Here are two things I have that have happened THIS week to counter act that argument. The DMR poll that had Rand at 5 percent, asked the question who did you support in 2012.. 31 percent said romney, 14 percent said Santorum.. 5 percent said Ron Paul... Yea.. Ron Paul 2012 supporters aren't being polled AND the youth vote aren't being polled. If they show up we win. SIMPLE AS THAT. Part two.. Concerned American voters pac (who have had door knockers on the ground in Iowa since June-July) Have identified 37,700 potential voters in Iowa. This probably isn't counting the college vote... regardless, we will win if we GOTV. Simple as that.

 

[simon1911]

We've got this guys and gals. History in the making!

 

[jkob]

Cruz is finished if he falls below 2nd in Iowa

I'm too much of a poll junkie but I really am curious to see how this barrage against Cruz has effected his numbers and if they've gone down as I expect then to who?

 

[derek4ever]

With all this good news (which I hope continues), I've got a very important question. Do we have these students already in a list saying they're going to vote for Rand, no matter what?

 

[twomp]

The students cannot be relied upon. The 17-29 demo is always around the 15% mark when it comes to voting. I think Obama got it to 18%.

Whoever wins the OLD vote 45 plus WINS Iowa. It's that simple! Rand has to at least be very competitive with the old vote and then cross his fingers with the students in hopes for a win.

The OLD vote are a lost cause. They are at home frothing at the mouth about ISIS and Syria along with the rest of the morons that make up the rank and file of the GOP.

 

[kbs021]

Yes we do have these kids on a list already pledged. We had 5,000 COLLEGE students pledged in October. That number is growing everyday. We had 200 more in one campus just last week. Get ready for Shock and awe.

 

[Badger Paul]

"Have identified 37,700 potential voters in Iowa. This probably isn't counting the college vote... regardless, we will win if we GOTV. Simple as that."

I've underlined the word potential because it seems to have escaped you. Potential is nice but it's not reality. Reality comes when those votes are counted and on caucus night, when the anticipation is a turnout breaking all records (130,000-150,000), we're going to need every single one of these votes just to crack the top three.

I think observers in Iowa are starting to notice the organization and it's smart to target college kids because few Republicans are. As I said before, looking at the other campaigns I don't think Rand will do worse than fourth provided there isn't a last minute surge for someone like Christ Christie for example (who is being backed by a lot of establishment types in Iowa) just by the "organization" alone. By contrast, Rubio is counting on that DMR endorsement to be seen as the "establishment"/ regular Republican choice then way McCain did in 2008 which put him in third place without much heavy lifting on his part.

Which just goes to show no candidate I know of has ever "organized" their way to the White House. You've got to win somewhere at some point and that requires a candidate which motivates the voters on some level, any level, to support him (even if Trump finishes second in Iowa, that's still pretty impressive for a candidate which everyone acknowledges has a joke of an organization there). Rand really hasn't made that personal connection to support him beyond just the standard "message" of the Paul movement which limits his voter "potential" and that responsibility lies on him.

I will say, I think the campaign has done a better job of transmitting that message and taking advantage of free media (such as the media obtained from the debate snub) in the last few months and getting rid of people like Rothfield and others who basically acted like vampires on the movement. My hope is its not too little too late but again, that's on Rand to do. Bottom line is you and me cannot ultimately win an election for Rand. We can get him to the line but to cross over is his responsibility to turn those potential voters in real voters. And the reason I say this is because I don't want people on Feb. 2 saying to themselves "If I just made one more phone call..."

Oh by the way, if Rand doesn't make the cut and Ron never so much sets his foot in Iowa between now and caucus night, you'll have a lot of unhappy people in this forum.

 

[derek4ever]

Yes we do have these kids on a list already pledged. We had 5,000 COLLEGE students pledged in October. That number is growing everyday. We had 200 more in one campus just last week. Get ready for Shock and awe.

YEEEE-HAWWW!!! GREAT! Now if they can bring at least 1 friend or family member to caucus, our expectations should really be high!!

 

[Peace&Freedom]

Cruz is finished if he falls below 2nd in Iowa

I'm too much of a poll junkie but I really am curious to see how this barrage against Cruz has effected his numbers and if they've gone down as I expect then to who?

Very important question. Those ex-Cruz supporters might go to Trump or Carson, or Rand's recent outsider activity may have earned him enough perceived non-establishment status to get their votes. We'll soon see.

 

[kbs021]

"Have identified 37,700 potential voters in Iowa. This probably isn't counting the college vote... regardless, we will win if we GOTV. Simple as that."

I've underlined the word potential because it seems to have escaped you. Potential is nice but it's not reality. Reality comes when those votes are counted and on caucus night, when the anticipation is a turnout breaking all records (130,000-150,000), we're going to need every single one of these votes just to crack the top three.

I think observers in Iowa are starting to notice the organization and it's smart to target college kids because few Republicans are. As I said before, looking at the other campaigns I don't think Rand will do worse than fourth provided there isn't a last minute surge for someone like Christ Christie for example (who is being backed by a lot of establishment types in Iowa) just by the "organization" alone. By contrast, Rubio is counting on that DMR endorsement to be seen as the "establishment"/ regular Republican choice then way McCain did in 2008 which put him in third place without much heavy lifting on his part.

Which just goes to show no candidate I know of has ever "organized" their way to the White House. You've got to win somewhere at some point and that requires a candidate which motivates the voters on some level, any level, to support him (even if Trump finishes second in Iowa, that's still pretty impressive for a candidate which everyone acknowledges has a joke of an organization there). Rand really hasn't made that personal connection to support him beyond just the standard "message" of the Paul movement which limits his voter "potential" and that responsibility lies on him.

I will say, I think the campaign has done a better job of transmitting that message and taking advantage of free media (such as the media obtained from the debate snub) in the last few months and getting rid of people like Rothfield and others who basically acted like vampires on the movement. My hope is its not too little too late but again, that's on Rand to do. Bottom line is you and me cannot ultimately win an election for Rand. We can get him to the line but to cross over is his responsibility to turn those potential voters in real voters. And the reason I say this is because I don't want people on Feb. 2 saying to themselves "If I just made one more phone call..."

Oh by the way, if Rand doesn't make the cut and Ron never so much sets his foot in Iowa between now and caucus night, you'll have a lot of unhappy people in this forum.

You are making my point for me? Once again, if we GOTV we win. GOTV on potential voters. I for one like Rand's chances. His ground game is top-tier in general here AND unopposed on the campuses.

 

[FrancisMarion]

As an aside, it's interesting that the Caucas is more like a vote this year. The delegates are proportioned from each precinct results.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_caucuses#2016_process

I wonder what the dynamics will be in each precinct. With a mass of bullheaded youths the others my coalesce around one decided candidate to counter the youths. If the youth are perceived as reasonable, yet unyielding, instead of arrogantly obstinate, in my mind it would make a difference.

I would like the think persuasive ability important in a Caucas setting. Can anyone from Iowa attest to this thinking?

 

[Badger Paul]

My point is Rand has to invest as much personally into this campaign as persons like yourself are to win. It can't just be all on the grassroots and organizers.

 

[kbs021]

Agreed Badger, I am making calls as well.

Francis, yes that is a big factor. I have heard that many people flip while waiting to vote... We have veterans that are captains and will be making a speech at the caucus. Already seeing rumblings from the grassroots on this fact. "Wonder how many people will support Rand after hearing from our veterans"

 

[CPUd]

The only one who can compete with Rand in Iowa is Cruz, with Rubio a distant 3rd. Trump's campaign will be unwittingly bringing even more Rand supporters with their GOTV plan. No Scott Walker and Carson not really a threat in Iowa, this is why it's such a big deal that Cruz is going down.

 

[TomtheTinker]

I'm starting to believe!

But

Where is R O N P A U L?!?!

 

[CPUd]

I'm starting to believe!

But

Where is R O N P A U L?!?!

 

[luctor-et-emergo]

The only one who can compete with Rand in Iowa is Cruz, with Rubio a distant 3rd. Trump's campaign will be unwittingly bringing even more Rand supporters with their GOTV plan. No Scott Walker and Carson not really a threat in Iowa, this is why it's such a big deal that Cruz is going down.

After Iowa there will definitely be a first and a second tier. Probably Paul, Cruz, Rubio, Trump with double digits. But we'll have to see what happens to Cruz, who knows, he might implode before that time.

 

[mello]

My dream would be for Rand to win Iowa. Not for the win per se, but to to see how it would drive the network pundits insane for the postgame commentary. How the hell are they going to talk about the winner of the Iowa Caucus without saying his name?

I'm going to DVR it just in case because it will be hilarious.

 

[LibertyExplorer]

The only one who can compete with Rand in Iowa is Cruz, with Rubio a distant 3rd. Trump's campaign will be unwittingly bringing even more Rand supporters with their GOTV plan. No Scott Walker and Carson not really a threat in Iowa, this is why it's such a big deal that Cruz is going down.

You don't think Trump will finish top 3? Watching people talk right now it's hard to tell whether Cruz is taking Trump down or Trump is taking Cruz down. I see many saying that Trump's attacks on Cruz will hurt Cruz a lot, but I also see people saying they're ditching Trump for Cruz because of them.