GREAT article.. Upset prediction: Rand's Millennial Iowa strategy could actually work!

[CPUd]

You don't think Trump will finish top 3? Watching people talk right now it's hard to tell whether Cruz is taking Trump down or Trump is taking Cruz down. I see many saying that Trump's attacks on Cruz will hurt Cruz a lot, but I also see people saying they're ditching Trump for Cruz because of them.

No. Trump won't be able to get people to go caucus for him. He is running Iowa like a primary, and only targeting the 2 largest counties. He will get top 3 in NH, then he will drop out.

 

[nikcers]

You don't think Trump will finish top 3? Watching people talk right now it's hard to tell whether Cruz is taking Trump down or Trump is taking Cruz down. I see many saying that Trump's attacks on Cruz will hurt Cruz a lot, but I also see people saying they're ditching Trump for Cruz because of them.

Trumps all in for NH he has been from the start. He won't get people to caucus for Iowa. He will coin toss with Rubio for 3rd in Iowa. He is going to win NH though unless the media narrative works

 

[statist slayer]

Trump will underperform in Iowa, but he's going to stick through Super Tuesday, which has the biggest ever concentration of low information voters in the deep South.

 

[KingNothing]

I hope it does. But millenials as a whole are the most coddled do nothing generation ever.

What happened to you? You're a constant source of hyperbolic negativity now. Why?

 

[KingNothing]

Top 3 would allow him to "save face", and signal that the liberty movement isn't dead.

To have any chance at the nomination, he will have to win outright for the momentum it will provide.

Top 5 is all he needs. That puts him in contention with Trump, Cruz, Rubio, and Carson ahead of Bush, and ahead of the unserious candidates. If he cracks the top 3, that means he's got a jump on Rubio, Carson, and Bush. That would be massive.

I want a top 3 finish. I would live with a top 5 finish. If he somehow beats Trump or Cruz, I would be elated.

 

[KingNothing]

The thing for Trump now is that the expectations are ridiculously high. If he doesn't win Iowa and New Hampshire -and New Hampshire in a blowout- he could lose a lot of steam. It'll be really interesting to see how things shake out if he doesn't win Iowa, and doesn't get over 30-percent of the vote in NH.

 

[Rudeman]

The thing for Trump now is that the expectations are ridiculously high. If he doesn't win Iowa and New Hampshire -and New Hampshire in a blowout- he could lose a lot of steam. It'll be really interesting to see how things shake out if he doesn't win Iowa, and doesn't get over 30-percent of the vote in NH.

I think there's more pressure on Cruz to win Iowa, Trump has NH as a fallback, Cruz doesn't. If Rand does better than Cruz in Iowa then that's a huge hit to Cruz.

 

[derek4ever]

Top 5 is all he needs. That puts him in contention with Trump, Cruz, Rubio, and Carson ahead of Bush, and ahead of the unserious candidates. If he cracks the top 3, that means he's got a jump on Rubio, Carson, and Bush. That would be massive.

I want a top 3 finish. I would live with a top 5 finish. If he somehow beats Trump or Cruz, I would be elated.

I think we'll get a top 3 in Iowa!

 

[idiom]

Students might also be the difference for Sanders Vs Hillary. I wonder how seriously the Dems are taking Iowa.

 

[ChristianAnarchist]

"Have identified 37,700 potential voters in Iowa. This probably isn't counting the college vote... regardless, we will win if we GOTV. Simple as that."

I've underlined the word potential because it seems to have escaped you. Potential is nice but it's not reality. Reality comes when those votes are counted and on caucus night, when the anticipation is a turnout breaking all records (130,000-150,000), we're going to need every single one of these votes just to crack the top three.

I think observers in Iowa are starting to notice the organization and it's smart to target college kids because few Republicans are. As I said before, looking at the other campaigns I don't think Rand will do worse than fourth provided there isn't a last minute surge for someone like Christ Christie for example (who is being backed by a lot of establishment types in Iowa) just by the "organization" alone. By contrast, Rubio is counting on that DMR endorsement to be seen as the "establishment"/ regular Republican choice then way McCain did in 2008 which put him in third place without much heavy lifting on his part.

Which just goes to show no candidate I know of has ever "organized" their way to the White House. You've got to win somewhere at some point and that requires a candidate which motivates the voters on some level, any level, to support him (even if Trump finishes second in Iowa, that's still pretty impressive for a candidate which everyone acknowledges has a joke of an organization there). Rand really hasn't made that personal connection to support him beyond just the standard "message" of the Paul movement which limits his voter "potential" and that responsibility lies on him.

I will say, I think the campaign has done a better job of transmitting that message and taking advantage of free media (such as the media obtained from the debate snub) in the last few months and getting rid of people like Rothfield and others who basically acted like vampires on the movement. My hope is its not too little too late but again, that's on Rand to do. Bottom line is you and me cannot ultimately win an election for Rand. We can get him to the line but to cross over is his responsibility to turn those potential voters in real voters. And the reason I say this is because I don't want people on Feb. 2 saying to themselves "If I just made one more phone call..."

Oh by the way, if Rand doesn't make the cut and Ron never so much sets his foot in Iowa between now and caucus night, you'll have a lot of unhappy people in this forum.

Are you actually IN Iowa? If so I would like to pm you about my driving the Ron Paul Liberty Corvette up there...

 

[jmdrake]

Very important question. Those ex-Cruz supporters might go to Trump or Carson, or Rand's recent outsider activity may have earned him enough perceived non-establishment status to get their votes. We'll soon see.

Ben Carson is DOA at this point. If Cruz crashes Carson will not gain any of his supporters. What I'm hoping is that Cruz will counter attack and take Trump down a peg. Come on Ted. Pull a "Donald Trump once supported an assault weapons ban." TV ad out of your back pocket.

 

[thatpeculiarcat]

Oh by the way, if Rand doesn't make the cut and Ron never so much sets his foot in Iowa between now and caucus night, you'll have a lot of unhappy people in this forum.

Understatement.

 

[Scott_in_PA]

Top 5 is all he needs. That puts him in contention with Trump, Cruz, Rubio, and Carson ahead of Bush, and ahead of the unserious candidates. If he cracks the top 3, that means he's got a jump on Rubio, Carson, and Bush. That would be massive.

I want a top 3 finish. I would live with a top 5 finish. If he somehow beats Trump or Cruz, I would be elated.

Because of the new rules, we need the first or second slot.

ARTICLE VIII – BINDING OF NATIONAL CONVENTION DELEGATES
1. The Iowa delegation to the Republican National Convention shall be bound on the first ballot
to vote proportionally in accordance with the outcome of the Iowa Caucuses. The proportional
delegate allocation shall be rounded to the nearest whole delegate. In the event that a delegate
is unallocated due to mathematical rounding, the unallocated delegate vote shall be cast in favor
of the candidate closest to the rounding threshold. In the event that delegates are over-allocated
due to mathematical rounding, the over-allocated delegate shall be removed from a candidate
based on the rounding threshold. Delegates shall be bound to the candidates in direct proportion
to the candidates’ respective vote shares in the Iowa Caucuses regardless of whether any such
candidate has withdrawn from the race or otherwise does not have his or her name placed in
nomination at the Republican National Convention.
2. Notwithstanding paragraph 1 of this article,

if only one candidate’s name is placed in
nomination at the Republican National Convention, all delegates shall be bound to vote for such
candidate on the first ballot

provided that the candidate received votes in the Iowa Caucuses.

hxxps://www.iowagop.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/RPI-Bylaws-Updated-2015.pdf

We need momentum from a solid showing. The delegates are just tools of the RNC this year.

I fully expect rule the changes to bite them in the rear.....and be changed again before the convention.

RULE NO. 40
Nominations
(b) Each candidate for nomination for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States shall
demonstrate the support of a majority of the delegates from each of eight (8) or more states, severally, prior to the presentation of
the name of that candidate for nomination. Notwithstanding any other provisions of these rules or any rule of the House of
Representatives, to demonstrate the support required of this paragraph a certificate evidencing the affirmative written support of
the required number of permanently seated delegates from each of the eight (8) or more states shall have been submitted to the
secretary of the convention not later than one (1) hour prior to the placing of the names of candidates for nomination pursuant to
this rule and the established order of business.

hxxps://s3.amazonaws.com/prod-static-ngop-pbl/docs/Rules_of_the_Republican+Party_FINAL_S14090314.pdf

All there delegates belong to us......oh wait them

 

[Brett85]

I used to think that Rand had absolutely no chance in Iowa. I'm now a believer and am completely on board.

 

[squirl22]

Caucus is on a Monday, February 1.

You mean they do this in an evening? I used to live in Maine and it was an all day event and was on a Saturday so working people could attend.

 

[derek4ever]

I used to think that Rand had absolutely no chance in Iowa. I'm now a believer and am completely on board.

Buckle up! These next 16 days are gonna get insane and I mean in the good sense for Rand!!

 

[rich34]

Ben Carson is DOA at this point. If Cruz crashes Carson will not gain any of his supporters. What I'm hoping is that Cruz will counter attack and take Trump down a peg. Come on Ted. Pull a "Donald Trump once supported an assault weapons ban." TV ad out of your back pocket.

The gist I'm getting from some other internet forums I go to is that Trump is taking Cruz down not only due to Trump's comeback answer on New York, but is also convincing people that Cruz is the biggest hypocrite/flip flopper in the race. If true youkknow how Christians view hypocrites which is Cruz' base in Iowa right now. This is why I think Rand should refrain from attacking Trump or Cruz because they're going to do enough tearing down each other. And then throw in Rubio going after both of them as well. Then given the fact that many don't make up their mind's until the final two weeks anyway and to those just now tuning in he can easily come out looking like the most mature/presidential and having the best ideas of the bunch. I really think Rand just needs to stay positive and he's got this thing. Not to mention those two maybe three groups of supporters will be so upset with each other in a caucus format Rand again will be best positioned to pick up their voters if they're in precincts where their boy is not going to win and they can switch their support to Rand simply because they're more pissed off at the other sides supporters. I'm actually very impressed with the way Rand has played all this out.

 

[derek4ever]

The gist I'm getting from some other internet forums I go to is that Trump is taking Cruz down not only due to Trump's comeback answer on New York, but is also convincing people that Cruz is the biggest hypocrite/flip flopper in the race. If true youkknow how Christians view hypocrites which is Cruz' base in Iowa right now. This is why I think Rand should refrain from attacking Trump or Cruz because they're going to do enough tearing down each other. And then throw in Rubio going after both of them as well. Then given the fact that many don't make up their mind's until the final two weeks anyway and to those just now tuning in he can easily come out looking like the most mature/presidential and having the best ideas of the bunch. I really think Rand just needs to stay positive and he's got this thing. Not to mention those two maybe three groups of supporters will be so upset with each other in a caucus format Rand again will be best positioned to pick up their voters if they're in precincts where their boy is not going to win and they can switch their support to Rand simply because they're more pissed off at the other sides supporters. I'm actually very impressed with the way Rand has played all this out.

Me too! And I'll make a promise: in order not to jinx IA against Rand, I won't say which place he finishes. So, that's why I say top 3 or top 4!

 

[rich34]

Ben Carson is DOA at this point. If Cruz crashes Carson will not gain any of his supporters. What I'm hoping is that Cruz will counter attack and take Trump down a peg. Come on Ted. Pull a "Donald Trump once supported an assault weapons ban." TV ad out of your back pocket.

I'm hoping between Trump, Cruz, and Rubio they all knock each other down and while I think Rand could get some of their supporters mainly from Cruz and Trump so long as those supporters disperse among other candidates that will still take away from all their total vote tally's on election night.

 

[PCKY]

Very important question. Those ex-Cruz supporters might go to Trump or Carson, or Rand's recent outsider activity may have earned him enough perceived non-establishment status to get their votes. We'll soon see.

They could also choose to skip it.