Gold @ $1,528

Wholesale gasoline 1.72 , retail gasoline 2.60 , Copper steady @ 2.80 , Palladium over 2K for two days , Rhodium steady @ 7K , Nat Gas 2.16 , heating oil steady @ 2.03 , Dow still @ 28500. Everything looks pretty steady .
 
oyarde said:
Wholesale gasoline 1.72 , retail gasoline 2.60 , Copper steady @ 2.80 , Palladium over 2K for two days , Rhodium steady @ 7K , Nat Gas 2.16 , heating oil steady @ 2.03 , Dow still @ 28500. Everything looks pretty steady .
Click to expand...

Wait until London opens in 2 hours. Or maybe the market thinks this is it but I suspect the Iranian's aren't finished yet.
 
Barring any escalation in the Iran warm war, it looks like gold hit a near term peak. Silver and miners never broke through a long standing upper resistance. I would expect a pull back for the next 6 months.
 
Krugminator2 said:
Sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.

I couldn't have traded this worse and feel like complete shit despite this being about as obvious as gets for a trade but at least I was right on an internet forum.
Click to expand...

Interesting. And I sold very close to the peak. ;) But that’s because I long ago set my sell prices. No reason to let short term emotion interfere.

The markets are pushed one way or another by the big players, and they don’t trade on short term emotion. If they want the markets to really move one way or another, they make it move. If gold had continued to go up, there would have been a short squeeze and containment would have been lost.
 
I think devil mentioned it earlier, but this "war premium" in gold/silver is happening while there appears to be significant structural issues with the COMEX gold/silver market. I imagine that the run up in price is due to institutional investors (hedge funds, etc.) who are happy with "paper gold", but if demand shifts for actual physical metal, things could get real interesting.
 
Bern said:
I think devil mentioned it earlier, but this "war premium" in gold/silver is happening while there appears to be significant structural issues with the COMEX gold/silver market. I imagine that the run up in price is due to institutional investors (hedge funds, etc.) who are happy with "paper gold", but if demand shifts for actual physical metal, things could get real interesting.
Click to expand...

There is massive monetary inflation. Prices of everything are “going up” in terms of the devaluating fiat currency. Manipulation is taking place to prevent gold from being a clear barometer on that monetary inflation. The entire system demands it. “Paper gold” is key to that manipulation.
 
I'm still buying Krugerands as long as gold is under 1600. im a long term investor and can only see it heading towards 1800
 
Warlord said:
I'm still buying Krugerands as long as gold is under 1600. im a long term investor and can only see it heading towards 1800
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Just to take a WAG, gold may bottom in the summer around 1475. No doubt the pros have a price around that point where they will start to buy again.
 
Brian4Liberty said:
Just to take a WAG, gold may bottom in the summer around 1475. No doubt the pros have a price around that point where they will start to buy again.
Click to expand...

Gold is holding at 1550. Previous resistance becomes support. I'm hoping it doesn't breach that otherwise you might be right.
 
Krugminator2 said:
Most important fundamental reason is commericial hedgers (i.e. smart money in futures market) are the most net short they have been since 2016.
Click to expand...
Commercials are the most net short not only since 2016 but since forever, and by far: in 2016 they were 300,000 contracts net short, today it's 10% more, 330,000.

B4L is right when he points to a potential short squeeze as the reason why they kept a lid on it.
Had the price kept climbing up, the first shorts had started to close their positions on the upside, starting the avalanche.
Don't forget that among the shorts there are not only hedgers but specs too.

Commercials have to close they positions and clear the COT.
I've tried to look at how much the gold price sunk in the past in order to allow the shorts to close big positions (still much less than today).
In 2013 the gold price sunk around 30%, 2016 10%, 2018 almost 10%

https://www.barchart.com/futures/commitment-of-traders/technical-charts/GC*0

So, based on the Cot only, sub 1400 seems to be in the cards.
If that happens though, it will stay there for a very short time.

On the other hand there is A. Maguire's prediction
https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/podcast/9830/gold-2020-andrew-maguire
 
Paul799 said:
Commercials are the most net short not only since 2016 but since forever, and by far: in 2016 they were 300,000 contracts net short, today it's 10% more, 330,000.

B4L is right when he points to a potential short squeeze as the reason why they kept a lid on it.
Had the price kept climbing up, the first shorts had started to close their positions on the upside, starting the avalanche.
Don't forget that among the shorts there are not only hedgers but specs too.

Commercials have to close they positions and clear the COT.
I've tried to look at how much the gold price sunk in the past in order to allow the shorts to close big positions (still much less than today).
In 2013 the gold price sunk around 30%, 2016 10%, 2018 almost 10%

https://www.barchart.com/futures/commitment-of-traders/technical-charts/GC*0

So, based on the Cot only, sub 1400 seems to be in the cards.
If that happens though, it will stay there for a very short time.

On the other hand there is A. Maguire's prediction
https://www.tfmetalsreport.com/podcast/9830/gold-2020-andrew-maguire
Click to expand...
For a good amount of time gold was around 1200 , every few months it would move to 1300 then back to 1100 or 1200 and then back . So a 200 swing. I just tried to buy some at 1100 and sell a little at 1300 . If the swing now is 1300 to 1600 or what it could be the same .
 
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Dow at 29k now and gold 1560.00 . Silver and gold both look to have upside . You can get an ounce of silver for the cost of 7 gal of gas or 3 1/3 lbs of bacon and most people do not have any .
 
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E. B. Tucker ( director of Metalla Royalty )said 1900 is next and that is when the public will catch on . We shall see . Personally I would expect 1600 next week simply because there is no reason not . That is still cheap insurance against a 29K Dow .
 
Gold firming up. Not a big fan of predictions. But stock market in a vulnerable position. Low vix and put call ratio and overbought plus a lot of fever brained speculation in "growth" stocks.

Market hasn't priced in any chance of Sanders winning. Wouldn't be surprised if market gets more volatile heading on Iowa and New Hampshire. Sanders winning Iowa might be a jolt to markets. Might be good for gold.
 
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