Gold @ $1,528

(Bloomberg) -- Gold surged to the highest level in more than six years as fast-rising tensions in the Middle East stoked demand for haven assets, with Goldman Sachs Group Inc. saying that bullion offered a more effective hedge than oil to the crisis. Palladium extended gains to an all-time high.

Bullion neared $1,600 an ounce as Tehran said it would no longer abide by any limits on its enrichment of uranium following the killing of General Qassem Soleimani. In addition, President Donald Trump said he was prepared to strike Iran “in a disproportionate manner” if it retaliates against any U.S. target.

Gold “has entered 2020 with strong momentum,” Gavin Wendt, senior resource analyst at MineLife Pty in Sydney, said in an email. “When you factor in ongoing uncertainty with respect to U.S.-China trade talks and heightened security issues with Iran, gold really is a no-brainer.”

Bullion is building on the largest annual climb since 2010, which was driven by a weaker dollar, lower real rates and the trade war’s drag on global growth. The widening fallout from the drone strike on Soleimani is threatening to escalate, denting risk sentiment and sending investors to havens. While Goldman analysts cautioned there was a large range of potential scenarios at this stage, the bank said bullion may prove a better bet than oil/.

“History shows that under most outcomes gold will likely rally to well beyond current levels,” analysts including Jeffrey Currie and Damien Courvalin said in a note dated Jan. 6. That’s “consistent with our previous research, which shows that being long gold is a better hedge to such geopolitical risks.”

Spot bullion climbed as much as 2.3% to $1,588.13 an ounce, the highest level since April 2013, and traded at $1,574.29 at 7:17 a.m. in London. Futures gained as much as 2.5% to $1,590.90. Palladium jumped 1.5% to $2,019.73 an ounce, a fresh record, while silver and platinum also rose.

There are other factors supporting bullion. The Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates anytime within the next six months, which will in turn probably keep a cap on the U.S. dollar -- both of which are “extremely positive” for gold, according to MineLife’s Wendt.

Gold miners traded higher. Newcrest Mining Ltd., Australia’s largest producer, rose 3.9% in Sydney, while Evolution Mining Ltd. advanced 6.8%.

Palladium has also benefited from the optimism surrounding havens, as well as its own set of fundamentals -- notably being in a multi-year deficit as demand rises in autocatalysts amid stricter emissions standards.

“Palladium, like gold, has been steadily tracking higher over the last two weeks, and the conflict between the U.S. and Tehran seems to have bolstered this,” said Sean MacLean, research strategist at Pepperstone Ltd. “Demand for palladium is increasing faster than its supply, so the long-term trend is on the up anyway.”
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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-climbs-highest-level-since-230920306.html
 
COMEX is ,for all intents and purposes, completely bust. COMEX has essentially ceased delivering physical for settlements. At this point COMEX actually owes about 75 tons of gold to delivery longs that it can't/won't deliver. Record high massive paper games is the only thing keeping metals from launching. Best believe those in the know are loading up on physical wherever they can find it.
 
Gold probably good for a short. Crazy market lately so haven't paid attention to gold. But nicely set up. Would have started to scale in today had I noticed it. If gold is green tomorrow at any point will start in. Would like to see a small green day and then maybe one more gap up day on Wednesday before it pukes back.

Very overbought using multiple criteria (RSI, Bollinger Band on daily and weekly chart). Stupid people buying an "obvious" breakout, which tend to fail. Most important fundamental reason is commericial hedgers (i.e. smart money in futures market) are the most net short they have been since 2016.

Might not be a ton of meat on the bone for more than a few day short but this is a horrifically bad place to start a long. Literally couldn't pick a worse place.
 
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Gold is holding up really well. The media picked up on the breakout and so did Drudge so there is selling going on to the suckers who got in late. I predict it will retrace upwards now that the genie is out of the bottle. However the gold market moves slow. I'm still buying anyway.
 
Gold broke through it’s upper resistance level some time ago. Silver and miners are very close to that same resistance point. Will they break through now too?
 
Brian4Liberty said:
Gold broke through it’s upper resistance level some time ago. Silver and miners are very close to that same resistance point. Will they break through now too?
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The genie is out of the bottle. I'm still buying as much as can afford below $1600.
 
Zippyjuan said:
So they expect no real change from today's $1572?
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They are less optimistic or a little behind , it was as high as 1590 Sun night . Been as high as 1611.10 tonight and currently over 1585 . Or maybe Degussa has a better analyst . Silver probably up over 30 percent since July , was 18.41 earlier .
 
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One mistake that I think most people made when gold was 1200 was they thought the Bulls had dried up . It is not that market . It is just insurance against the stock markets .
 
Krugminator2 said:
Gold probably good for a short. Crazy market lately so haven't paid attention to gold. But nicely set up. Would have started to scale in today had I noticed it. If gold is green tomorrow at any point will start in. Would like to see a small green day and then maybe one more gap up day on Wednesday before it pukes back.

Very overbought using multiple criteria (RSI, Bollinger Band on daily and weekly chart). Stupid people buying an "obvious" breakout, which tend to fail. Most important fundamental reason is commericial hedgers (i.e. smart money in futures market) are the most net short they have been since 2016.

Might not be a ton of meat on the bone for more than a few day short but this is a horrifically bad place to start a long. Literally couldn't pick a worse place.
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Or a short squeeze.
 
Gold is a better hedge than oil I think. Oil prices look to be steadying . One year forecast 72.00 , current West Texas Light Sweet @ 62 and Brent @ 68 . Gold currently 1590 with upside .
 
Brian4Liberty said:
I’d guessing it will go up again tomorrow.
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It's been shooting mostly straight up like a rocket the past few days. I would guess a correction tomorrow, but ultimately continuing its climb, depending on what happens with Iran. Any attacks on Americans will send the market into a deep dive and shoot gold up even higher...
 
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