JeffSchulman
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- Joined
- Jan 8, 2008
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- 117
http://blogs.forbes.com/trailwatch/2008/02/ron-paul-and-th.html
BIG News - Forbes has correctly identified that we will be the deciding factor of who the next president is.
Ron Paul And The Republican Crisis
The turnout at the University of Minnesota for the Feb. 5 Republican caucus was overwhelming—the almost-all-student crowd of over 300 packed two large classrooms for an event that, the facilitator said, had attracted fewer than 10 people in 2004.
But in what may be an ominous portent for the short- and long-term unity of the Republican Party, close to a third of these caucus-goers turned out to support Ron Paul. Statewide, 16% of voters cast their ballots for the maverick libertarian.
Of the 20 or so Paul supporters whom I interviewed at that event, about two-thirds said they would consider voting for a Democrat if Paul isn’t the Republican nominee.
If—and that's not a very uncertain "if"—Paul doesn’t win the Republican nomination, the eventual nominee will have to think hard about how to hold on to Paul’s supporters, who, by one estimate, make up about 6% of Republicans nationally. That’s a lot of voters, at least by the standards of the last two ultra-close elections, and depending on why they support Paul, many of them could find that they have more in common with the leading Democrats than with John McCain.
Paul may favor low taxes—a pillar of Republican ideology—but he also turns sharply away from his party’s positions on the war in Iraq and on some social issues. If, as my Tuesday interviews suggest, many of Paul’s supporters back him for his calls to leave Iraq, then it might not be reasonable for McCain to expect many of their votes in November.
This also introduces a broader challenge for Republicans. Could the party’s awkward coalition of libertarians and other sorts of conservatives crumble? Keep in mind that although Tuesday’s caucus was the first election event that many of my interviewees had participated in, they weren’t newcomers to the conservative scene, and they didn’t take their involvement with the GOP lightly. Many had Republican parents and grandparents—“all the way back to Lincoln,” as one said—and for the rising cohort of Republican partisans to support Paul and to consider voting Democratic suggests that the Republican Party is in for an identity crisis.
If Republican Party leaders figure out how to hang on to the Ron Paul crowd, they may end up owing gratitude to the Texas congressman, who in 2008 forced them to consider just who their supporters are.
--Jon Bruner
BIG News - Forbes has correctly identified that we will be the deciding factor of who the next president is.
Ron Paul And The Republican Crisis
The turnout at the University of Minnesota for the Feb. 5 Republican caucus was overwhelming—the almost-all-student crowd of over 300 packed two large classrooms for an event that, the facilitator said, had attracted fewer than 10 people in 2004.
But in what may be an ominous portent for the short- and long-term unity of the Republican Party, close to a third of these caucus-goers turned out to support Ron Paul. Statewide, 16% of voters cast their ballots for the maverick libertarian.
Of the 20 or so Paul supporters whom I interviewed at that event, about two-thirds said they would consider voting for a Democrat if Paul isn’t the Republican nominee.
If—and that's not a very uncertain "if"—Paul doesn’t win the Republican nomination, the eventual nominee will have to think hard about how to hold on to Paul’s supporters, who, by one estimate, make up about 6% of Republicans nationally. That’s a lot of voters, at least by the standards of the last two ultra-close elections, and depending on why they support Paul, many of them could find that they have more in common with the leading Democrats than with John McCain.
Paul may favor low taxes—a pillar of Republican ideology—but he also turns sharply away from his party’s positions on the war in Iraq and on some social issues. If, as my Tuesday interviews suggest, many of Paul’s supporters back him for his calls to leave Iraq, then it might not be reasonable for McCain to expect many of their votes in November.
This also introduces a broader challenge for Republicans. Could the party’s awkward coalition of libertarians and other sorts of conservatives crumble? Keep in mind that although Tuesday’s caucus was the first election event that many of my interviewees had participated in, they weren’t newcomers to the conservative scene, and they didn’t take their involvement with the GOP lightly. Many had Republican parents and grandparents—“all the way back to Lincoln,” as one said—and for the rising cohort of Republican partisans to support Paul and to consider voting Democratic suggests that the Republican Party is in for an identity crisis.
If Republican Party leaders figure out how to hang on to the Ron Paul crowd, they may end up owing gratitude to the Texas congressman, who in 2008 forced them to consider just who their supporters are.
--Jon Bruner
