For those who say Rand can:Time Magazine why the polls are wrong this far out from Iowa Caucus

[derek4ever]

If we look at how Ron did in IA in 2008 and 2012, which was 10% and 21%, Rand should get at least 16% of the vote. The Iowa Straw Poll showed him 2nd with 18%. So I think this is where Rand SHOULD stand. Let's see what happens!!

 

[ssunlimited]

Rand's iowa campaign manager gave dole a win in the 96 contest and saw forbes get second in 2k! I think we're in good company!!

Wait a minute... what was Rand's IA campaign manager's intention in the 96 contest that got those results?

 

[ssunlimited]

If Rand has such a good shot at it like the last few posters here are saying, how come his pollings in IA are so low?

 

[groverblue]

On the call with the campaign today they said they were expecting a "decent" placing, with the "gold standard" being "1st - 5th". The numbers they put forth in the call were: expect about 120,000 to turn out (not counting weather, of course), with 20,000+ votes to place in top two, 15,000-20,000 for 3rd.

I'm thinking that they expect close to 30,000 votes, hence the campaign is now pushing to regain Ron's supporters. You see that with the introduction of Ron making calls, the attack on Cruz lately, and a "special guest" to appear in Iowa near the end of the month (which is probably Ron). Cruz might have videos, but we have the real thing. I remarked that it's a checkmate move by Rand. If you look at his strategy, he spent a year attracting non-Ron supporters, now he's calling the liberty vote home.

If Rand wins Iowa, it's going to be a landslide that's going to sweep the early states. Good news is also coming out of NV, too. Not sure that the status of SC is, but remember this:



Worst case scenario is 3rd, by all estimates.

 

[Joeinmo]

If Rand has such a good shot at it like the last few posters here are saying, how come his pollings in IA are so low?

Because polling is highly inaccurate and as each year passes by it becomes harder to poll. It is illegal to numerically auto dial cell phones for example. So what you basically have in polling now is land line polling with a smattering of cell phones lines dialed by data packs. Well land lines are generally owned by older voters than watch traditional news sources, some of these people get polled a dozen times, while most cell phone owners get zero polls. I remember when I had a business in 2012 getting polled on my business land line a couple times, but nothing on my cell phone.

 

[kbs021]

Because polling is highly inaccurate and as each year passes by it becomes harder to poll. It is illegal to numerically auto dial cell phones for example. So what you basically have in polling now is land line polling with a smattering of cell phones lines dialed by data packs. Well land lines are generally owned by older voters than watch traditional news sources, some of these people get polled a dozen times, while most cell phone owners get zero polls. I remember when I had a business in 2012 getting polled on my business land line a couple times, but nothing on my cell phone.

Very true.. When calling for Rand in Iowa, I get many business lines!

 

[derek4ever]

Wait a minute... what was Rand's IA campaign manager's intention in the 96 contest that got those results?

No idea! But he has a track record of doing very well with candidates that have at least been on the ballot in Iowa. Tommy Thompson and Herman Cain don't count because they didn't make it to the caucus. So, he's a campaign manager that knows how the IA caucus works and can help us propel Rand to infinity!!

 

[Joeinmo]

Very true.. When calling for Rand in Iowa, I get many business lines!

land lines are allowed to use numerical auto dialers, but I'm sure Rand has data packs of Ron Paul supporters with cell phones too, but I'm just guessing

 

[Joeinmo]

On the call with the campaign today they said they were expecting a "decent" placing, with the "gold standard" being "1st - 5th". The numbers they put forth in the call were: expect about 120,000 to turn out (not counting weather, of course), with 20,000+ votes to place in top two, 15,000-20,000 for 3rd.

I'm thinking that they expect close to 30,000 votes, hence the campaign is now pushing to regain Ron's supporters. You see that with the introduction of Ron making calls, the attack on Cruz lately, and a "special guest" to appear in Iowa near the end of the month (which is probably Ron). Cruz might have videos, but we have the real thing. I remarked that it's a checkmate move by Rand. If you look at his strategy, he spent a year attracting non-Ron supporters, now he's calling the liberty vote home.

If Rand wins Iowa, it's going to be a landslide that's going to sweep the early states. Good news is also coming out of NV, too. Not sure that the status of SC is, but remember this:



Worst case scenario is 3rd, by all estimates.

very interesting info ...thanks

 

[cornell]

I posted this in the ongoing thread regarding the DMR poll but seems applicable to repost here:

 

[CaptUSA]

1. The polls are not measuring what they purport to measure. This is anyone's game.
2. The media has a huge impact on any "surge" you may find leading up to the caucuses. We have to be vigilant.
3. The ground game in Iowa is impressive. If it holds, Rand will do quite well.
4. The media will diminish any good numbers for Rand by saying he doesn't mean anything since he got a bunch of college kids to caucus and that's not a reality of how people in the rest of the country vote.

I predict Rand comes out near the top, but it doesn't move their "polls" much at all in the other states. But, I also predict that Rand outperforms those "polls" in each state while most of the other candidates will underperform. (except, sadly, maybe Bush)

 

[LifeLibertyPursuit]

I expect Rand to poll between 21 to 26% in shocking the media. My expectations are set accordingly at a floor 13% to be my own contrarian