According to Time ...Santorum was just at 4% this far out of the caucus while others were polling much higher.
Rand is
http://time.com/4184449/iowa-caucus-election-polls/
Rand is
http://time.com/4184449/iowa-caucus-election-polls/
For those who say Rand can:Time Magazine why the polls are wrong this far out from Iowa Caucus
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mit26chell
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I'm hoping for top 3. What I really pray for is him to at least beat Terd.
LatinsforPaul
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derek4ever
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I can't wait! It's going to be a shocker for the beltway! As hard as it is, i won't give my iowa prediction. I want it to be a great surprise! 
mit26chell
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I can't wait to see the media's heads spinning in fucking circles, tbh.
derek4ever
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Oh no, they will just down play the results and belittle the significance of Iowa; like why the straw poll went the way of the do do bird and how CPAC results don't get mentioned unless an establishment wins it.
i tell you though, if Rand doesn't place in the top three, I am sure your Fauxes will be drilling in to the heads of viewers how his candidacy is over.
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Yes, at 13 days before the caucus, even in Iowa Santorum was averaging about 6-7% just prior to that. In the 2 weeks before the caucus he surged to an average of 16%, and he actually won 25% in the final vote. Ron Paul though only saw a modest bump in the final 2 weeks, and his final result was spot on with the final polling average.
If Rand beats Cruz they will use it to trash Cruz but will ignore that Rand beat him.
Exactly, that would be a huge upset from the media pov but they would find a way to ignore mentioning Rand and the narrative would be the collapse of Cruz. They'll also use it as an opportunity to prop up one of Bush, Rubio, Kasich or Christie, knowing that NH and SC tend to be more favorable towards establishment/moderate types.
derek4ever
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Just thinking about that makes me smile....
ssunlimited
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To be more realistic(I'm a realist) than the other posters on this thread, I think it will still be quite hard for Rand to get a Santorum-like surge(2012) this time around. But he(Rand) needs to finish top 3 in IA in order to have a chance in NH and, for the nomination. I think it's unlikely but he DOES have a ground/grassroots there(or so he says...).
I've been doing caucus' since Buchanan ran against Dole
the caucus system is tough, there are a lot of deals made. I remember back in the day, Buchanan and Alan Keyes people worked together to beat Dole. Then again in 2012, we worked with Romney backers to keep down the Santorum folk and came out with a 70% of the delegates vs 30% for Romney and beat out Santorum who had more than each of us but not more of both slates put together.
it could be that Rand folks come together with Carson backers and put Cruz in 3rd and Trump in fourth. You just don't know how everything will work out, that's why having over 1000 trained leaders makes a difference
the caucus system is tough, there are a lot of deals made. I remember back in the day, Buchanan and Alan Keyes people worked together to beat Dole. Then again in 2012, we worked with Romney backers to keep down the Santorum folk and came out with a 70% of the delegates vs 30% for Romney and beat out Santorum who had more than each of us but not more of both slates put together.
it could be that Rand folks come together with Carson backers and put Cruz in 3rd and Trump in fourth. You just don't know how everything will work out, that's why having over 1000 trained leaders makes a difference
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ssunlimited
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If we put Trump in 4th, it could seriously damage his campaign, if not end his chances of winning the nomination. You need top 3 in IA to win NH. If you win either, you have really low chances of winning the GOP nomination.
derek4ever
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Rand's iowa campaign manager gave dole a win in the 96 contest and saw forbes get second in 2k! I think we're in good company!!
there are so many possible ways to win, that's what 8 years of hardened caucus goers do for a campaign, the Rand supporters know what to do, you'll have AJ Spiker there leading the thing, he knows how to win. No other campaign has that, it's a huge advantage, and for people to think Rand will be at 5% when the caucus concludes, well they are just idiots. It's not going to happen, Rand knows he has a chance at first for good reason, two election cycles of Ron Paul supporters, this is Iowa folks, they will be there again, a state GOP organization run by half Ron Paul supporters, a voter list that is incredible --- 8 years in the making, an election held when class is in, that is huge, and most importantly a digital communication system that will be incredible --- I don't know for sure but I'm guessing Rand has an app or something similar he is going to roll out for the caucus goers backing him
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