I did a sort of cost/benefit analysis as to which states have a better bang for your buck as far as focusing effort. Of course everyone should promote everywhere, but there are some huge discrepancies in the amount of delegates each state has and its population.
Why Population to Delegate ratio? Population defines the size of the marketplace you are competing in. The price in time and money spent in organizing locally, running TV and radio ads, getting signs visible, and good old word-of-mouth. The smaller the population in relation to the reward (delegates), the higher the value for the campaign. While we are fighting for likely Republican voters, it is the number of people in the marketplace that defines the price of advertising.
Each State that has a caucus I have noted, because that adds to the potential bang for our buck as we do better in caucuses.
My next project will be studying how each particular state handles its delegates and look for potential monkey wrenches.
Total Population 315695759
Total Delegates 2288
Majority 1145
Average Population Per Delegate 137978 <- The over/under
1/03/12 Iowa Est Pop. 3062309 / Delegates 28 == 109368 +Caucus
1/10/12 New Hampshire Est Pop. 1318194 / Delegates 12 == 109849
1/21/12 South Carolina Est Pop. 4679230 / Delegates 25 == 187169
1/31/12 Florida Est Pop. 19057542 / Delegates 50 == 381150 Worst ratio in the nation by far, nearly worthless
2/04/12 Nevada Est Pop. 2723322 / Delegates 28 == 97261 +Caucus
2/04/12 Maine Est Pop. 1328188 / Delegates 24 == 55341 +Caucus/ First bargain State
2/07/12 Colorado Est Pop. 5116796 / Delegates 36 == 142133 +Caucus
2/07/12 Minnesota Est Pop. 5344861 / Delegates 40 == 133621 +Caucus
2/28/12 Arizona Est Pop. 6482505 / Delegates 29 == 223534 This one is important for momentum even if the value per delegate is bad. 3/6 is the day with biggest potential and an AZ win would help the narrative leading into it.
2/28/12 Michigan Est Pop. 9876187 / Delegates 30 == 329206 Second Worst Value
3/03/12 Washington Est Pop. 6830038 / Delegates 43 == 158838+ Caucus
3/06/12 Alaska Est Pop. 722718 / Delegates 27 == 26767 + Caucus
3/06/12 Georgia Est Pop. 9815210 / Delegates 76 == 129147 Newt may get them temporarily, but he gives them back when he fails at the convention or drops out before it.
3/06/12 Idaho Est Pop. 1584985 / Delegates 32 == 49530 + Caucus
3/06/12 Massachusetts Est Pop. 6587536 / Delegates 41 == 160671
3/06/12 North Dakota Est Pop. 683932 / Delegates 28 == 24426 + Caucus
3/06/12 Ohio Est Pop. 11544951 / Delegates 66 == 174923
3/06/12 Oklahoma Est Pop. 3791508 / Delegates 43 == 88174
3/06/12 Tennessee Est Pop. 6403353 / Delegates 58 == 110402
3/06/12 Vermont Est Pop. 626431 / Delegates 17 == 36848
3/06/12 Virginia Est Pop. 8096604 / Delegates 50 == 161932 +Only us and Romney on the ballot here
3/06/12 Wyoming Est Pop. 568158 / Delegates 29 == 19591 + Caucus
3/6 is the day we potentially shock the world. 5 complete bargain states, and a medicore one with OK.
3/10/12 Kansas Est Pop. 2871238 / Delegates 40 == 71780 + Caucus
3/10/12 US Virgin Islands Est Pop. 109750 / Delegates 9 == 12194 + Caucus
3/10/12 Guam Est Pop. 178000 / Delegates 9 == 19777 + Caucus
3/10/12 N. Mariana Islands Est Pop. 53883 / Delegates 9 == 5987 + Caucus
3/13/12 Alabama Est Pop. 4802740 / Delegates 50 == 96054
3/13/12 American Samoa Est Pop. 55519 / Delegates 9 == 6168 + Caucus
3/13/12 Hawaii Est Pop. 1374810 / Delegates 20 == 68740 + Caucus
3/13/12 Mississippi Est Pop. 2978512 / Delegates 40 == 74462
3/17/12 Missouri Est Pop. 6010688 / Delegates 52 == 115590 Caucus
3/18/12 Puerto Rico Est Pop. 3706690 / Delegates 23 == 161160 + Caucus
3/20/12 Illinois Est Pop. 12869257 / Delegates 69 == 186510
3/24/12 Louisianna Est Pop. 4574836 / Delegates 46 == 99452 We had a good showing here in 2008
4/03/12 Maryland Est Pop. 5828289 / Delegates 37 == 157521
4/03/12 Texas Est Pop. 25674681 / Delegates155 == 165643
4/03/12 Washington D.C. Est Pop. 617996 / Delegates 19 == 32526
4/03/12 Wisconsin Est Pop. 5711767 / Delegates 42 == 135994
4/24/12 Connecticut Est Pop. 3580709 / Delegates 28 == 127882
4/24/12 Delaware Est Pop. 907135 / Delegates 17 == 53360
4/24/12 New York Est Pop. 19465197 / Delegates 95 == 204896
4/24/12 Pennsylvania Est Pop. 12742886 / Delegates 72 == 176984
4/24/12 Rhode Island Est Pop. 1051302 / Delegates 19 == 55331
5/08/12 Indiana Est Pop. 6516922 / Delegates 46 == 141672
5/08/12 North Carolina Est Pop. 9656401 / Delegates 55 == 175570
5/08/12 West Virginia Est Pop. 1855364 / Delegates 31 == 59850
5/15/12 Nebraska Est Pop. 1842641 / Delegates 35 == 52646
5/15/12 Oregon Est Pop. 3871859 / Delegates 29 == 133512
5/22/12 Arkansas Est Pop. 2937979 / Delegates 36 == 81610
5/22/12 Kentucky Est Pop. 4369356 / Delegates 45 == 97096 + Rand makes this one less difficult
6/05/12 California Est Pop. 37691912 / Delegates172 == 219139
6/05/12 Montana Est Pop. 998199 / Delegates 26 == 38392
6/05/12 New Jersey Est Pop. 8821155 / Delegates 50 == 176423
6/05/12 New Mexico Est Pop. 2082224 / Delegates 23 == 90531
6/05/12 South Dakota Est Pop. 824082 / Delegates 28 == 29431
6/26/12 Utah Est Pop. 2817222 / Delegates 40 == 70430
While I understand the strategy is much more complex than this (as certain states bind delegates differently, some proportionate to vote, some winner take all) I found an interesting statistic. I pulled all of the States & Territories with a ratio under 100,000 into a list. A population (marketplace) of 49,154,030 is represented by 779 delegates. That 49 million is 15% of the US population, but it gets you over two thirds (68%) of the delegates needed for a majority (1145/2288).
The official campaign should target its mass market spending on those bargain states. Grassroots should be active in places like Florida, but the delegate proportionality makes it a complete lack of value for the campaign's limited financial resources (as great as they will be as we donate generously).
