Flipping the vote against Ron Paul in South Carolina?

[bbwarfield]

keep in mind (new people) somethings we say "its been debunked" have... some have not but we did make the assumption we had... none of us have perfect memories... and mine tends to have a margin of error of +/- 10 %

 

[Aden]

Is there a way to figure out what the vote totals should look like? In other words, can we reflip the counties we think are flipped, to see what the true totals for SC would look like?

 

[Liberty1789]

Is there a way to figure out what the vote totals should look like? In other words, can we reflip the counties we think are flipped, to see what the true totals for SC would look like?

The easy way is to look at scores at 20% cumulated at take them as final. Takes you there pretty well in most cases.

 

[Liberty1789]

South Carolina Doodle

As you can see, only Santorum was more or less left alone when one considers the full state. Paul and Gingrich badly hurt.

 

[cachemaster]

Is there a way to figure out what the vote totals should look like? In other words, can we reflip the counties we think are flipped, to see what the true totals for SC would look like?

If you read the thread you would have seen this has already been done multiple times, including in the original report.

 

[bbwarfield]

Two ways come to mind.

1. Exit polling data was used from four states and averaged, which conclusively proved that Ron Paul has steady influence between urban, suburban, and rural locations. The fluctuation was 1%, well within the margin of error.

QUOTE] problem is the exit polls were also spot on in South Carolina... were we are showing the numbers are probably quite off.

I think that the original analysis of was correct.... that the 1% deviance didnt affect it..... but exit poll numbers probably were massaged as well..... so if they think we are wrong... the exit poll data holds weight..... if they think we are right.... then the exit polls are as phoney as the vote tallies.... catch 22

 

[bbwarfield]

If you read the thread you would have seen this has already been done multiple times, including in the original report.

its kinda been done.... but ive never seen a

South carolina total would be x romney x gingrich x paul.....ect.... I would like the final percentage as well..... just to run a side wacky theory

 

[tremendoustie]

As you can see, only Santorum was more or less left alone when one considers the full state. Paul and Gingrich badly hurt.

I don't know though -- if they're committing fraud, wouldn't they make it more meaningful? Paul only dropped from 14.5% to 13%, looks like, while Romney rose from 23% to 27.5%, and G dropped from 45% to 42%. It's not like any result changed, or even the relative positions strongly changed.

Why would they commit fraud based on precinct size, anyway? Wouldn't they just change all results?

 

[Liberty1789]

Maine Doodle

Based on initial vote report.

My previous methods were not too convincing on Maine because of the small number of data points. Oscillators are much more revealing.

The probability of Romney going from 33% at 40% of votes to 40% at 100% is 1 in 6,105,209,235,838,670.

 

[bbwarfield]

I don't know though -- if they're committing fraud, wouldn't they make it more meaningful? Paul only dropped from 14.5% to 13%, looks like, while Romney rose from 23% to 27.5%, and G dropped from 45% to 42%. It's not like any result changed, or even the relative positions strongly changed.

actually.... if this is a preprogrammed algorithm... they were expecting Romney to be within margin of errors of the real winner.... or even win right out and increase his lead....

No one expected Newt to just lamblast into first like he did

 

[Liberty1789]

I don't know though -- if they're committing fraud, wouldn't they make it more meaningful? Paul only dropped from 14.5% to 13%, looks like, while Romney rose from 23% to 27.5%, and G dropped from 45% to 42%. It's not like any result changed, or even the relative positions strongly changed.

Why would they commit fraud based on precinct size, anyway? Wouldn't they just change all results?

The fraud rate never goes above about 17%. It does not reverse a landslide against you. Delegates were proportional though, IIRC.

 

[tremendoustie]

The probability of Romney going from 33% at 40% of votes to 40% at 100% is 1 in 6,105,209,235,838,670.

If there's no actual correlation. Can we plot these same results using exit polling data? If Romney's plot is flat in that graph, then this does seem very strange.

 

[bbwarfield]

If there's no actual correlation. Can we plot these same results using exit polling data? If Romney's plot is flat in that graph, then this does seem very strange.

exit poll data predicted exactly what was reported on election night..... also its one set of data for the whole state.... no significant analysis could be done to plot such kind of useful charts

 

[The Man]

The only independent exit polling numbers I found for the 2012 SC Primary are as follows, word for word:
"Checked at 3 P.M. and with 1698 interviews it's:

Gingrich 34%
Romney 26%
Paul 25%
Santorum 15%

"Sample skews much larger (40% under 45) and more male (57.5%) than 2008 primary (33% and 51% respectively).Since Paul does better with these demographics, expect this number to drop as the full vote comes in."

 

[tremendoustie]

exit poll data predicted exactly what was reported on election night..... also its one set of data for the whole state.... no significant analysis could be done to plot such kind of useful charts

I thought it had been proven, based on exit polling, that there was no correlation between population density and romney support.

Apart from data proving otherwise, it's not hard for me to believe that there would be 4% greater Romney support in large districts.

 

[CTRattlesnake]

So the percentages on the x axis represent total vote going from the smallest precincts to largest right?

 

[Liberty1789]

So the percentages on the x axis represent total vote going from the smallest precincts to largest right?

Yes...

 

[bbwarfield]

I thought it had been proven, based on exit polling, that there was no correlation between population density and romney support.

Apart from data proving otherwise, it's not hard for me to believe that there would be 4% greater Romney support in large districts.

it was...once again if you believe the eixt polling.... the problem is they dont release the raw data.... so you just have "such and such a percent of urban voters went to romney... such an amount went to paul..... ect." In one precint in one county you can expect a variance... but is very odd to see a whole state go against the generalization of the exit polls

 

[bbwarfield]

The only independent exit polling numbers I found for the 2012 SC Primary are as follows, word for word:
"Checked at 3 P.M. and with 1698 interviews it's:

Gingrich 34%
Romney 26%
Paul 25%
Santorum 15%

"Sample skews much larger (40% under 45) and more male (57.5%) than 2008 primary (33% and 51% respectively).Since Paul does better with these demographics, expect this number to drop as the full vote comes in."

would these numbers be more in line with the unflipped totals?

 

[S.Shorland]

Maine 'original reported figures'? So at 10% vote count Paul was at 40%? In the new document i hope there are links to all original data.I should save it all too and make google cache records or whatever.