Flipping the vote against Ron Paul in South Carolina?

[tremendoustie]

it was...once again if you believe the eixt polling.... the problem is they dont release the raw data.... so you just have "such and such a percent of urban voters went to romney... such an amount went to paul..... ect." In one precint in one county you can expect a variance... but is very odd to see a whole state go against the generalization of the exit polls

So what's the breakdown of urban/suburban/rural exit polling for romney?

Of course, the margin of error of these exit polls is likely to be larger than the 4% difference for romney, and certainly far larger than the 1.5% difference for Paul. We're not talking about huge numbers here.

Again, a 4% difference based on precinct size, for romney, doesn't seem hard to believe to me. I would need strong evidence showing there's no real correlation.

In Manchester NH, for example, the largest precincts were all suburban, which, understandably, went harder for romney.

 

[SCButterfly]

No one expected Newt to just lamblast into first like he did

We can't be sure of that.

(Note: the time above the FBN icon and who was already on the phone.)
Our "voting machines" are not even taken off-line until 7:00 p.m.

Sorry to muck with the statistical bent here, I'm still trying to pull myself out from under my "SC Rock of Shame". :o

 

[hillertexas]

We need to get this out to the other campaigns...Newt, Santorum...even Huntsman, Cain, and Bachman (Bachman was siphoned from in one state). We need someone who already has the media's attention to cry foul. Accuse Romney of rigging the election. But we need to let our campaign know what is going on asap for sure. It just has to get out. Tell anyone who will listen.

 

[affa]

ok, based on feedback here i started a new 'summary' thread. basically, get more eyes on it. it'll likely split conversation between two threads, but that's the price paid to have a summary so new people can get on board.

http://www.ronpaulforums.com/showth...orythmic-vote-flipping.&p=4227543#post4227543

LIBERTY-- there are already people asking questions that you should answer.

 

[CTRattlesnake]

Where is Liberty getting this data?

 

[Liberty1789]

All the data if from state election web sites or GOP's. I need only county name, precinct name, votes cast per candidates.

Reconstructing my job from the ground up is therefore very easy for a math guy. 300 hundred million people. I cannot believe nobody will do it/ is doing it...

 

[CTRattlesnake]

All the data if from state election web sites or GOP's. I need only county name, precinct name, votes cast per candidates.

Reconstructing my job from the ground up is therefore very easy for a math guy. 300 hundred million people. I cannot believe nobody will do it/ is doing it...

Ok...thanks for all your work, this is big, do you have plans to put out an official report? Or send it to a guy like Ben Swann?

 

[bbwarfield]

We can't be sure of that.

(Note: the time above the FBN icon and who was already on the phone.)
Our "voting machines" are not even taken off-line until 7:00 p.m.

Sorry to muck with the statistical bent here, I'm still trying to pull myself out from under my "SC Rock of Shame". :o

that tv has no sound! : ) apparently we went to the same watching party

 

[SCButterfly]

Ben Swann?

http://www.dailypaul.com/214415/guess-what-sc-primary-results-in-question?page=3#comment-2243192

http://www.dailypaul.com/214415/guess-what-sc-primary-results-in-question?page=2#comment-2243757

 

[SCButterfly]

that tv has no sound! : ) apparently we went to the same watching party

!!!!!! I could just hug your neck. You just blew my mind knowing that about the teevee. What a small world. **Twilight Zone music playing here** Yeppers, was there.

 

[bbwarfield]

!!!!!! I could just hug your neck. You just blew my mind knowing that about the teevee. What a small world. **Twilight Zone music playing here** Yeppers, was there.

ever since i dont think election results are the same without listening to a harrowing account of Homeland Security given by a holocaust survivor (I guess it was her parents but it sounded like she left just before)

 

[SCButterfly]

One more thingy: This probably means nothing. Me and a fellow RP SCGOP dude both landed with an oddity (to us) on our tapes. We consulted one another and never followed up on either end so maybe y'all know what this means. What is this on the very bottom of the tape? "UnderVotes for Above Contest". Both of our precincts had it.

Is this like a "test vote" in the beginning or what? Y'all know?

 

[SCButterfly]

ever since i dont think election results are the same without listening to a harrowing account of Homeland Security given by a holocaust survivor (I guess it was her parents but it sounded like she left just before)

You should have been at my table then. The Ron Paul "Thelma and Louise" was discovered at that table. I guarantee it was more fun.

 

[The Man]

Hey Liberty 1789, Does your X-Axis correspond to the percentage within each County? If so, does this mean that the precincts are arranged not by absolute number of voters, but by % of vote in its respective County? The graph doesn't look like I would have expected.

As you can see, only Santorum was more or less left alone when one considers the full state. Paul and Gingrich badly hurt.

 

[Liberty1789]

Hey Liberty 1789, Does your X-Axis correspond to the percentage within each County? If so, does this mean that the precincts are arranged not by absolute number of voters, but by % of vote in its respective County? The graph doesn't look like I would have expected.

1 data point per precinct, starting with precinct with lowest vote tally, as ever. The list goes like that:

Fairfield Blackstock
Florence Florence 9
Williamsburg Morrisville
Sumter Bates
Hampton Garnett
Hampton Gifford
Dorchester Givhans 2
Charleston N Charleston 1
Orangeburg Nix
Richland Ward #8
Georgetown DreamKeepers

EDIT: I count only the votes of the big 4 when sorting

 

[bbwarfield]

One more thingy: This probably means nothing. Me and a fellow RP SCGOP dude both landed with an oddity (to us) on our tapes. We consulted one another and never followed up on either end so maybe y'all know what this means. What is this on the very bottom of the tape? "UnderVotes for Above Contest". Both of our precincts had it.

Is this like a "test vote" in the beginning or what? Y'all know?

undervotes are when someone doesnt finish voting... pick someone.... walk out of the booth and never hit the confirm button would seem to be the most common reason on electronic machines...... in hand ballots an under vote is when someone picks two candidates, no candidates, or doesnt clearly mark a candidate (check mark over laps into other boxes) or on punch cards where it dimpled, pregnant, hanging..... just means counting it would require discernment and the person counting does not feel comfortable saying "this person meant to vote for x"

in electronic it either means a machine error during that persons vote or they didnt hit the confirm screen

 

[cjm]

I think it's time for me to unsubscribe this thread. I've added all I can. I wish you all the best of luck and I eagerly await the final report. I'll see you in the other threads

 

[Aden]

What do X & Y Axis represent on the charts on the right side?

 

[Liberty1789]

X = % of cumulative votes, sorted by ascending orcer of precinct vote tally.
Y = given the known final score of the candidate, % probability that the candidate's score is no better than what it is after X% votes counted

 

[CTRattlesnake]

Hey Liberty 1789, Does your X-Axis correspond to the percentage within each County? If so, does this mean that the precincts are arranged not by absolute number of voters, but by % of vote in its respective County? The graph doesn't look like I would have expected.

The x axis is total votes.

0% meaning 0 votes, and 100% meaning every vote counted. That being said, the totals are arranged so that the smaller precincts are put first (on the left side) and slowly increase in number until you reach the largest precincts on the right at 100%.

The graph shows how votes become skewed in romney's direction once you reach the larger precincts and how he wins an inordinate amount of votes there.